Numberfire: Inconsistency Killed The Eagles This Season

by JasonB on Jan 25, 2012 3:00 PM EST in Philadelphia Eagles News

The guys from Numberfire wrote a piece for ESPN Insider yesterday highlighting the top five under-performing teams in the NFL. Obviously the Eagles were among them. Their conclusion was that inconsistency and poor fourth quarter play is what killed the Eagles, which really any idiot could have seen, but the methodology with which they reached this conclusion was interesting.

Ah, the dream team! With so much talent, it's still shocking that the Eagles missed the playoffs. The Eagles were the anti-Tebows this season, playing well except when they needed to: in the fourth quarter.

The Eagles blew fourth-quarter lead after fourth-quarter lead, culminating in a meltdown against the Kevin Kolb-less Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. All these losses were made worse by the fact that Lesean McCoy was the most efficient rusher in the league (on the league's second-most efficient rushing team based on strength of schedule), adding 27 points to the Eagles' offense above expectation in the running game and 16 in the passing game.

The disappointment wasn't just on offense. Despite all criticism of new defensive coordinator Juan Castillo, the Eagles were actually above-average defensively, preventing three points per game from being scored that a league-average defense would have allowed.

Their downfall lies in the inconsistent nature of the team: their standard deviation (a nerdy way to represent the team's consistency) in our opponent-adjusted net expected points (the same basic scale used to calculate Total QBR) was the second-highest in the league. As a favorite, you want to be as consistent as possible, something the Eagles will certainly need to address moving forward.

They estimated that the Eagles would have been expected to win 9.75 games based on their performance this season, when in fact they only won 8.

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Surprise surprise. And things like this (inconsistency and 4th Q meltdowns and not using McCoy) usually goes on the faults of the coaching staff.

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by immynimmy on Jan 25, 2012 3:26 PM EST reply actions

I think its both the coaches and the players. The players get complacent and bad things happen.

by bdawk4ever on Jan 25, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

On the plus side, these things tend to regress from one season to the next, so if the Birds do exactly the same thing next year we’d expect a 2 game improvement, all things being equal. On the minus side, anyone who saw blown lead after blown lead learned to distrust regression to the mean arguments…

"Difficulties strengthen the mind, as labor does the body."
― Seneca

by NJBammer on Jan 25, 2012 3:35 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

We also assumed the next DC had to be better than McDermott.

The Eagles have a way of surprising us.

by Tracer Bullet on Jan 25, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

Well, in his defense

the defense did improve in every measurable way, so there was that.

"Difficulties strengthen the mind, as labor does the body."
― Seneca

by NJBammer on Jan 25, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions

In McD's defense,

Nnamdi > Dimitri Patterson

DRC > Dimitri Patterson

Jenkins > Bunkley

Babin > Graham

Improvements were certainly made. Just not on the coaching.

by UnclaimedFright on Jan 25, 2012 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

shrug

I have said this before and I’ll say it again, players>coaching on defense. Defense is where physical talent is just so much more important than scheme or calling – the offense is where coaches can shine, with defense it’s get good players and have them play in systems where they can shine. I don’t see much which tells me JC was unable to do that, at least not after the first few games when everything was settling down.

On the other hand, my theory means if we fire JC we should see another good year on defense, so I’m pretty indifferent to Juan’s fate as a fan.

"Difficulties strengthen the mind, as labor does the body."
― Seneca

by NJBammer on Jan 25, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I disagree with that completely

Coaching is extremely important on both sides of the ball.

I'm great like Gatsby.

by Clint Eastwood on Jan 25, 2012 6:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

DRC was not better then Patterson this year and DRC was not better in the slot then Jose this year DRC is really overrated by the fan base for some reason

by StevenKerwood on Jan 27, 2012 1:16 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

poor fundamentals

It seemed you guys always underachieved by mistakes like blown coverages, poor tackling, douchesean Jackson and the other receivers dropping balls, etc. idk if this falls on ur coaches or what.

