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PFF: DeSean Jackson Led The NFL In Drop Percentage

PHILADELPHIA PA - JANUARY 09:  DeSean Jackson #10 of the Philadelphia Eagles takes the field before playing against the Green Bay Packers in the 2011 NFC wild card playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field on January 9 2011 in Philadelphia Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

Pro Football Focus has been continuing their off-season research and did an article today about wide receiver drop percentage. They tallied up the number of drops, divided it by the number of catchable balls thrown his way and ta da...

The news for the Eagles is mixed. By their calculation, DeSean Jackson dropped 19.67% of the catchable passes thrown his way, which is the worst percentage in the NFL. I think we all knew that Jackson dropped a lot of catchable balls last year, but almost 20% of them? That's a shockingly high percentage.

They counted 12 drops last year from 61 catchable balls. That could also help explain that while his yardage was only down slightly last year, he caught 16 fewer passes. He did appear in one less game, but clearly his numbers could have been dramatically improved had his hands been a little better.

In fact, let's make a crude calculation about what Jackson's drop could have cost the Eagles last season. He averaged a ridiculous 22.5 yards per catch last season.  So if we applied that average to his drops last year, that was potentially 270 yards left on the field. He also caught about one TD per 12 catches. So, if he improves his hands, you can only imagine the kind of rise in production we could see from him.

All that said, it should be noted that Jackson is hardly the only pro bowl caliber WR who has a problem with drops. The rest of the bottom five as far as drop percentage over the past three years include Braylon Edwards, Dwayne Bowe, Terrell Owens & Randy Moss. All pro bowlers.

The good news for the Eagles is that Jason Avant has the 6th lowest drop percentage in the NFL over the past three seasons.

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Surprising

I have never considered Desean as a “dropper.” Ironically, the receiver who I remember for dropping clutch passes is Avant…. but they were some important drops. Strange how that works.

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on May 23, 2011 3:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Easier to forget the drops when you make a 91yd play the next drive.

"If they bring in a cardboard cutout of Nicholas Cage to replace McD, I’d be fine with it as long as it can get this D to execute." - McNabb2Maclin4Philly

by begforme4484 on May 23, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

We as fans

know Avant has great hands and everyone talks up his hands so its much more memorable when he does drop passes

by CSJones on May 23, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

all good points. And because one of the drops was a hail mary to win the game and the other one was also in the end zone of a big game.

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on May 23, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

I think the situations of his drops is what sticks with us

by CSJones on May 23, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

dropped the miracle also

The latest version of the miracle at the meadowlands started with a dropped punt. I will take the results of that one however.

by ATLeagle on May 23, 2011 3:09 PM EDT reply actions  

It is interesting to read in a little more depth
The catches tend to be a bit harder the further downfield you go. While he may be as scary a deep threat as there is in the league, a one-dimensional player like DeSean Jackson never really scores that highly in our grading. You can attribute some of that to his league-leading 19.67% of drops on catchable balls – this Eagle is your vintage boom or bust receiver.

Seeing as DeSean Jackson spends most of his time downfield, this would explain his high drop %

by Brawnybalboa on May 23, 2011 3:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Good point

I also am unsure how to interpret this stat, since all the guys with high drop percentages are guys who get a lot of balls thrown their way, which means they’re better at getting open than their counterparts.

Hmm.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 23, 2011 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Compare Apples to Apples

I think they could have done a better job analyzing the data. They should have split passes up into categories, i.e. ball-in-the-air 0-10 yds, 10-20 yds, 20+ yds, and then run the numbers. This analysis would be more difficult, but not all passes are equal and they should not be treated as equal. “Looking Deeper” should mean more than adding two years of data to your analysis.

Of course, it is easy to be brave with another person’s body, it is easy to be smart with another person’s brain.

The views expressed by this comment belong to they who wrote them, heretofore referred to as "comment maker."
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by ChaosOnion on May 24, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

“"Looking Deeper" should mean more than adding two years of data to your analysis.”

