FanPost

Trader Andy: A Study of Reid's Success in Draft Pick Trades

[Note by JasonB, 04/06/11 5:00 PM EDT ] Promoted from fanshots. Awesome work from no1pipelayer here

I'll admit that, when it comes to drafting, I'm more of a Quality over Quantity guy.  I prefer when the Eagles target a player of supposed high value and trade up to get him or pick one of the more highly rated prospects at their original pick.  On the other side of the coin it drives me nuts when the Eagles trade down in the draft to pick up extra  5th or 6th round picks.  So I decided to dissect the draft pick trades to find out how successful trading up or down has been for the Eagles during the Andy Reid era.

After the Jump let the dissecting and conclusions begin.

Since this is not an assessment of Reids drafting in general, or for that matter his trading in general, I'm going to eliminate all picks made at the Eagles original draft positions and all trades of picks for existing NFL players except where the picks traded were the "spoils" of a pick exchange.  I will consider all trades of picks in a draft for picks in future drafts as trade downs, even if the picks obtained in the trades are in a future higher round.

The 1999 Draft

Trade Ups: None

Trade Downs: Traded their 5th to Detroit for their 4th in 2000.

This pick was traded again in 2000 and became a 3rd in 2001 where the Eagles selected Derrick Burgess.  Although Burgess didn't contribute a ton to the Eagles in his 4 years on the team, when you consider that he was obtained for essentially a 5th, you would have to call this a successful trade down.

 

The 2000 Draft

Trade Ups:  Traded their 3rd and 5th to Tennessee for their 2nd.

With this 2nd the Eagles selected Bobbie Williams.  Even though Williams went on to have a fair career in the NFL, he contributed next to nothing to the Eagles.  I would mark this trade as unsuccessful.

Trade Downs:  Traded a 4th to San Diego for a 3rd in 2001

(See The 1999 Draft)

 

The 2001 Draft

Trade Ups:  None

Trade Downs:  Traded a 3rd and a 5th to Miami for a 2nd in 2002

With that pick the Eagles selected Sheldon Brown.  Nothing needs to be said about this one, unqualified success.

 

The 2002 Draft

Trade Ups:  None

Trade Downs:  None

Boy that was easy.

 

The 2003 Draft

Trade Ups:  Traded a 1st and 2nd to San Diego for their 1st

With that pick the Eagles selected Jerome McDougle.

Ouch this one hurts.  no one in their right mind would call this trade successful.

Trade Downs:  Traded a 5th and a 7th to Green Bay for a 6th, a 7th, and a 2004 6th

The "spoils" of this trade became Jeremy Bridges, Norm LeJeune and Andy Hall.  Now we don't know who the Eagles would have selected in the 5th and 7th but we do know what we got out of Bridges, LeJeune, and Hall absolutely nothing.  I'm calling this trade unsuccessful.

 

The 2004 Draft

Trade Ups:  Traded a 1st and a 2nd to Atlanta for a their 1st.

With this pick the Eagles selected Shawn Andrews.  Say what you want about Andrews, he was a Beast when healthy and no one could blame Reid for this pick.  I'm calling this trade a success.

Trade Downs:  None

 

The 2005 Draft

Okay, following the trades starts to get really complicated and convoluted at this point.  I'm going to try to work each trade down and follow them to the eventual Eagles players drafted so bear with me.

Trade Ups:  Traded a 5th, 6th, and 7th to Green Bay for a 4th.

With this pick the Eagles selected Todd Herremans.  This is draft trading at it's best; target a guy, trade up to get him, and he becomes an important part of your team for years.  Success!

Trade Downs:

1) Traded a 3rd to San Francisco for a 4th and a 6th.

With these picks the Eagles selected Sean Considine and Calvin Armstrong.  I know, considine wasn't a complete bust and is still knocking around the league but I'm calling this an unsuccessful trade down because I'd like to think you can get a serviceable starter in the 3rd.  (Even though this is not often the case for the Eagles)

2) Traded a 4th and a 2006 6th to Dallas for a 5th and a 4th in 2006.

