Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Elsa

Here are my pick against the spread for week 11 in the NFL

Cardinals at Falcons (-9.5) - Normally you know I love to pick against the big lines, but I have to say that this one is pretty reasonable. The Falcons are a really good home team and its kind of surprising to see this line below 10. Pick: Falcons

Browns at Cowboys (-9.5) - Similar circumstances as the last game but these two teams are worse than their counterparts. This line has jumped up over the week to the point where I think the Browns are actually a pretty decent value. Pick: Browns

Packers at Lions (+3.5) - We get our first home dog of the week, but its overwhelming how much money is coming in on the Packers here (almost 72%). This smart guy money in Vegas is right more often than not. Pick: Packers

Bengals at Chiefs (+3.5) - This is a tough game because both teams have poor records against the spread. The Bengals certainly have the momentum after their beatdown of the Giants, but they have consistently been a team this year that lets you down just as you think they get it together. Still, a lot of the trends favor at least a TD win here for them. Pick: Bengals

Jets at Rams (-3.5) - I'm surprised the Rams aren't getting a little more respect here at home. They are 6-3 ATS this year and hosting a Jets team that is just falling to pieces. This is not going to be a pretty game by any standard, but I like the Rams to cover comfortably. Pick: Rams

Eagles at Redskins (-3.5) - The Eagles are the worst team in the NFL against the spread this season. Part of that might have been due to them being overrated early, but at 1-7-1 ATS, it's pretty clear that they aren't a team you can trust. With a rookie QB on the road there's not a trend, model or simulation that favors the Eagles to cover here. Pick: Redskins

Buccaneers at Panthers (+1) - Bettors are really buying into the Bucs this year and for good reason, they're 7-2 ATS. This game is essentially a pick and I like the Bucs, who are winners of 4 of their last 5. Pick: Bucs

Jaguars at Texans (-15) - Here is our first really nutty line of the week and I've said all year to go against the favorite in these cases and I've not been wrong once. Sure, the Texans will win this game, but you really have to think about how big a margin 15 points is in the NFL. Houston could win 27-14 and not cover. Any late garbage time score or TD by the Jags likely gets them a cover. Pick: Jaguars

Saints at Raiders (+4.5) - Yes, Oakland is kind of a mess, but did we forget that the Saints are a below .500 team? Heading on the road, to the west coast playing outdoors and they're a more than 3 points favorite? We've seen better Saints teams, much better in fact, outright lose in this situation. Pick: Raiders

Chargers at Broncos (-8.5) - Bettors are very split on this game with slightly more money coming in on the Broncos, but that really seems to be mostly based on sentiment that the Broncos are surging. Looking at it objectively, the models really favor the Chargers to cover here. Pick: Chargers

Colts at Patriots (-9.5) - This is my pick of the week. We've got 2 6-3 teams playing on another here and one is a near 10 point favorite. That's just silly. Not only that, but Indy is better ATS than the Pats this year. Pick: Colts

Ravens at Steelers (+3.5) - This is always a slugfest, but without Big Ben I'm surprised to see Pitt as only a 3.5 point dog, even at home. Pick: Ravens

Bears at 49ers - No line posted yet. Waiting for news on Alex Smith

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