But to be fair, that’s as long as he’s been in the league

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by JasonB on May 24, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Another thing to look at is who is passing the ball

He spent the first 2 years of his career catching balls from Donovan McNabb, whom for every 3 or 4 good passes completed, 1 would be a wild one that was hard for a WR to catch. Balls were not hitting DeSean Jackson “inbetween the numbers”, hence are harder to catch. This hasn’t been true for Vick though.

It is possible that the dropped catches could be due to the pass velocity. Both McNabb & Vick are known for rocket arms. When a QB really slings the ball on an intermediate root it can be difficult to catch, especially on the run

by Brawnybalboa on May 24, 2011 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wonder...

How many of those drops were after that PUNK Dunta knocked him out? I say that drop didn’t count, so he had 15 in my book.

"Laying in an empty pool,with a pistol" -Warcloud.

by Dunta Is A PUNK on May 23, 2011 3:12 PM EDT reply actions  

You beat me to it, I didn’t see your comment and yeah.. I was wondering the same thing.

by cin7 on May 23, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

*****11 in my book*****

"Laying in an empty pool,with a pistol" -Warcloud.

by Dunta Is A PUNK on May 23, 2011 3:13 PM EDT reply actions  

But Avant has 1 drop we won't forget

I can’t actually remember any of the specific drops DeSean had.. I know he dropped a lot though.

by cin7 on May 23, 2011 3:27 PM EDT reply actions  

There’s 2 that I will never forget.

"Get 'Em"

by FlyEagles15 on May 23, 2011 6:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

there’s some pretty good receivers on that highest drop % list

by byosti on May 23, 2011 3:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah makes you wonder

how catchable the catchable balls are, and if there should still be some sort of merit for those guys getting open more for the QB to even look their way and throw it.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 23, 2011 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

only way .......

Avant is droppin a ball is if it hits him dead in the hands with nobody within 10 yds of him…………but throw a MIKE in his grill and FS creepin up his back and he’ll bring it in every time lololol

by goldenbird09 on May 23, 2011 3:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Only catches

when its impressive to do so haha

by CSJones on May 23, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup. Its what I been saying about DeSean.

Not a top 10. Not a top 15.

Just a 789 with superior speed and elusiveness.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on May 23, 2011 3:35 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

IMO he’s a top 10 threat, but not a top 10 WR

by T-rade on May 23, 2011 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Are there 15 guys you'd rather have than DeSean?

I suppose we could nitpick about true wide receiver skills, but in the Eagles’ offense, I can’t think of many guys I’d rather have. There’s the transcendent guys like Andre, L-Fitz and Calvin, but I mean … what does it matter who’s top 10?

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 23, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

yup

1st, before the list, i’ll address the fact that Reid would absolutely abuse defenses with a large physical receiver. so i will not shy away from listing them. Maclin is a deep threat, so replacing Jackson with just about anything fitz (lol u see what i did there?).

so, feel free to nitpick. i’ll keep this under 30, too.

Andre
Fitz
marshall
roddy white
quan
megatron
sidney rice
jennings (fast, but catches everything. good routes)
vjackson
marques
miles austin (speed, great size, AND can catch)
bummy steve smith
braylon fixed his drop issues last year
bowe beasted last year
crabtree
bryant
and britt

.. oh and i didmt mention sims-walker or nicks.

any one of those 17 guys would be 1) more durable 2) more reliable 3) more worthy of a contract.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on May 23, 2011 11:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

lol and people’ll nickpick on me for the small injuries. but i’ll maintain my list. any of these guys still have a brighter future than jackson10. he’s 1 ACL away from being the slowest 789 in the league.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on May 23, 2011 11:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

i’m pickign apart my own list.. crabtree hasnt done anything (no qb) and wasnt both nicks and bummy steve smith hurt?

anyway. i’m sitting on 15 and the dealer is showing 16 and taking a hit. i’m confident.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on May 23, 2011 11:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Right on.

