Week 7 NFL picks: The only good teams in the AFC meet!

Patrick Smith

We pick every week 7 NFL game against the spread.

We pick every week 7 NFL game against the spread.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) - A matchup of 2 good defenses makes this big line a little hard to understand. Both teams are 4-2, it's not a hard trip to make for the Seahawks, the 49ers were terrible last week. There is a potential for a guy like Russell Wilson to have a stinker tonight, but really this looks like good value for Seattle. Pick: Seahawks

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-6.5) - Can you believe that these are the only two teams above .500 in the entire AFC? And with the Texans coming off a bad loss you would have thought this line would be closer, but the big injuries for the Ravens seems to have kept it solidly in the Texans favor. I think that's an overreaction. Pick: Ravens

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6.5) - Trends are very split on this game and as a result money is coming in very even on each side. The Giants are firing on all cylinders right now though and I think they end up putting up a lot of points on the Washington defense. Pick: Giants

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10) - You might be surprised to learn that these teams are both 3-3. The Patriots have not been nearly as good as they have in recent years and the Jets haven't been as bad as everyone has thought they've been. Trends and the Accuscore simulator both point to a Jets cover here. Pick: Jets

Tennessee Titans over Buffalo Bills (-3.5) - Bills get a half point more than the requisite 3 home points here. I think they may deserve more. Tennessee has some extra rest having played last Thursday, but they could also be in for a letdown game after their emotional home win against Pittsburgh. Pick: Bills

Green Bay Packers over St. Louis Rams (+5) - I was really expecting this game to be a great value given the Packers huge win last week, but St Louis isn't a huge home dog here. Green Bay is playing the 2nd of back to back road games here, but 5 points is reasonable enough to stick with them. Plus, the similar games model heavily favors GB to cover here. Pick: Packers

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) - I'm a bit surprised the 4-2 Cardinals aren't getting a little more respect here, but the loss of Kevin Kolb and the prospect of starting John Skelton is probably scaring some people. Fact is, the difference in their performances over the past couple seasons hasn't really been that different and Skelton did outplay Kolb in the preseason. I like Arizona to cover here. Pick: Cardinals

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (+1) - This is a game I really don't like this week and the 1 point line only makes me dislike it more. It's more or less a pick-em between two pretty unpredictable teams. I went with the simulator here, which predicts a 4 point Cowboys win after 10,000 simulations. Pick: Dallas

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) - The Bucs have actually been 4-1 against the spread this season and are home dogs here, which typically bodes well. That said, people are flooding sportsbooks in Vegas with money on the Saints. almost 71% of bets have come in on New Orleans. Sometimes wisdom of the crowds isn't bad. Pick: Saints

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (-1) - Three straight 1 point lines here. But the trends and simulators really seem to say this should be close. Pick: Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-4) - Here we have two 1-4 teams who are 2-3 against the spread this year. But at only 4 points I really like the Raiders to cover at home. Pick: Raiders

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+1) - This should really be interesting because as good as Cincy was at times last year they were blanked by the Steelers and Ravens. To jump up into that next tier they're going to have to beat a good team at some point and they really haven't. They fold in big games, whereas the Steelers always seem to play well with their backs against the wall. Trends, sims & the crowds say Pittsburgh wins here. Pick: Steelers

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5) - Detroit has burned believers this year going 1-4 against the spread, while the Bears have gone 4-1. Trends really seem to point to a comfortable Bears cover here. Pick: Bears

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