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Game film: Reviewing all of DeSean Jackson's 'drops'

A couple weeks ago, Pro Football Focus came out with a report on the "drop percentages" of NFL wide receivers, and DeSean Jackson finished dead last in the league, with a scary-high drop percentage of 19.67%, on 12 drops.  I've always been skeptical of PFF and their rating system, which ranks DeSean Jackson as the 104th best receiver in the NFL.  Obviously, any ranking system that thinks DeSean Jackson is the 104th best receiver in the league has some serious flaws.  Naturally, I pondered the accuracy of their evaluation of what exactly is a "drop."

Sheil Kapadia of philly.com had DeSean Jackson down for 7 drops last season (it's something he charted), and I've been made aware by others that Stats Inc. had him down for 6.  Charting "drops" is subjective.  It's not a black and white statistic like a catch, a fumble, TD, etc.  Because a "drop" is so subjective, I emailed PFF to ask them who is watching the film and charting the drops.  Was ONE person watching film on every receiver in the league, all 16 games for all 32 teams?  That seems like a full-time job.  Or was it the more likely scenario, that they have several people watching film?  If it's several people, the perception of what one person thinks is a drop could vary greatly from the perception of another.  In other words, the person charting DeSean's drops could be far more strict than whoever charted Jordan Shipley's , who was rated as having no drops.on 52 'catchable balls.'  They did get back to me, although they didn't answer that question.  Instead, they said they re-watched the film and decided that DeSean had 11 drops, not 12.

I thought it might be fun to decide for ourselves what were drops and what weren't, so I pulled film of all 11 of DeSean's drops from the 2010 season.  Let's just get right to it:


Drop #1 - FOX didn't give us a close-up replay of this one, but this rocket by Vick was reminiscent of one of Donny Mac's old trademark throws - The unnecessary 10 yard laser beam thrown off target.  DeSean gets a hand on it, but couldn't bring it in.  It would have been an amazing catch had he been able to make it, but clearly the fault is on Vick here.  My opinion - Not a drop.

Drop #2 - Cullen Jenkins beats Nick Cole like a rented mule and immediately gets in Vick's face.  On the replay, you can see DeSean isn't even looking as he passes through the frame while Vick is getting hit and basically throwing the ball away.  Who would call this a drop?  Like... Seriously?  That's a drop?  My opinion - OK, this one isn't even subjective.  Clearly, not a drop by any stretch of the imagination.

Drop #3 - DeSean has to make this catch.  My opinion - Drop.

Drop #4 - Ew.  My opinion - Obviously, a bad drop.

Star-divide


Drops #5 and #6 - These two I lumped together, because they're basically the same play - On both of them, DeSean isn't the primary option, and the play has broken down.  Vick dumps the ball to DeSean a yard or two past the line of scrimmage near the sideline, on what are both very catchable balls, but also sort of throw-aways.  I think these are more of a case of disinterest than bad hands.  One was on 2nd and 10, the other was on 1st and 10.  I could forgive these if they were 3rd and 10 situations and you're punting anyway.  But on 1st or 2nd down, do you want that one yard?  Sure, of course you do.  Just catch it DeSean.  My opinion - Not a huge deal here, but statistically, both should be considered drops.

Drop #7 - Oof, TD drop.  More difficult play than it looks with a lot of traffic in front of him, but an NFL receiver has to make that play.  My opinion - Drop.


Drop #8 - In the audio, you hear Moose say "You gotta make that catch."  I agree.  My opinion - Drop.

Drop #9 - This one, and the next one, are really the two most difficult ones of the group to decide on.  It appears to me that D.J. Moore (#30) gets juuuuuust enough of the ball to change its trajectory, leading to an incompletion.  This is kind of like in baseball, when the catcher can't hang onto a foul tip on a would-be strike 3.  You want him to catch it, but you don't give him an error if he doesn't.  I think calling this one a drop is too harsh.  My opinion - Not a drop.

Drop #10 - I don't like the replay here by FOX.  I would have liked to have seen Jackson run his full route, but based upon what we're presented with here, I'm thinking that's a ball DeSean should reasonably catch.  My opinion - Drop.

Drop #11 - Black and white.  My opinion - Drop.

TOTALS - Clearly, on any that were questionable, PFF called them drops.  I count 8 drops, which would bring his DeSean's drop percentage down from 19.67 to 14.04%, which is still not good.  How many do you see?