I’d replace a healthy Jackson with most of these receivers.

"If they bring in a cardboard cutout of Nicholas Cage to replace McD, I’d be fine with it as long as it can get this D to execute." - McNabb2Maclin4Philly

by begforme4484 on May 24, 2011 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

people love 2 hate on desean....

but he does bring it on himself by being a feast or famine type player, me personally i wouldnt trade him for anyone besides the obvious WR’s Fitz,Andre, etc. One guy however who is on the verge i beleive of becoming a elite WR is Jennings and i would swap Jackson for him. I pretty much agree with everything your saying except for the whole give Jones 2 years and he’ll be better then Roddy thing. I think Julio may be a big let down.

by goldenbird09 on May 24, 2011 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

also....

u gotta realize Roddy being their main threat also worked to his detriment because the defenses were mainly focused on him, i dont think hes a flash in the pan i just think it took him a little while to develop, hes definitely on the cusp of being a top 5 WR if he isnt already, that being said i still take 10 over him.

by goldenbird09 on May 24, 2011 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I kinda just phased you out after the first two, I’ll be honest.

You sound like a fanboy.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on May 24, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

There u go!!

Way to stick up for my boy!! DeSean is the man. He gets dissed for his size,but once he beats the scrub trying to cover him, he is GONE!!

"Laying in an empty pool,with a pistol" -Warcloud.

by Dunta Is A PUNK on May 24, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for handling it, djackfan10

That was recockulous.

Personally, I’d give him:
Andre
Fitz
roddy white
megatron
jennings
miles austin

I’m no math whiz, but that’s not even close to 10, let alone 15.

DeSean is who he is, which means size issues and games where he doesn’t go crazy, but there aren’t guys who are talented/consistent/productive/young enough for me to want to ever want to swap that have-to-account-for-him-at-all-timesness that Jackson brings.

And as long as he’s with Vick and Maclin and McCoy and the gang, I like him even more.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 24, 2011 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Should have stopped reading after Sidney Rice. Definitely stopped reading after Braylon. And has nobody entertained the possibility that Michael Crabtree… maybe just isn’t that good?

"There is no dark side in the moon, really. Matter of fact it's all dark."

by alcatraz0109 on May 24, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

These are all possibilities, but their ceilings are still above them while I truly believe that 10 will bottom out because of how limited he is. He loses just a fraction of that elite speed, and then he’s just a punt returner.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on May 24, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

(or, in some cases, like Quan, they’ve hit their ceilings and are much more reliable receivers, especially in the red zone)

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on May 24, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Truth is, I think you’re being a little disingenuous by saying he’s

Just a 789 with superior speed and elusiveness.
That’s like me saying “Greg Jennings wouldn’t be anything special without his speed” or “Vincent Jackson wouldn’t be so good if he weren’t 6’5” – those physical characteristics are part of their skill sets, like how DeSean’s speed and elusiveness are a large part of what makes him so good. So discounting that is rather pointless; any football player lacking their best skill wouldn’t be much of a football player, right?

He may be a boom-or-bust wideout, but that doesn’t make him nothing.

"There is no dark side in the moon, really. Matter of fact it's all dark."

by alcatraz0109 on May 24, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

By 789

do we mean those are the routes on the route tree he’s capable of running?

Been around football all my life and I can’t remember hearing that used to describe someone. But it would make sense as “strictly a deep threat” … though DeSean runs square-ins and comebacks along the sideline so it wouldn’t really be accurate.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 24, 2011 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn’t even think of the route tree, but it’s likely what he’s referring to. And I still think that’s disingenuous because, like you said, he runs other routes as well. Case in point: the Dallas TD last year. Granted, he got open field because Jenkins airmailed the tackle, but how many WRs, or even NFL players, could turn that into a TD?

