ESPN's New Passing Stat Rates Michael Vick As Elite
by JasonB on Aug 1, 2011 4:00 PM EDT
in Philadelphia Eagles News
Email
PrintESPN is set to launch a brand new stat aimed at better quantifying a quarterback's performance. For years, we've used "QB rating" to help judge QBs, but the problem with that has always been that it simply measures passing performance and does so with no context at all. As we know, with football, context really is everything. A meaningless hail mary interception at the end of a half has the same negative effect on a guy's QB rating as Brett Favre throwing a pick late in the fourth quarter of a playoff game.
Obviously, those two interceptions are not equal and shouldn't be treated as such. That's one of the many things that ESPN hopes to fix with this new passing stat, which they plan to reveal and fully explain in a SportsCenter special this Friday. They aren't revealing the system yet, but we do know that it is on a 100 point scale and that they have given an outline of QBs scored in 2010.
Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.
Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.
It should be interesting to see just how different the ratings in this system end up being than QB rating. Because according to this outline, there aren't huge differences, especially at the top. Last year's top five in terms of QB rating were Brady, Rivers, Rodgers, Vick and Roethlisberger. Either way though, I'm excited to see what they've come up with. QB rating really doesn't give us the whole picture...
75 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I heard about this
excited to see exactly how this new rating system will work.
Get Better, Not Bitter.
by BigBlueIntervention on Aug 1, 2011 4:03 PM EDT reply actions
Huh?
Curious to see ow Eli is well above average when he threw so many picks last year
Not trying to back up Eli or anything
But if I remember correctly there were a lot of tipped ball interceptions for him last year. Still theres no excuse for throwing like 30 picks..
Right and presumably this system would weight those differently, which it should.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
How Eli is “well above average” is beyond me.
"Don't 'O' me. This is a serious issue here."
-d-jackfan10
"The only game I play is football, and to me it's not a game."
-Jeremy Maclin
by McNabb2Maclin4Philly on Aug 1, 2011 4:10 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Haha, it was inevitable that it'd come up
Get Better, Not Bitter.
by BigBlueIntervention on Aug 1, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
nice haha
Get Better, Not Bitter.
by BigBlueIntervention on Aug 1, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
There was a post about this on the national SBNation site:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2011/8/1/2308886/espn-stat-passer-rating-total-qbr
I have a couple of comments there, but to sum up, it sounds like this factors in some measure of “clutchiness” where the same play is weighted more if it happens in the fourth quarter of a tie game. That’s bad news, as there’s no objective evidence that a “clutch” play requires greater skill than a non-clutch play, at least not to the point where it can be reliable measured. That sort of thing skews results badly, especially in small sample sizes which are a big problem in a 16-game season.
So, my opinion is that this is a “junk stat” and will hopefully go by the wayside immediately. It has some good ideas, and I’d love to see a reasonable QB rating stat developed, but it sounds as though this isn’t it.
Well, I’d like to see the methodology before I condemn it or love it.
I’ll be interested to see to what extent this “clutchiness” is involved. Like I said, all INTs are not created the same.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
Sure, but if they’re measuring it purely based on the fourth quarter being more important than the first, that’s faulty. I agree that we should see the methodology first, but my enthusiasm is guarded for the time being.
First quarter TDs against a team whose offense is built around ball control should count for more, as they might take an opposing offense out of its game. And fourth quarter TD passes in games in which you’re trailing by 21 points (unless you’re the Eagles in New Meadowlands) should be worth fewer rating points. It’s almost like the final score/result of a game has to be considered for this new method, ergo no more flashy graphics at halftime comparing quarterback ratings. The aforementioned trailing TD pass would retroactively be made worth more in the event that it lead to a come-from-behind DeSean Jackson walk-off punt return touchdown.
I’m cautiously skeptical about this.
I also thought it was kinda dumb that a QB didn’t get ‘credit’ on his rating if the TD happened to come from the ground game. Like a 65-yard pass to the 1, followed by a fullback dive-for-TD somehow made the pass less valuable. That’s why the TD:Int ratio is cool and all, but faulty, IMO.
Except that shouldn’t be the case at all. These stats are intended to reflect how well the QB did, not how his play affected his team. Factoring in score/situation is completely wrong because the QB has no control over it and there’s no indication of what, if any, effect the situation has on the QB’s production. It shouldn’t be included at all.
Well, I’d like to see the methodology before I condemn it or love it.
Agree completely, but when the article about it gives almost no explanation of what it actually does and instead says "The methodology is complex — one of the formula’s key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines — but the resulting “Total Quarterback Rating” (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion," I’m skeptical. Black box statistics make me cringe.
Just to elaborate…
If it’s a complete black box, then there are two possibilities: it more or less meshes with what you believe, and then it’s not doing you any actual good, or it disagrees with your opinions, and you say “I don’t trust this thing” and ignore it.