Comment 36 comments  |  6 recs  | 

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GoIng to have to agree with you Jimmy

The only one I find debatable from your angle is the Lions’ drop. Is it a drop, or was it good defense? I guess I’ll go with you, as that is a ball your #1 should make. Still good coverage on DJax.

by Jason-E on Jun 4, 2011 9:55 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Excellent work, Jimmy

That’s atrocious though if PFF included those first two missed catches as “drops.” They were so far from drops. The first was thrown behind him and he was only able to get one hand on the ball. The other isn’t even a debate. Like you said, he didn’t even see the ball and wasn’t even able to get a fingertip on the ball.

The rest of them I agree with you on. Eight drops in total still isn’t great, but not nearly as bad as the 12 drops that were first so highly discussed/publicized when the study was released.

by Smitty2K3 on Jun 4, 2011 10:18 AM EDT reply actions  

So...

…does this move him up to like 89th-best receiver? I admit I’m too lazy on a Saturday morning to go chase down how the same WR one source calls “The most explosive player in the NFL” is also “The worst receiver in the NFL” according to another source. He doesn’t have fantastic hands, clearly. But teams don’t defensively game-plan against the 104th-best receiver in the NFL. :)

Well, Plax will come in and save our horrific WR corps, I guess. (/sarcasm)

by dweebowitz on Jun 4, 2011 10:32 AM EDT reply actions  

The thing to keep in mind here is that PFF gives each play a grade.

So while a playaction 80 yard TD could earn Jackson a +2 grade, the play prior when he didn’t effectively block the cb on a McCoy draw earned him a -0.5.

At the end of the day, all the positives, in their eyes, outweigh the negitives. PFF prides itself on judging players on all aspects of the game. It works great for offensive linemen and safeties, but not so much on WR’s. Especially the big play guys.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 4, 2011 10:52 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Er.. the positives don’t outweight the negatives. gg mobile posting, you got me again.

Er.. the positives don’t outweight the negatives. gg mobile posting, you got me again.I’ll also point out that they’ve said several times that they can’t effective rate DeSean

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 4, 2011 10:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Great work here

But to me, it’s kind of a moot point… the drops are really only part of a larger equation. A receiver that dropped half of the passes thrown to him but made 80 yrd gains on the other half would be the best receiver in the league. So, what we really want to look at “yards per target”, as Pro Football Focus themselves admit. It automatically takes drops into account, along with stupid mistakes that the WR make that are harder for us to notice… but it’ll also give credit to players that make those receptions count. It’s not perfect, of course, since the QBs throwing the ball matter, but I’d argue that QBs matter for drops, too.

Quickly pulling up stats from some random site for “yards per target, 2010-11”, Jackson has 11.0 YPT (the second best in the league). So, can I live with the drops? Yes sir, I can.

by igglemethis on Jun 4, 2011 10:53 AM EDT reply actions  

oops, sorry… 11 YPT actually has him tied for first with Mike Wallace. Even better.

by igglemethis on Jun 4, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sometimes not all yards are equal though

An extra 5 yards on a 40 yard bomb is nice, but no where close to as vaulable as a 5 yard reception on a 3rd and 3.

That being said, no statistics are perfect and to get a better sense of a players ability you need to take all stats into account and what they did on each particular play.

by stash600 on Jun 4, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

totally agree

And that’s why Jackson’s not a top 5 receiver (is he even top 10? he’s close, but I’m not sure), despite his #1 YPT stat. And for a slot receiver who would be the main target for that 5 yard reception, a drop percentage like Jackson’s would be a huge problem. Imagine if Avant dropped that many… They are still a problem for Jackson, but with the way that he plays, he makes up for the drops.

by igglemethis on Jun 4, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

It was hard to see the first 2, but I agree with everything else you've said

Reminds me of some of your old work, now that you’re big time. Good stuff… rec’d.

"This is one of the top 10 biggest bonehead trades in the history of the NFL."
-Redskins TE Chris Cooley

by Ralf E Chubbs on Jun 4, 2011 11:04 AM EDT reply actions  

Ha, thanks, although I’m not sure I’m bigtime. I like doing video stuff (and they always get good feedback), but they just take so freaking long to do.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/ - Eagles
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by JimmyK on Jun 4, 2011 11:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

and that's exactly why we l-o-v-e you and shit

breaking it down is the best way to prove a point.