"There is no dark side in the moon, really. Matter of fact it's all dark."

by alcatraz0109 on May 25, 2011 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Desean

I like the guy and he is a threat everytime he gets his hands on the ball. I’m not in Philly but when I do get to see a game it makes me nervous whenever the ball is in the air his way. If he could only catch the ball think about how much more of a threat he could be.

He is a bit cocky and well deserved a lot of the time, but come on he is a wide RECEIVER and drops way to many passes.

by slandog on May 23, 2011 3:53 PM EDT reply actions  

numbers guys

try to qualtify the extent DJax contributes to the offense. At the risk of being a little condescending, they are full of shit if they believe the conclusions of these numbers.

While it is true that drop % is a consideration for all WRs, Jackson is so far beyond the regular scale for other qualities that it tends to discount his contribution. In other words, there are drops and there are drops. Players like Avant need to have a high catch rate in order to contribute. DJax could drop 30% of his passes and still contibute more than the Avants of the world.

The stats guy always overrate the safe and steady 10 yard players, and always underrate the boom and bust guys who can score on any play. I’m not certain why they don’t consider tweaking their formulas. Maybe it has something to do with the very exceptional quality of him as a player, I don’t know. But whenever the stats fly in the face of common sense, I tend to suspect the stats are asking the wrong questions.

"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant

by NJBammer on May 23, 2011 4:51 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Its the same reason Wes Welker is considered a pro bowl player. I never understood it either.

by Anders Jensen on May 23, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good post

Rec.

The statistics can be legitmate, and we can ignore or discount the conclusions.

Clearly here since drop rate doesn’t = ineffectiveness, I don’t much know what to make of these numbers.

Sure wish there were some free agents we could sign and then talk about.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 23, 2011 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

But the purpose of this stat is to measure drops.

I agree this stat does not measure DJax’s worth to the team, but no single stat, in any sport, does that. It is up to the consumer to balance that with his insane YPC and DVOA and yards, TDs, 3rd down conversions, etc.

PFF calculates tons of stats, and I think they would be the first to tell you that this is not a measure of the quality of a receiver, just a piece.

by ATG. on May 23, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

but I’ve found that these kinds of stats tend to underrate DJ as a player. DVOA and such do not show him as an elite WR, but I contend he is. I think it’s extremely difficult to combine all stats into a single measure of a player’s worth in football, there are just too many variables and things not known by any measurement. We ignore common sense to our peril.

"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant

by NJBammer on May 24, 2011 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think it’s extremely difficult to combine all stats into a single measure…

I agree, emphatically. I am sure PFF would, as well.

I guess I don’t understand where you are inferring that drop rate is supposed to be a single measure of the WR’s worth. You say they are full of shit and suggest ways to tweak the formula – there is no formula. PFF just presented a raw number of drops and drops / targets for a percentage. There is nothing to tweak. This is not like QB rating, it is like TDs.

by ATG. on May 24, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

This stat doesn’t present a full picture of him as a player, nor does it claim to. It simply looks at his drops, which no matter how you slice it, are too many.

That doesn’t mean he doesn’t do a lot of great things, but this is an area he can absolutely improve.

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by JasonB on May 24, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

DJax and Maclyn both suck.

by Clyde Simmons on May 23, 2011 4:54 PM EDT reply actions  

WTF?

What kind of fan are you?

"Laying in an empty pool,with a pistol" -Warcloud.

by Dunta Is A PUNK on May 23, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

You missed the joke.

Maclyn

RIP Jim Johnson, best ever.
Cam Newton: future QB bust

by Imp on May 23, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh Snap! LOL...Thx

"Laying in an empty pool,with a pistol" -Warcloud.

by Dunta Is A PUNK on May 23, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m just going to say that Stats LLC (official stats of the NFL) says that DeSean dropped 6 passes, not 12.

