FanPost

How the Eagles Could still Get the Number 1 Overall pick

People say it's not gonna happen. But I think it's still possible. 6 teams have a record of 3-8 or lower(including us)

Let's look at their remaining schedule, and predictions based on playing around with the ESPN Playoff Machine(I assume we lose all of our next games, except for Eagles and Panthers):

Kansas City Chiefs:

  • Carolina L
  • Cleveland W
  • Oakland W
  • Indianapolis L
  • Denver W
  • Projected Final Record 4-12

Why do I still believe Kansas City can stumble out of Number One? Carolina they could still beat, but I see them still losing. But how do they beat Denver? Simple, I believe they acquire the Number 2 or 3 seed in the playoffs, and rest their starters. Anyway, we have to hope Baltimore loses to Denver and Pittsburgh or any other team, while Denver wins out except at Kansas City. If everything falls in place, Denver will have nothing to play for but rest their starters against Kansas City. Or if that does happen, we have to hope Carolina stumbles at KC this week.

Jacksonville:

All the Jaguars have to do is win two games, and they're out of it. I see them winning three with the Chad Henne bandwagon. It's possible they win all five of these games, Maybe Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow can run into Brad Moore again. The Patriots could have the division locked up with no chance of getting higher than a Number 4 seed and rest their starters.

Cleveland:

  • Oakland W
  • Kansas City L
  • Washington L
  • Broncos L
  • Pittsburgh W

If the Eagles go 3-13, we won't have to worry about the Browns-Steelers game. But, according to the machine, the Steelers are locked into a 6th seed at week 17, perfectly reasonable to see them rest their starters. I don't want our record to be tied with the Browns because we beat them Week 1. Cleveland must beat Oakland if the Pittsburgh win doesn't occur.

Oakland:

  • Cleveland L
  • Denver L
  • Kansas City L
  • Carolina W
  • San Diego W

This team is a dark horse to pick Number 1 overall, all we need them to do is win just 1 game, I think they upset Carolina and San Diego. We can't have them beat Denver, Cleveland or Kansas City. If they lose to Carolina, they must beat San Diego.

Critical Games:(Teams we need to root for in bold)

Week 13:

  • Bills-Jaguars
  • Kansas City- Carolina
  • Broncos-Buccaneers
  • Cleveland-Oakland
  • Pittsburgh-Baltimore
  • Philadelphia-Dallas

Week 14:

Week 15

Week 16

  • Chiefs-Colts
  • Redskins-Eagles
  • Panthers-Raiders
  • Broncos-Browns

Week 17

  • Giants-Eagles
  • Panthers-Saints
  • Jaguars-Titans
  • Broncos-Chiefs
  • Steelers-Browns
  • Raiders-Chargers

Out of these 27 games, I'm calculating 18-19+ of these games going our way gives us the 1st overall pick. At minimum, the Eagles have to lose their next 5 games, Chiefs must win at least 3 games(With their easy schedule, it's possible).Thankfully, the Browns beat the Steelers, so they only have to win one more game. The Raiders must win once, and The Jags must win 2 games to pass the Eagles. So at minimum, 12 games could still do it. Football Outsiders gives us a 5.6% chance of the Number 1 overall pick, third best chance as of right now, but it hasn't accounted for the Desean Jackson, Lesean McCoy and Micheal Vick injuries. The Chiefs have a 58% chance of winning it, while the Jags have a 27% chance according to FO. In my opinion, the Eagles have a 12-14% chance as of right now.

Projected Order If we get Number 1 pick:

  1. PHI
  2. TEN
  3. ARI
  4. KAN
  5. JAX
  6. CAR
  7. STL
  8. CLE
  9. BUF
  10. OAK
  11. DET
  12. MIA
  13. SD

What Do We Do?

(Some of these may be somewhat unreasonable...)(REMEMBER THAT!)

1. Draft Geno Smith

2. Trade:

Eagles Get:

  • 5th overall pick
  • Sign and Trade Derek Cox(One of the best CB'sin the NFL)
  • 1st round pick in 2014
  • 3rd round pick
  • If not Cox, then a second round pick this year.

Jags get Number One Overall Pick

3. Trade

Eagles Switch to 3-4 Defense, they get:

  • 12th overall pick
  • Kyle Williams
  • Marcel Dareus
  • If not Dareus or Williams, 2nd and 3rd rd pick this year and 1st round pick next year.

Bills get: Number 1 overall Pick

4.Trade

Eagles Get:

  • 4th pick in draft
  • Eric Berry(Ooh, that'd be awesome).
  • If not Eric Berry, then 1st round draft pick in 2014 and second rounder this year

Kansas City gets Number One overall( They are drooling for Geno Smith)
5.Trade
Eagles get:

  • 3rd Overall Pick
  • 2nd round pick
  • 4th round pick
  • Greg Toler

Cardinals get 1st pick
6. Do something stupid
Take more than 10 minutes to take your pick and get skipped one pick
7. Trade


Eagles get:

  • 9th overall pick
  • 2nd round pick
  • 1st round pick in 2014
  • 2nd round pick in 2014
  • 2nd round pick in 2015

Oakland gets 1st pick

My Thoughts:

These are just some of many. Anyway, what do I think? I've just changed my mind over the past couple of days. I want Geno Smith. Why? Can we agree on one thing, if Foles doesn't even win a game, can we say he is not our future? I do not see much in him anyway. Anyway with Smith, with the situation we are in, we can't act as if the QB position is a luxury to us. Geno Smith isn't a strong number one prospect, but he has a far better chance of succeeding in the NFL than any other QB out there right now. Nassib,Dysert, Murray,Bray whatever, they still have less than a 1/2, chance succeeding in the NFL, no matter how much you like them. I believe Smith has almost a 2/3's chance of having a positive impact on his team. Even if Smith reached at least 80% of his total potential in terms of stats and wins, and we traded down, we would have to hope at least 2 of the players we get become a Top 10 Player at their position including a Quarterback we'd draft, so chances are we would get the wrong end of the deal. I'll talk about Geno pretty soon.

One other thing I've wanted to talk about. Some people have said that the Eagles should draft Luke Joeckel at the 3rd-6th pick, and put him at right tackle if Jason Peters comes back strong, or we get a Star Free Agent Left Tackle. That I believe is a very dumb idea. A good pick in the NFL Draft usually means that player has a very positive impact on their team, not stats. So explain to me how Joeckel would create as much as a positive impact not protecting the blindside of a QB if Micheal Vick leaves. Not only that, Luke Joeckel would have to learn a totally new position, hindering his chances of succeeding in the NFL. I hope the Eagles look at someone else if the Left Tackle position is solved.

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