"This is one of the top 10 biggest bonehead trades in the history of the NFL."
-Redskins TE Chris Cooley

by Ralf E Chubbs on Jun 4, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great work Jimmy

I’m also skeptical sometimes of the way the grade out their players. There is no way in hell that there are 103 receivers better than him. Another thing to think is when different people are reviewing game film is how different people view what is a “catchable ball” and what isn’t.

formerly jdcvr6

"When I'm dead and buried, and my time here has passed. I want them to bury me upside down, so my critics can kiss my ass." - Bob Knight

by James_C on Jun 4, 2011 11:53 AM EDT reply actions  

PFF should focus more on catches & drops in clutch conditions.

For example out of the “11 drops” above, how many are in clutch conditions (ie 3rd down, on late 2nd/4th quarter drive, for a TD):

1) 1st & 10 – Not Clutch
2) 2nd & 9 – Not Clutch
3) 3rd & 3 – Clutch
4) 3rd & 3 – Clutch
5) 2nd & 10 – Not Clutch
6) 1st & 10 – Not Clutch
7) 3rd & 7 in the Redzone – Clutch
8) 1st & 10 – Not Clutch
9) 1st & Goal – Clutch
10) 1st & 10 – Not Clutch
11) 2nd & 10 – Not Clutch

So he “dropped” 4 balls in clutch conditions, 2 for TD’s in the redzone & 2 for 3rd down conversions. But then how many clutch plays did he make all season? I bet a stat comparing % successfully caught catchable balls in clutch conditions would be a lot higher than most players in the league!

by Brawnybalboa on Jun 4, 2011 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

This is interesting

Because you might argue that in some ways any drop is more costly for DeSean because of his ability to score on any given play. If Brent Celek drops a three yard out, that’s not good, but the chances he might score on that play aren’t as high as the chances Jackson might…

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by JasonB on Jun 4, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can see your points Jason, but I do not agree

You may argue that any drop is more costly as DeSean is such a dangerous player, it could cost a massive gain or TD. However we must look at what causes dropped catches:
Adverse Weather Conditions
Poor Quality of the incoming throw
Situational Pressure on the player at that given time
Pressure applied by defender proximity

Seeing as most games are in good weather or in domes, and that the QB has thrown a good quality pass to the WR when they are open, this leave only a single variable. The situational pressure.

Some players are known to crumble under pressure, such as Tony Homo Romo, and some are know to play big on the big stage, such as Tom Brady.

A player showing a high % of drops on 3rd down, for TD’s and late in games are obviously not reacting well to pressure, whereas a low % of drops in similar conditions would show that players are reacting well to pressure.

So regardless of how explosive a player is, and the likelihood that they will score IF they catch the pass, a stat like this would the plays that ARE in important situations.

People knock DeSean Jackson for not being a traditional #1 WR due to not being big & imposing, but if he makes the important catches when he needs to, he is definitely a #1 WR!

by Brawnybalboa on Jun 4, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

EDIT

a stat like this would highlight the plays that ARE made in important situations.

by Brawnybalboa on Jun 4, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree that all those factors are why it’s so hard to judge a football player independently on a play by play basis.

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by JasonB on Jun 4, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

you don't leave much room for the player just dropping the ball...

take Roy Williams…dude will drop anything…inside his home stadium while wide open during a players only practice. sometimes people can’t catch.

sigh...

by nywins42 on Jun 4, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting...but

If DeSean is making plays to avoid even being put in a “clutch” situation, he’d be affecting his “clutch catch %”. I feel like DeSean’s purpose is to avoid that situation half the time, since it’s known he can score at any time. I guess it also makes him the ultimate “Clutch” weapon (ask Matt Dodge). I get that dealing with pressure is a skill set, but this is the NFL, every play should feel like a high pressure situation.
        I guess I’m just saying I’m not sure I agree with the whole “clutch” player thing. People call Adam Viniateri “clutch” for championship winning late FG’s, but his missed field goals are what put him in positions to need to win superbowls for the Pats. Had he made those kicks earlier in those games, he wouldn’t be the onel kicking with the game on the line. The hail mary Avant dropped against the skins may not have been necessary if the holding call didn’t happen on Vick’s scramble that injured him. One could argue that hold is as “un-clutch” as the hail mary drop.
     

In football, every play is clutch, because every touch is a chance to score.

by IwearNumber20 on Jun 6, 2011 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I told you Jason!

by Route36 on Jun 4, 2011 12:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Oh and thanks Jimmy for this. Great job. I knew PFF counted a bunch of those non-drops as drops. This was what I wrote on that Boss article to JasonB.