You have to understand what it does and why that makes sense if you’re ever going to trust it over whatever opinions you may have formed on your own.
For years, they used the passer rating, not the QB rating. The new rating is called the QB rating, and it actually takes rushing into account, which it should. I am curious to see the how they tally the metrics, they are supposed to release it on Friday.
matt ryan being elite
is the strangest one to me
"Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there.
Sorry, but that’s simply not how it works."
Follow me on Twitter: @alexvanroekel
Yeah same here
I seem to be in the minority, but I think Matt Ryan is nothing special.
No, no
Im there with you. Im not sure why he is hailed as Matty Ice as really, what he has he done to be so deserving of that title.
Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination.-Oscar Wilde
"I would go to battle any time with these guys"-MV7
haha yeah
actually he has done quite the opposite.. 3 tds 4 ints in the playoffs 0-2 record//ouchhhhhhh.
Two games.
You can’t base a whole lot off of two games. Besides, no one thought Peyton Manning or John Elway could hang in the postseason either, until they did.
Not that its necessarily wrong
but I hate that argument…it can be said about anyone in any sport
"Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there.
Sorry, but that’s simply not how it works."
Follow me on Twitter: @alexvanroekel
Which argument?
Personally, I hate the argument that two bad playoff games warrants listing a guy as a choke artist. Anyone can have two bad games. It’s not enough evidence to draw many conclusions from.
Two things.
For one, I think pointing out his poor playoff record is mostly a function of his nickname being about how is supposedly “clutch.” Obviously it just doesn’t fit.
Second, I don’t know that I agree with you about “not enough evidence.” We’re talking about football here. There’s only 16 games in a season. Two games certainly doesn’t tell the whole story, but it’s not completely insignificant either. Two NFL games are equivalent to about 20 baseball games.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
Obviously, I get why people think the name doesn’t fit, but I think part of the problem is that people aren’t looking past the name and at the player himself.
Two NFL games = 20 baseball games is partly correct, in terms of a season. But that doesn’t mean it’s equally indicative. Hard to say what the real equivalence is there. But even if it is, 20 baseball games isn’t a large enough sample size either.
I mean the argument that said player
was believed to be unable to accomplish the big goal until they finally did.
"Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there.
Sorry, but that’s simply not how it works."
Follow me on Twitter: @alexvanroekel
I think he was talking about your statement that
no one thought Peyton Manning or John Elway could hang in the postseason either, until they did.
It really doesn’t mean much because he’s not John Elway or Peyton Manning.
Personally, I hate the argument that two bad playoff games warrants listing a guy as a choke artist.
But somehow those two bad playoff games warrant him to have the nickname Matty Ice?
Eagles... :)
Isn't his nickname a carry-over from college though?
I didn’t think he earned it for anything NFL related. I thought it was just a frat-boy friendly nickname when he was at BC that stuck.
I agree with you Deuce
“Matty Ice” (hate that nickname) isn’t anything special in my opinion. He has a great running game and a great WR in Roddy White.
I’d love to see him QB a team that isn’t a run first team. I bet he’d drop a lot on the talk of good QB’s . I’ll give him average at this time , but he’s not in the top 5 or 6 like everyone is putting him.
On the contrary, I think QB’s on run-first teams often get less credit because they don’t rack up big passing yards or TD’s. The most hyped QB’s tend to be on pass-first teams: think Manning, Favre, Warner…
I have to disagree with you
First premise: an elite quarterback is basically never on a run first team, at worst they are equal.
Second premise:when it comes down to the next tier, a running game makes everything easier on an above average qb and is what is the difference between a few INT’s here and there and a few TD’s here and there, which for this group are way more important than yards.
"Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there.
Sorry, but that’s simply not how it works."
Follow me on Twitter: @alexvanroekel
But Roethlisberger also rates high and he’s on a run first team.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
Eh, really?
Seems to me there’s a pretty strong sentiment that he’s nothing special, seemingly centered around the idea that calling him “Matty Ice” is arrogant or giving him too much credit. I’m not sure if he belons in that top tier, but he’s still a very solid QB. I think he’s simultaneously getting too much love and too much hate, depending on who you ask. He’s very good, I’d say top 10 but not top 5.
QB's I'd take before Ryan (in no order)
Manning, Vick, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Romo, Freeman…he is right there with Schaub, Flacco, and Garrard IMO so I’d say top 15, borderline top 10
"Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there.
Sorry, but that’s simply not how it works."
Follow me on Twitter: @alexvanroekel
I’d say your top seven are pretty clearly above Ryan. I could throw him right in amongst the rest though.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
You would out Romo in with that group?
I can agree with Freeman being there but I think you are selling Romo short.
"Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there.
Sorry, but that’s simply not how it works."
Follow me on Twitter: @alexvanroekel
I dunno, coming off a season where he didn’t really play much… Hard to say. I’m not really ready to say Romo is definitely better than Matt Schaub or Matt Ryan.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
He may not be elite
But on the offense he plays on, he does pretty much exactly what’s asked of him – help move the offense, don’t take many risks, be efficient.