These picks get traded around quite a bit and eventually become Jason Avaint and a pick that was eventually used to move up in 2006 to obtain Winston Justice.   Avaint has become a big contributor to the team and getting what we needed to move up for Justice isn't bad either.  Success.

 

The 2006 Draft

Trade Ups: 

1) Traded a 2nd and a 4th to Tennessee for their 2nd.

Although Justice has not become the type of dominating tackle that many thought he could, he is a serviceable player and the cost of the trade was softened by a 2005 trade down.  I'll call this a success.

2) Traded a 3rd and a 7th to the Jets for their 3rd.

With this pick the Eagles selected Chris Gocong.  What were the Eagles thinking trading up for a player that no guide or guru had going before the 4th?  Considering what the Eagles got for Gocong later, from the Browns, I'll call this an unsuccessful trade.

Trade Downs:  None

 

The 2007 Draft

Trade Ups: None

Trade Downs:  Traded a 1st to Dallas for a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th.

The player selected with these picks were Kevin Kolb, Stewart Bradley, and C.J. Gaddis.  I'll call this a success but only based on the hoped for value of Kolb in a future trade.  And lets face it, this isn't an IRA, 5-6 years is a long time to wait to reap the rewards of a 1st round investment no mater what we end up getting for Kolb.

 

The 2008 Draft

Trade Ups:  None

Trade Downs:

1) Traded a 1st to Carolina for a 2nd, 4th, and a 1st in 2009

After moving around a little bit the spoils of this trade ended up being Trevor Laws, Quinton Demps, and Mike McGlynn.  The 2009 1st that was obtained became the pivotal part of the 2009 Jason Peters trade.  To think we traded Jeff Otah, the guy I wanted at the time, and got Peters, McGlynn, and Laws, I can't complain.  Success.

2) Traded a 6th to Cleveland for a 2009 5th.

This pick ended up being the lower of the two 5ths we sent to New England for Ellis Hobbs.  I don't know what to call this.  Side Note:  The pick was eventually used by the Broncos to draft Kenny McKinley, who committed suicide last year.

 

The 2009 Draft

Trade Ups:  Traded a 1st and a 6th to Cleveland for their 1st.

The player selected with this pick was Jeremy Maclin.  Success but keep in mind that Cleveland ended up with a Pro Bowl center out of the deal.  To be honest I don't know if Alex Mack or Maclin helps this team more last year.

Trade Downs:  Trade a 3rd to the Giants for a 3rd and a 5th.

Wow I had to do a convoluted flow chart on this one to come up with the final results on this seemingly straightforward trade.  What we ended up getting out of this trade was Paul Fanaika and Jorrick Calvin.  A 5th that eventually came from this trade was the other part of the Hobbs trade.  A 3rd that eventually came from this trade was part of the package we used to move up and select Brandon Graham.  An other 5th that eventually came from this trade was packaged with Brandon Gibson to get Will Witherspoon.  (OK I've got a headache now).  When it's all said and done what we ended up with in this deal was a part of what it cost us to move up and select Graham.  For this trade to be considered a success  Graham  will have to really come on in the future.  Undecided

 

The 2010 Draft

To Early to draw any conclusions.

 

Soooo,  what did I learn from a few hours of research and what conclusions can I come to?  Well I've found that besides the last two years Reid and the Eagles have not traded down as often as it seemed to me.  The Eagles have a lot more success trading up than they do trading down.  But what seems the most successful strategy is to trade picks for picks in future drafts.  All in all what I really proved was that the draft is a mixed bag and that you can never know what's going to work best.  I know pretty unfulfilling for me too.

 

One last thing i want to get into, is another way to look at the trade that netted us Kevin Kolb.  If one of the other teams came up to Andy and Howie and proposed a trade for this years 1st and offered a 3rd a 5th and their 1st in 2016 what do you think the Eagles should do?  Your answer should go a long way in telling you how successful you feel the trade in 2007 was.

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