Let’s say I watched a Panthers game live and I counted four solo and 1 assisted tackle by Jon Beason. I write it down in my little notepad. The box score at NFL.com after the game says 5 solo and 1 assist by Beason. I would be compelled to change it because at the end of the day, their stats are the only one that count and what people(fans, reporters, coaches, agents, players) go by.

It does matter who is recording them and they are not judged the same way. PFF interprets a LOT. A drop to the official stat keepers is probably if a ball hit you in the hands and you don’t catch it, it’s a drop. That’s the same way I look at it. To PFF, they look at "catchable balls" and what not. Let’s say a WR is running a comeback, the QB throws the ball a little early and as soon as the WR turns around, the ball hits him on his arm before he was ready to catch it. PFF might have counted that as a drop while I or Stats LLC would not. I like some of their stuff but some of their stuff is just bad. If I can’t find any official stats, then I use whatever they have.

I watched every single Eagles game and there is no possible way Jackson dropped 12 passes that him in the hands nor did Brent Celek drop only 5 passes.

Stats Inc has Desean down for 6 official drops. Aaaand rec’d ByeDa…errr…Jimmy.

by Route36 on Jun 4, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

The thing is

If PFF was equally harsh on drops for every WR, I don’t know that the overall rankings would change dramatically. If DeSean’s drop percentage is lowered, presumably so would other WRs who were judged with the same eye.

So while it’s certainly good to be able to say that the gross amount of drops is not as high as PFF might say, I still wonder where he is in relation to the rest of the league. I suspect that no matter how we measure it, he’ll be up there.

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by JasonB on Jun 4, 2011 12:36 PM EDT reply actions  

They hate some players and underrate them and love some and overrate them.

by Route36 on Jun 4, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

YES! They’re extremely biased.

Merry Vickmas everyone! * Falls into pile of snow DeSean style *
"It's simple, ... I'm always striving to do more. Whatever I accomplish, it's not enough. I don't get satisfied. That's not my nature." -Brian Dawkins
"Well as long as you want to get it right it's Princess Buttercup... Jackass." -Udalango

by d-jackfan10 on Jun 4, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

With PFF you have to take what they say and then go and research it for yourself too, see if other people are saying similar things or if they’re just over hyping a guy (as they tend to do), go back and watch some tape of the guy just to confirm it for yourself or just check up on the official stat sheets.

Merry Vickmas everyone! * Falls into pile of snow DeSean style *
"It's simple, ... I'm always striving to do more. Whatever I accomplish, it's not enough. I don't get satisfied. That's not my nature." -Brian Dawkins
"Well as long as you want to get it right it's Princess Buttercup... Jackass." -Udalango

by d-jackfan10 on Jun 4, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

So Jimmy knocked off 4 of the drops. But at 14%, DeSean only goes from 55th in the league to 49th. BFD.

This doesn’t change the broader question.

by bsencore on Jun 4, 2011 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Difference between drop and not a drop

You get 2 hands on it, it’s a drop, PERIOD.

"The positions I played, every play, I was making contact, not like that … Deion Sanders. He couldn’t tackle my wife. He’s back there dancing out there instead of hitting." -Chuck Bednarik

by MidwesternEaglesfan on Jun 4, 2011 2:29 PM EDT reply actions  

#9

I remember watching this one and just feeling sick to my stomach. #30, whether he touched it or not, did NOT affect the trajectory enough for that to be dropped. You can clearly see DeSean feels #27 coming and starts to duck it before the ball hits his hands.

He shouldn’t be out there if that Dunta hit versus the Falcons is still affecting him.

"If they bring in a cardboard cutout of Nicholas Cage to replace McD, I’d be fine with it as long as it can get this D to execute." - McNabb2Maclin4Philly

by begforme4484 on Jun 4, 2011 4:47 PM EDT reply actions  

I was raised ‘if the ball hits your hands you should catch it’ so I’d probably be the worst person to judge drops.

They call me The Professor.

by Whodie126 on Jun 4, 2011 4:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Great Stuff Jimmy

Im counting 9 because if Desean wants to be an elite WR he needs to catch the ball against Chicago. Also, How do u put these clips together do u have the tape at home.

AKA Detective Electric
"You got Lasik: NY Giants edition."-Udalango

by Mr.electric10 on Jun 4, 2011 5:26 PM EDT reply actions  

It's too bad that PFF doesn't own a team

They would be fun to play against.

