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Study: Eagles Drafts Above Average, But Not Great Over Past 5 Years

CSN Bay Area did a study of every NFL team's drafts over the past five years and ranked them in terms of quality. It's an interesting study to check out, although I'd be more interested in seeing someone with more focused resources like Pro Football Focus or Football Outsiders take on a similar project. A lot of the conclusions drawn by the CSN Bay Area writers are suspect at best. For instance, Anthony Spencer is the Cowboys best pick of the past five years? Although maybe that's more of indictment of how bad the Dallas drafts have been than a compliment to Spencer... Also, their count of the Eagles draft picks from the past five years that are current starters is wrong.

That said, as I'm starting to realize, something like this is tough to do. We're doing a list of the 10 worst and 10 best picks of the Andy era this month and I'm finding tough to exactly quantify what a "bust" is. Some are easy and obvious... Others not so much. Take Reggie Brown for instance. The CSN study would have counted him as a good pick while he was still on the team because he was in the starting lineup for most of his career here. Drafting a "starter" is a good thing in their opinion. The study showers praise on the Falcons for picks like Sam Baker because he's a starter. As we know, Sam Baker isn't a very good starter... but he's a starter. Does that mean it was a good draft pick?

When you don't have the resources to have someone watching every game and scoring these picks, what other choice do you have? This is why it would be interesting to see someone like PFF take this on... But enough digressing, I'm sure you want to know the rankings.

Star-divide

The Eagles came in at #12, one spot behind the New York Giants at #11. The count the Eagles best pick as DeSean Jackson and their worst as Trevor Laws.

The Eagles' top rusher (LeSean McCoy) and top five pass-catcher (McCoy, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, Jackson and Brent Celek) were acquired through the past five drafts, but they've been less-successful finding standouts on their offensive and defensive lines. Their biggest risk paid off, as Andy Reid took a chance on Jackson with the No. 49 overall pick in 2008. Obviously, they've gotten a lot of return on that investment. But two picks earlier they selected Laws, whose increased playing time last year only resulted in 18 tackles -- 22nd on the team. To his credit, he did have four sacks.

I'd say that calling Trevor Laws a worse pick than say... Bryan Smith or Ton Hunt who were both picked in the past five years is comical... but again, it doesn't seem like the CSN did a lot of digging.

They say the Eagles have eight starters from their past five drafts. I counted 12. I'm not sure whether they discount guys like Max Jean-Gilles and Mike McGlynn who started because of injury last year, but the fact is that they still started all season. I don't know, you guys can go check out the roster and tell me how many starters you think the Eagles have that were drafted over the past five years.

Dallas came in at #28, while the Redskins came in #31. The Redskins have less players on their team drafted over the past five years than any other team in the NFL. The Cowboys have fewer current starters out of their last five drafts than any other team in the NFL. Only the Patriots (51) have made more draft picks over the past five years than the Eagles (47).

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The other reason I have always found comparisons like this dumb is that good teams usually have drafted well, and bad teams..well..haven’t. It tends to swing season by season too. Last year people may have said Dallas had drafted well with guys like Marian Barber, Choice and Felix Jones. This year, they suck, so obviously they drafted poorly.

by Clyde Simmons on Apr 4, 2011 10:59 PM EDT reply actions  

True.

And it doesn’t really seem to take into account what you do with traded draft picks. For instance, the fact that the Eagles traded a 1st round pick for Jason Peters has no effect on this analysis, but shouldn’t it? It doesn’t show anything about their ability to judge college talent necessarily, but it does speak to their ability to get value in return for a pick.

By this measurement, had the Eagles made that pick and taken a guy who is not as good but is still a starter… it would have been better for them.

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by JasonB on Apr 4, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Doug Free is their best pick, not Spencer. Oh wow, he has 11 sacks in the past 2 years despite DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff taking double teams. Anthony Spencer is the Ray Edwards of the linebacker position. Overrated.

Jason Peters: Heart of a Lion, Face of a Chipmunk.

by DickMuffin on Apr 4, 2011 11:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Come on guys
it doesn’t seem like the CSN did a lot of digging.