He’s very good at being good, if that makes sense. But he simply cannot be relied on to be a playmaking game-changer week after week.
Hmm Im excited for this
The old rating is just a bit too skewed on its merits.
Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination.-Oscar Wilde
"I would go to battle any time with these guys"-MV7
One of Kolb's ints was a perfectly thrown classic game-winning TD pass...
that was tossed away by Avant into the hands of a defender. I wondered what effect that absurd play would have on Kolb’s trade value… thankfully we still got good value. But just think… For outsiders, Kolb had just a small sample of games and stats to judge him by. That one play give him one extra int, one less TD pass, one less win, one extra loss, one less completion… crazy.
So I like the fact that they’re trying to develop a better rating system based on context. The current QB rating is so heavily weighted by ints and I don’t think it’s fair that ints coming off a batted ball or a drop count the same as a bad throw/decision.
OT But:
Per McLane:
“Asante Samuel said he feels 50-50 about being wanted by the #Eagles.”
On topic:
I think this new system is going to be pretty cool. Kind of marks a step up in how we use specific stats for these overall rankings. It’s pretty much a step into the future.
"It's not going to make me try to hit you any harder, because I'm going to do that anyway." - Brian Dawkins
A little OT
but am I the only one that thinks the picture of Vick needs a caption?
Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination.-Oscar Wilde
"I would go to battle any time with these guys"-MV7
No
You are not.
"Don't 'O' me. This is a serious issue here."
-d-jackfan10
"The only game I play is football, and to me it's not a game."
-Jeremy Maclin
by McNabb2Maclin4Philly on Aug 1, 2011 4:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
.
Jason Peters: Heart of a Lion, Face of a Chipmunk.
Eli Manning has the personality of a baked potato.
by DickMuffin on Aug 1, 2011 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Haha
I wish I was better on the photoshop. Good work again on this!
Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination.-Oscar Wilde
"I would go to battle any time with these guys"-MV7
Love it. U make it?
Rec
"If Revis has an Island, Asomugha should have a continent." - #5
"Or if the rest of the defense if even decent then
our two Rookie safety’s don’t have to go all Ed Reed-Palamolu-Dawkins-super sayan badass mode to help us win." - W_E
Sending pics of your junk > dog killing > generally being a douche > sexual assault allegations > being on the Cowboys.
This seems credible to me only because Roethlesburger fell from the top five to like a lot lower.
he is the most overrated QB in the league.
"Whatever happened in the past, hopefully it's over."
-Donovan Mcnabb
"Now you look at it and you say, 'These guys seem to have their timing together. Why is that?' Because we spend time together."
-Donovan Mcnabb
matt ryan is
all these analysts calling him matty ice. Hasn’t done shit
by CornOnTheKolb on Aug 1, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Matt Ryan is not elite
He won half his games last year based on luck and played against a horrible schedule.
He beat some of the best defenses in the league over the last 2 years (Ravens/Jets)
with one good receiver and one good TE
Let’s see what he does with the extra weapons.
He got the name “Matty Ice” because of his 4th Quarter comebacks in his rookie season and from his history in college as a 4th quarter comeback type player. I do agree that his post-season performances have been sorry at best.
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
You mean the Washington game two years ago where he threw for 135 yds, 1 TD, 1 int, and took 3 sacks, and where Michael Turner ran for 166 yds along with 2 TD’s?
And the NYJ game where he only threw for 152 yds and 1 TD with a 47 completion percentage?
Jason Peters: Heart of a Lion, Face of a Chipmunk.
Eli Manning has the personality of a baked potato.
No -
the clutch sideline pass with 7 seconds left on the clock, hitting Michael Jenkins perfectly over the shoulder on a bench route setting up the game winning field goal with 1 second on the clock
the two wins this year in the fourth quarter against Baltimore and Green Bay, arguably two of the best defenses in the NFL.
Those kinda things gave him the name “Matty Ice” – I don’t necessarily agree with the name, I just see where it comes from and it also makes sense he would be considered “Top Tier” in this rating system. This rating system seems to base a lot on 4th quarter play
know what you believe in and why you believe in it
I'll be interested to see how this is applied.
Thinking about the VY discussion thread as well as Kolb, I’d like to see if this new rating can inform about relatively small sample sizes or not.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bleeding Green Nation
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Former high-school star Brian Banks does serious time on trumped-up charge, now hopes for an NFL shot
- Former ‘idiot kicker’ Mike Vanderjagt in trouble after accosting junior-high heckler
- Adrian Peterson blows teammates away in footraces; appears to be on the mend
- UPDATE: Charlie Sheen didn’t buy Lawrence Taylor’s Super Bowl ring
- Alex Smith gets blown up by Jon Beason over Cam Newton comments