Merry Vickmas everyone! * Falls into pile of snow DeSean style *
"It's simple, ... I'm always striving to do more. Whatever I accomplish, it's not enough. I don't get satisfied. That's not my nature." -Brian Dawkins
"Well as long as you want to get it right it's Princess Buttercup... Jackass." -Udalango

by d-jackfan10 on May 23, 2011 5:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Maybe STATS INC is more forgiving? I dunno, it’s a subjective stat either way.

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by JasonB on May 24, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

PFF tried to act like they’re objective and only use the facts but they’re very biased. They’re football ‘hipsters’ if you will, they’re always looking to put down some star and pump up some nobody. They grade players and publish articles that reinforce their bias. PFF can be very ridiculous.

Merry Vickmas everyone! * Falls into pile of snow DeSean style *
"It's simple, ... I'm always striving to do more. Whatever I accomplish, it's not enough. I don't get satisfied. That's not my nature." -Brian Dawkins
"Well as long as you want to get it right it's Princess Buttercup... Jackass." -Udalango

by d-jackfan10 on May 24, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who cares?

I dont remember seeing many passes hitting him in the numbers and falling to the ground. They were probably hard catches to make to begin with. Plus when you dont get thrown to as much your percentage is going to be high.

You only think were front runners because our team is winning.

by andyb on May 23, 2011 6:15 PM EDT reply actions  

I would guess so ...

… but it’s subjective for the other guys on the list.

And you have to be able to get open for a QB to even throw you a ball to drop, so there’s some skill being overlooked there.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 23, 2011 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

It is

but it’s the same guys rating all of them so at least they keep the same level of subjectivity for all of them.

Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class, and be humble.
-John Madden

by Willgfass on May 23, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was my thought. It is subjective, but if everyone is rated on the same scale, it shouldn’t matter.

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by JasonB on May 24, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, no, no, no ,no ,wrong ,nope!!!!!!!!!!!!

No way he dropped that many passes. I dont have proof. But no way he dropped that many passes. Its a bullshit and wrong.

by greenage on May 23, 2011 9:33 PM EDT reply actions  

He dropped 6 passes. Link.

Merry Vickmas everyone! * Falls into pile of snow DeSean style *
"It's simple, ... I'm always striving to do more. Whatever I accomplish, it's not enough. I don't get satisfied. That's not my nature." -Brian Dawkins
"Well as long as you want to get it right it's Princess Buttercup... Jackass." -Udalango

by d-jackfan10 on May 24, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Damn, Welker had 13 drops. Did not expect that one.

RIP Jim Johnson, best ever.
Cam Newton: future QB bust

by Imp on May 24, 2011 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

You know what one I did expect

Seeing Celek up top on there. Dude did have a lot of drops last year

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 24, 2011 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

wtf....

surprised 2 see Tony on that list.

by goldenbird09 on May 24, 2011 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

A lot of those dropped passes were in the redone, drag-routes and comebacks. Especially after that Robinson hit.

'Study long. ... Study wrong. ..' Chad Butler

by Illadelphia-Braintrust on May 24, 2011 12:50 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I hope DeSean reads this

…and using this as motivation and is in the gym training like an animal. I’d like to see him in NJ with the other guys, but I guess I don’t care as long as he’s beasting it in the gym and on the track.

There is something about his deminer that has me skeptical whether he’s working as hard as he could. Is he outworking other top 10 receivers that he’s trying to get paid like? I know he’s not out working Terrell Owens. Is he outworking Maclin or Avant even? It might be a real eye opener and measuring stick to be in Marlton right now, working.

Then again, who’s to say he’s not.

by Wokjab on May 24, 2011 9:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Jerry Rice trained D-Jax before the draft and vouches for him

Pretty sure that means he’s not afraid to put the work in.

Also sounds like DJax’s Dad raised him to be a fanatical workaholic. So just because dudes are easy-going outside work doesn’t mean they aren’t about business when it’s that time.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 24, 2011 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

(resists urge to mention McNabb air guitar debate)

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 24, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

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