They couldn’t do more digging on teams then this. What the hell does CSN have to do this off season?

Hell it would have been a good read if they didnt fuck it up so bad.

by greenage on Apr 4, 2011 11:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Two drafting things the Eagles do that annoy the crap out of me

1. They have a quantity over quality mentality. Seems like they are always trading down in the second and third to pick up an extra fifth or sixth. Those picks turn into the Deeps, Tupou and M. Harris type guys that barely last a year on the roster.

2. Reid seems to think that third round draft picks a throw aways. He’s always reaching for players that should not be drafted before the fifth. (Te’o, B Smith, Gocong )

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 4, 2011 11:35 PM EDT reply actions  

uh

Have we forgotten Jamar Cheney already? Trent Cole? Some of these guys become gems.

by Jeff Sun on Apr 5, 2011 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

or

maybe you’d like it “quality over quantity” and trade up for ryan leaf

by Jeff Sun on Apr 5, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

I remember...

When everyone thought that Omar Gaither was going to be the next great Eagles LB after his rookie year. Look at him now. So don’t give me Cheney yet.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

that sounds like New England’s strategy as well…I guess it doesn’t work

"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy

by DirtyWaters on Apr 5, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

New England has...

Tom Brady. They weren’t shit before him and probably won’t be shit after he leaves.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

so your saying the problem is not the Eagles Draft, but their QB play…I didn’t see that as a bullet point

"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy

by DirtyWaters on Apr 5, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

No my point is...

That it’s not New Englands draft statagy that keeps them a top team which I thought was your point. Sorry if I got that wrong.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think you have their strategy wrong. They’ve said this before. They’ll trade down if they don’t see a difference in quality. They may not have 32 guys with a second round grade on their board. They may only have 10. If those 10 are gone and say they have 40 guys with a 3rd/4th round grade, their philosophy is just trade down and get two 3rd/4th talents rather than one(which is all that’s left in the 2nd round).

Now, that may or may not be smart… but it’s their strategy.

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by JasonB on Apr 5, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe the problem is...

how they grade players before the draft if they don’t see a difference between the players available at 51 last year and pick number 86 where they got Te’o.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe. I don’t really know. I guess you can’t tell until a couple years later whether the talent level in parts of the 2nd round is really any higher than the 3rd or 4th.

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by JasonB on Apr 5, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm loath to judge a player after one season.

Good or bad but on one hand you have a player who spent essentially the whole season on the inactive list (Te’o) and on the other hand some players drafted after the Eagles pick at 55 who became good contributors at positions of need for other teams (Spikes, Angerer,Spievey, etc) . I haven’t given up on Te’o yet and I’m not ignoring the other talent, which became Kafka and Harbor, that we obtained because of the trades. I’m just not a fan.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s fine, I wasn’t talking about him specifically. Just in general.

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by JasonB on Apr 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Umm
1. They have a quantity over quality mentality. Seems like they are always trading down in the second and third to pick up an extra fifth or sixth. Those picks turn into the Deeps, Tupou and M. Harris type guys that barely last a year on the roster

What about the picks that turned into Celek, Cole, (I believe) Coleman, Chaney, Fokou, Lindley (again I believe)…

2. Reid seems to think that third round draft picks a throw aways. He’s always reaching for players that should not be drafted before the fifth. (Te’o, B Smith, Gocong )

Te’o can’t count, he’s completely untested as a player.. Gocong gave us a few solid years, and it a pretty good player in Cleveland.. B Smith was a bad pick… But what about guys like Stewart Bradley, Brian Westbrook, and Burgess?

If you’re going to list the bad, please look up the good that’s come of this plan.. If we miss on 3rd rounders 4 times over to get 1 Westbrook like player then I’m ok with that..

Defensive player of the year for 2011 is...

Wild_Eagle!

Yes, Wild_Eagle's infamous reputation did help him get this award. But he shows that he walks the talk that he serves...with his keyboard. Wild_Eagle protects the motherland (BGN) from the evils of noobs, douche-bags, and other assholes. Although he may be crude and unnecessary, all great defenders draws the yellow flag from time to time.

-Awarded by Number5

by wild_eagle on Apr 5, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wild

Too early to say that last years draft class won’t end up on the scrap heap with Harris, Demps,Tupou, Fanaika, Ingram, Mays, Mike Gibson and so on. As for Celek and Cole I subscribe to the Blind Squirrel theory.

As far as the third round you would think you could do a lot better than two players over twelve years of drafting. I’d be willing to bet that most teams have a better than 16% success rate finding contributors in the third. No I don’t include Burgess, He never did shit for the Eagles

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

How can you not count Burgess? If we’re measuring talent evaluation here, that has to be a good pick.

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by JasonB on Apr 5, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Talent Evaluation

When they evaluated Burgess they didn’t think he was worth keeping. They certainly could have signed Burgess for much less than the Raiders did if they would have offered him a contract mid season. They had him in house and saw him everyday a practice but felt he didn’t warrant an extension. Remember this occurred during a time when the Eagles were consistently under the cap and handing out extensions to every player with even a hint of promise (Brown, Pinkston, etc). I call that poor talent evaluation.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

That wasn’t a draft decision though. That was a pro personnel situation based on his pro injury history. Not evaluation of a college player in the draft.

As for your other point, we don’t know what they could have done or tried to do. I don’t know that he would have accepted “much less” in mid season. I don’t know that they didn’t possibly offering him something. We can’t assume either.

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by JasonB on Apr 5, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I see the college and pro evaluation as...

as two sides of the same coin. I know this off topic but you can’t give the Eagles an A for finding a diamond in the rough by drafting Raheem Brock in the 7th. When they let him walk without offering him a contract.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm just using Brock as an example...

I know you’re not giving them an A for the pick.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

In that instance I would agree.

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by JasonB on Apr 5, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Check out the “Best and Worst Draft Classes” pdf on this site. The average draft produces 1.6 players that go on to have 5 years starting (on any team, not just the one that drafted them). Even worse, the average draft produces less than 4 players who last 5 years in the league.

I think those scrap heaps all around the league might just look a lot smaller than ours because you are not as close to them as you are to the one in Philly.

by ATG. on Apr 5, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

The sad part is the Eagles...

Only needed one year to find out they weren’t going to hit the average on the 2009 class and only two years to fall short on the 2008 class. I’m not sure, were you trying to help me make my point?

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Eagles hit a near homerun with the 2009 draft class in my opinion. They got two stars out of the class and another starter (Fokou for now).

I’d say that’s pretty well above average by any measure.

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by JasonB on Apr 5, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

The picks of Maclin and. Shady were examples of how I want Reid to draft. Both players were considered great value picks where the Eagles drafted them. Later when they started all the trading down was where I had a problem and it’s also where they got a bunch of waiver wire fodder.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 5:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

The picks of Maclin and. Shady were examples of how I want Reid to draft. Both players were considered great value picks where the Eagles drafted them.

Completely agree.

Defensive player of the year for 2011 is...

Wild_Eagle!

Yes, Wild_Eagle's infamous reputation did help him get this award. But he shows that he walks the talk that he serves...with his keyboard. Wild_Eagle protects the motherland (BGN) from the evils of noobs, douche-bags, and other assholes. Although he may be crude and unnecessary, all great defenders draws the yellow flag from time to time.

-Awarded by Number5

by wild_eagle on Apr 5, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Umm,

No… I mean Mays played in Denver I believe, Gibson’s a starter in Seattle, Tupou is still on the team… And no blind squirrel theory? That’s bullshit.

Based upon Talent evaluation, Gibson, Burgess, Celek and Cole are hits. Mays is decent, McGlynn’s a hit… You’re wrong, just accept it.

Defensive player of the year for 2011 is...

Wild_Eagle!

Yes, Wild_Eagle's infamous reputation did help him get this award. But he shows that he walks the talk that he serves...with his keyboard. Wild_Eagle protects the motherland (BGN) from the evils of noobs, douche-bags, and other assholes. Although he may be crude and unnecessary, all great defenders draws the yellow flag from time to time.

-Awarded by Number5

by wild_eagle on Apr 5, 2011 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't want to be thought of as a Reid detractor...

Because that couldn’t be further from the truth. I respect the fact that he completely revamped the roster he had in the Super Bowl and still constantly makes the playoffs. No easy task. But like with our girlfriends and wives there are still things with the ones we love that become our pet peeves. The fact that Reid regularly wastes third round picks on lowly rated prospects and all the trading down are mine.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 5, 2011 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mean the trading down's been more beneficial than not..

and 3rd round picks are typically busts anyway.

Defensive player of the year for 2011 is...

Wild_Eagle!

Yes, Wild_Eagle's infamous reputation did help him get this award. But he shows that he walks the talk that he serves...with his keyboard. Wild_Eagle protects the motherland (BGN) from the evils of noobs, douche-bags, and other assholes. Although he may be crude and unnecessary, all great defenders draws the yellow flag from time to time.

-Awarded by Number5

by wild_eagle on Apr 6, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Let me explain
and 3rd round picks are typically busts anyway.

3rd round picks are normally players who are very talented but need a year or three to get to a point they can play at a high level, many don’t make it.. I don’t think there’s a very high success rate on 3rd round picks anywhere in the NFL..

Defensive player of the year for 2011 is...

Wild_Eagle!

Yes, Wild_Eagle's infamous reputation did help him get this award. But he shows that he walks the talk that he serves...with his keyboard. Wild_Eagle protects the motherland (BGN) from the evils of noobs, douche-bags, and other assholes. Although he may be crude and unnecessary, all great defenders draws the yellow flag from time to time.

-Awarded by Number5

by wild_eagle on Apr 6, 2011 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have no idea what the precectage of third round picks make it...

but with the roster size and the average life span of an NFL player you have to assume that most teams can find more than three serviceable players in 12 years(fine I’ll include Burgess even though he was less than serviceable for the four years he was an Eagle). My point isn’t that Reid’s a bad drafter but that he, to often, takes unnecessary chances on players not rated to be third round talent in the third round. I’m sick of seeing Mayock shake his head after the Eagles make their 3rd round pick and saying he had the guy rated to go in the 5-6 range. This happened after the Gocong, B Smith, and Te’o picks. When he makes a pick like Matt Ware, who was supposed to be a value at the place the Eagles drafted him, and he flops I really don’t a problem with it.

I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.

by no1pipelayer on Apr 6, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

what I hate about these ratings

is they are always too black and white. They only base their assessment on whether a player was successful or not. If I were putting a list like this together I would have to factor in each individual team’s needs in addition to position value based on the other players left on the board that play the same position. i.e. Freddie Mitchell was an awful pick because of Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, etc. Jason Avant may seem like a solid pick, but Brandon Marshall was taken right after him. Jerome McDougle is a bad pick, not because he got shot and never recovered, but because Troy Polamalu was available and filled a need for the Eagles…I think you get my point. There is a website that has a breakdown of all this, but I don’t remember it…my bad.

"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy

by DirtyWaters on Apr 5, 2011 12:23 AM EDT reply actions  

They also don’t penalize teams for players without an injury history that incur a wrath of injuries that derail their NFL careers…in other words, if you draft a player coming off acl surgery that never becomes the same player, he is considered a bust, but if the player happens to tear his patella tendon (Allen) or knee ligaments( Graham) in their rookie season and never are able to fully recover, the team is not penalized

"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy

by DirtyWaters on Apr 5, 2011 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

McDougle was a bad pick before he was shot, knowing what Polamalu turned into just rubs our faces in it.

by 92-74-99-96 on Apr 5, 2011 5:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I agree on McDougle…I was just giving an example of a player taken where another was on the board at a position of need

"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy

by DirtyWaters on Apr 5, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Browns

Consistently stink,and don’t seem to be doing much improving over the yrs,even with high picks. I think Andy does a decent job of trading up to get more athletic picks.

Expect Greatness

by Dunta Is A PUNK on Apr 5, 2011 2:45 AM EDT reply actions  

It’s truly amazing how many times Cleveland strikes out using high draft picks. I guess the law of averages doesn’t apply in their case. Dazzling…

by 92-74-99-96 on Apr 5, 2011 7:14 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

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