AR should have to wear a Flava Flav necklace until he learns how to manage a fucking clock.
I am the proud target of temper tantrums.

by KByars on Jun 4, 2011 5:42 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Remember that time in 08’, when he dropped 2 TD passes vs Washington? That game that everyone thought took us out of the post season?

Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?

She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...

by rajav on Jun 4, 2011 7:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Was that at band camp?

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/ - Eagles
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by JimmyK on Jun 4, 2011 8:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

No at band camp, DeSean did other things to me.

Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?

She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...

by rajav on Jun 4, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Does he get a negative grade for talking walking to slowly to the huddle or improper etiquette when drinking his gatorade?

Or Is he down in 104th place because he has more drops than a receiver who got thrown to 20 times last season?

Or maybe hes the 104th best receiver of receivers of the past 10 years?

I don’t know I just wanted to post something for the first time in 2 months…

Yeah ! Real n*****. ALL day ! Just me. By myself. On the block. Holdin’ it down. Gun in my waist. Straight face. All day. Not a game. In jail. By myself. 1 bed. No pillow case. 1 pillow. Didn’t nobody write me. It was early. Woke up. Went back to sleep. Took a nap. You ever go night night ? SAY IT WITH YOUR CHEST LIL ASS N****- Kevin Hart

by Snax on Jun 4, 2011 9:01 PM EDT reply actions  

It is ironic

that the “up next” video after the first series of plays is “DeSean Jackson – Drop the World.”

by ATG. on Jun 4, 2011 9:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Jimmy, I'd have to agree with you 100%.

Defensive player of the year for 2011 is...

Wild_Eagle!

Yes, Wild_Eagle's infamous reputation did help him get this award. But he shows that he walks the talk that he serves...with his keyboard. Wild_Eagle protects the motherland (BGN) from the evils of noobs, douche-bags, and other assholes. Although he may be crude and unnecessary, all great defenders draws the yellow flag from time to time.

-Awarded by Number5

by wild_eagle on Jun 5, 2011 12:48 AM EDT reply actions  

If a WR is covered well, not sure it can be a drop

The Lions play DJack is covered like a blanket. The endzone play against the Giants, I would say he’s covered. Also, DJack gets thrown a lot more deep passes than probably anyone in the league and it’s much harder to catch a longer pass than a shorter one. You have to concentrate longer. You have to have better timing. Plus, you are more tired because you have taken many more steps. For a possession WR, catching short patterns where you are often sitting in a zone and not trying to run and catch at the same time is a lot easier.

by phillynyc on Jun 5, 2011 9:09 PM EDT reply actions  

i think you were wearing green glasses on some of that analysis jimdawk

there were about 2 of them that were clear drops, and all of the excuses in the world can’t change that. nevertheless, still alot of drops for a premier receiver in this league, although def. not enough to make him 104th in anything. PFF is so strangely interesting – alot of insightful information there, but some questionable ratings. it seems as if their rating system is run by the new world order – a bunch of faceless figures with inconceivable numbers doled out. oh well. good job dawkie.

Yes, I am a Giants fan. Now that we got that out of the way....
IMPEACH DOLAN!!!!
I will not - lose! -Jay Z-

by wilddre22 on Jun 5, 2011 11:01 PM EDT reply actions  

there were about 2 of them that were clear drops

Which ones?

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by JimmyK on Jun 6, 2011 7:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

drop one and nine

one was right over the middle with no one around him. the ninth one didn’t look like the trajectory was changed, or if so, so minute that it shouldn’t have affected him in that manner. moreso what it looked like to me is he was shrinking and thinking about that safety arriving promptly to pop him hard.

Yes, I am a Giants fan. Now that we got that out of the way....
IMPEACH DOLAN!!!!
I will not - lose! -Jay Z-

by wilddre22 on Jun 6, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

9 is close. I’ll grant you that could go either way. But on 1, it all depends on what your definition of a drop is. To me, it’s “Should the receiver have been reasonably expected to make the catch?” To others, it’s “Did it hit his hands?” So for me, 1 is not a drop. To others, it may very well be. That’s part of the point of the post – that drops are extremely subjective.

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http://bloggingthebeast.com/ - NFC East

by JimmyK on Jun 7, 2011 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

fair enough

the fact that there was no replay for the first makes it hard for me to argue you down…so we’ll split the difference here.

Yes, I am a Giants fan. Now that we got that out of the way....
IMPEACH DOLAN!!!!
I will not - lose! -Jay Z-

by wilddre22 on Jun 7, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

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