Tony Romo, Michael Vick, and Rex Grossman are down with JPP
Die hard Giants fan since I was 4
J-E-T-S Just-End-The-Season

by JasonPierrePwned on Jan 25, 2012 3:37 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions

douchesean Jackson

That miracle still hurts, doesn’t it?

I'll give you a cookie if you know what my pic is from.

by Avant-Garde on Jan 25, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

not really

I got over it after a month honestly

Tony Romo, Michael Vick, and Rex Grossman are down with JPP
Die hard Giants fan since I was 4
J-E-T-S Just-End-The-Season

by JasonPierrePwned on Jan 25, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions

I love the Eagles more than anything...

but I have to admit, DoucheSean Jackson made me laugh. Fucking troll. lol.

by Dallas Sucks! on Jan 25, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

His comment didn’t really seem trollish to me. Hell a lot of Eagles Fans’ dislike Jackson. Look at how many people post that say we should trade him/let him walk.

El Donkerino (if you're not into the whole brevity thing).
I miss me some Brian Dawkins :(

by El Donkerino on Jan 25, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

That was definitely a troll. And I think most Eagles fans would still retain DeSean Jackson, just not for a king’s ransom.

by Dallas Sucks! on Jan 25, 2012 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

yeap

The Giants would like to retain Osi for $1 million too

by a hay on Jan 25, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I'm gonna weight in on "Not Troll"

Dude was totally respectful to everyone by DeSean.

If DeSean played for the Giants, I’d call him “doucheshawn” too.

by UnclaimedFright on Jan 25, 2012 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

What about MeSean Jackson? Haha…

by ILL Eagle on Jan 25, 2012 8:25 PM EST up reply actions

Eagles would take a hit they trade him/let him walk but I do find it hard to root for him at times. ‘DoucheSean’ isn’t too far from the truth. Sure that we have heard just the tip of the iceberg about the number of issues the Eagles have had with Jackson on and especially off the field (e.g., showing up for meetings on time, etc).

by MG77 on Jan 25, 2012 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

He’s gone.

Bleeding Green Nation

Follow @Route36_BGN

by Route36 on Jan 25, 2012 4:14 PM EST reply actions

Which one?

AR should have to wear a Flava Flav necklace until he learns how to manage a clock.
I am the proud target of temper tantrums.

by KByars on Jan 25, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions

NyGiants2012.

Bleeding Green Nation

Follow @Route36_BGN

by Route36 on Jan 26, 2012 2:03 AM EST up reply actions

Same issue with my golf game.

Formerly DeSean10
36-5-20-JJ -- Forever Bleeding Green

by AnthroEagle on Jan 25, 2012 4:32 PM EST reply actions

what about skittel-dee-winks?
Or “catch an Amerindian by the toe”?

by waterfield on Jan 25, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

Marty stays...

Chuck Pagano to the Colts. Yay or Boo?

#IUSucks

This is college basketball.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by benjapal on Jan 25, 2012 4:33 PM EST reply actions

Meh

Last name Ever
First name Greatest

#PayDeSeanJackson

by Djax10 on Jan 25, 2012 11:31 PM EST up reply actions

Marty's bizzaro world playcalling is inconsistent?

I don’t see that as novel. They also could have measured how much less we ran the ball in the forth quarter and how many run/pass options we gave Ronnie Brown on 1st and goal. There is a reason no one else is offering him work. Juan>Marty.

by buddyball9 on Jan 25, 2012 4:42 PM EST reply actions

Marty's offense has set franchise records.

But I do think he’s a little overrated by some and very underrated by others.

I'm great like Gatsby.

by Clint Eastwood on Jan 25, 2012 6:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Agreed

by MG77 on Jan 25, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

Mike Vick & #5's improv led to great #s

Not Marty. I have a cowboy fan always bitching about their coaches, when I asked to trade OCs he said “Only if we trade owners,too” Jerry Jones=Marty.

by buddyball9 on Jan 25, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions