What players in the NFC East are worth a 1st round pick?

by JimmyK on Apr 14, 2011 10:48 AM EDT

Every time a new rumor pops up about some team around the NFL that may or may not have interest in trading for Kevin Kolb, I'll typically check out the comments from that team's fan base to see outsiders' opinions on Kolb. To say the least, they're extremely varied. A rare few go as far as to say they'd give up a Top 10 pick for Kolb, whereas others compare him to a modern-day Scott Mitchell. For our younger readers, you'll just have to google Scott Mitchell. Personally, I see Kolb as "1^st round pick worthy," and it got me thinking... Who are the other players in the NFC East, that if they were clearly available for a trade, would get at least a 1^st round pick in return.

We'll go in alphabetical order, starting with Dallas:

Dallas Cowboys	Comment
NO-BRAINERS
DeMarcus Ware	No comment necessary
Miles Austin	Down year last year, but unquestionably worth a 1.
Jason Witten	Some call him the best TE in the game. I don't, but he's a likely Hall of Famer that's still only 28 years old
Jay Ratliff	Stellar 3-4 DT's are very hard to find
Tony Romo	He turns 31 a week from today, so I think at this point it's fair to say we have a pretty good idea of Romo's ceiling. But he has a reasonable contract and is still a borderline Top 10 NFL QB. There's no question on this one.
ON THE BUBBLE
Doug Free	I'd give up the Eagles' 1 for him right now, but I may have a higher opinion of Free than most.
Dez Bryant	There's a reason 23 teams passed on him in the 2010 draft, and he has proven all 23 of them right so far. However, his talent on the field is undeniable. Personally, I wouldn't go anywhere near this kid, but someone out there would.
CLOSE, BUT NO THANKS
Felix Jones	Last year I would have said yes, but the guy just hasn't produced enough, period.
Anthony Spencer	Gets so many favorable matchups it's comical, and simply hasn't made enough plays.

New York Giants
NO-BRAINERS
Justin Tuck	Best player on the Giants
Chris Snee	Among the best offensive linemen in football
Hakeem Nicks	Was drafted as a 1, and hasn't disappointed.
Osi Umenyiora	11.5 sacks and 10 forced fumbles last season. Let me say that again. TEN, as in 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 forced fumbles. He's available for a 1? Yes, please.
Jason Pierre-Paul	Was a project as a 1 last year, and looks like a find so far.
ON THE BUBBLE
Eli Manning	I can already see this turning into an "Eli is great, no he's not" debate, but for me, it's more about his awful contract. He's set to make $8.5 million in 2011 (which is fine), $10.75 in 2012 (still somewhat reasonable), and then it gets really ugly - $13 million in 2013, $15.15 million in 2014, and $17 million in 2015. On talent alone, sure, some team would give up a 1 rather quickly, but Eli isn't worth anything close to those ridiculous numbers he's set to make in 2013 and beyond. I think some team out there would ultimately pull the trigger, but it's not as much of a no-brainer as some would almost certainly suggest.
CLOSE, BUT NO THANKS
Steve Smith	He's a free agent but for a second we'll pretend he isn't, and has a reasonable contract - Nice player, but not quite talented enough to take a risk on with his health issues.
Ahmad Bradshaw	Same as Smith, he a free agent, but we'll pretend otherwise - Borderline Top 20 NFL RB. Not happening.

Philadelphia Eagles
NO-BRAINERS
Michael Vick	I shouldn't have to explain.
DeSean Jackson	Is there a player in the NFL that's more capable of "scoring anytime the ball is in his hands?" Chris Johnson, Maybe? Certainly nobody else is in that conversation.
Trent Cole	Good pass rusher and an elite run stopper from the DE position. As solid as they come.
Jason Peters	Big contract, but in a league hurting for left tackles, Peters would unquestionably get a 1 in return. He was nothing short of stellar the second half of 2010.
Asante Samuel	When people talk about the best corners in the game , it's always Nnamdi Asomugha and Darelle Revis. Asante is right there with them.
Jeremy Maclin	See Hakeem Nicks above.
LeSean McCoy	The Eagles transitioned seemlessly from the great Brian Westbrook to LeSean McCoy.
ON THE BUBBLE
Kevin Kolb	Anyone that reads this blog should expect me to put him in the no-brainer category, but to me it's not a "no-brainer," per se. I think he'll get back the equivalent of a "mid-1" if/when the Eagles finally get the opportunity to deal him. But if the draft shakes out the "wrong way," and all of the most QB needy teams draft QB's in the 1st or 2nd rounds, I might have to re-think things.
CLOSE, BUT NO THANKS
Todd Herremans	I really wrestled with this one, and while I think he's right there as far as the best guards in the game (and right there with Snee), I just don't think anyone is giving up a 1 for a really good vetaran guard that has a history of being banged up.
Brandon Graham	ACL.
Nate Allen	Talk to me in a year.

Washington Redskins	Comment
NO-BRAINERS
Brian Orakpo	Outstanding rookie season, best player on a bad defense.
Trent Williams	Up and down rookie season, but there's little doubt in my mind he'll be quality LT for years once he figures the NFL out.
ON THE BUBBLE
LaRon Landry	If highlight reel hits (both giving and receiving) did it for NFL personnel evaluators, there'd be a line around the block for Landry. He's an amazing athletic specimen, but just doesn't have the game (or the brains) to match his raw ability. He's more of a hitter than a tackler (misses way too many of them), and he's deficient in coverage in a pass-happy league. Personally, I'd want nothing to do with him, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a dumb NFL team make an enormous mistake here.
CLOSE, BUT NO THANKS
Chris Cooley	Actually, it's not really that close, but I feel bad naming only 3 Redskins total.
London Fletcher	Turns 36 in May.
Albert Haynesworth	No.

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Comments

no surprise where the redskins are

they really need to start building through the draft.

good post.

by Stuk on Apr 14, 2011 11:06 AM EDT reply actions

Great post.

Only thing I’d argue is Lesean McCoy. Not that he isn’t very good but RBs are just so dime a dozen now a days. Only the truely elite RBs in the NFL are worth a first. Once again though, great article.

by dallasgoesalltheway on Apr 14, 2011 11:10 AM EDT reply actions

It's a good point..

I think he is worth a 1st for the Eagles, for the simple fact that he fits their offense so well. Would he have the same value for a team like the Steelers? I guess that’s where your argument comes in….

FLY #7 FLY !!!

by BWestFactor on Apr 14, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I think you’re right. A lot of his value comes from how AR uses his RBs.

AR should have to wear a Flava Flav necklace until he learns how to manage a fucking clock.

by KByars on Apr 14, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I love McCoy

But I agree. He should probably be “On the Bubble.”

He’s a no-brainer high 2nd rounder. But borderline 1st I’d say.

by Smitty2K3 on Apr 14, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

111.5 total yards per game, 6th in the NFL. He is elite and is worth a 1st rounder now(he was the 53rd pick).

by Route36 on Apr 14, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

That was my thought exactly. There’s just so many good RBs, I don’t see how you’d get a first for him.

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by JasonB on Apr 14, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree, I think we’ve got a bit of a home biased against Shady. Was he greatly improved? yes. Could he be a product of Mike Vick and the system? Yes.

I think we could plug in 15 other running backs in the NFL and get similiar production.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Apr 14, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

which would be a fun excercise.. 15 running backs that would do as well or better than Shady in our system.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Apr 14, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think there are 15. I actually don’t even think there are 10.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Apr 14, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Addai, Charles, Starks, Turner, Jones-Drew, AP, Chris Johnson, Gore, Rice, and Arian Foster.

Those are my clear and free choices of better.Thats 10, and 1/3rd of the league.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Apr 14, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope you’re kidding with Addai and Starks, but especially Starks.

And while Turner is a good back, he’d be a terrible fit in Philly.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Apr 14, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Definately not kidding with Addai (best pass protection in the NFL. Peyton Manning probably has a lot to do with it, but).

Starks is one of those I think would actually do great in our system. But it is probably more unproven than fact. Would you rather it be someone like McFadden or Bradshaw? Mendenhall?

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Apr 14, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Would you rather it be someone like McFadden or Bradshaw? Mendenhall?

No, I’d take Shady over all three of those guys too.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Apr 14, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Shady broke 7 plays for 20+ yards last year.

McFadden had double. All other stats being pretty even for them.

Bradshaw had many more fumbles, but also broke more too. I think you gotta at least put them in the comparible category.

My point still being that Shady is not exceptional. He’s in a system that forces teams to stop the pass and stop Vick. I think McCoy benefits greatly from this.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Apr 14, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Those two guys had extraordinarily similar season last year. McFadden, however, has 3 years of development under his belt. McCoy has 2. If you look at McFadden’s first 2 years in the league, they don’t even come remote close to Shady’s.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Apr 14, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

And don’t get me wrong. I like McFadden. i just think we might be selling McCoy a little short.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Apr 14, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

But my point is, if you take one out and pop the other in, same production.

And McFadden doesn’t benefit from the stellar offensive weapons around him. I’m not calling Shady a bum, and I agree his potiential is much higher (and is trending upwards).

I’m just saying that I don’t think Shady is worth a 1st rounder, when 1/3rd of the NFL has a back that is compariable or better.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Apr 14, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Added note: I’m not saying we need to improve here. RB should never be a priority. We just need someone who isn’t gonna turn the ball over, who can pick up a blitz and have solid hands out of the backfield.

He’s exactly what we need, at the price we needed him at. He fits, plain and simple. But he’s not exceptional.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Apr 14, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ve got 11: Ray Rice, Peyton Hillis (assuming that he can maintain last year’s production), Maurice Jones-Drew, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Darren Mcfadden, Adrian Peterson, Deangelo Williams, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore

Good backs, maybe a stretch for being able to succeed in our system: Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Grant, Michael Turner

by Turd.Ferguson on Apr 14, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

cant believe I missed Deangelo Williams, big omission

I did leave Steven Jackson off, because I’m not sure how he’d fit

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Apr 14, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Steven Jackson runs good routes and looks the ball in… just ask Sheldon Brown… he could fit.

And, speaking of Sheldon and cardboard boxes, how about Reggie Bush? I think he would fit our system.

by ATG. on Apr 14, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

LOL we win!

"If I can get you to think twice, I'm in your head."
-Brian Dawkins

"Yeah, I like to hit people"
-Brandon Graham

by immynimmy on Apr 14, 2011 11:30 AM EDT reply actions

I think that this is a very fair analysis of all teams.

First, I’d like to say that I agree with you on your analysis of Eli. Talent-wise and based on past history, I’d put him in the top 10 or close to the top 10. But with the year he had last year combined with the massive salary, he isn’t quite a “no brainer” because it will give you pause to think. Of course, I’d gladly give up a first for him in the end, though haha.

Only issue I take with the Giants picks is Steve Smith. He should be “On the bubble” and that only because of his injury issues. If he wasn’t injury prone, he’s definitely a “no brainer.”
Not only is he the most sure handed pass catcher on the Giants, he Eli’s safety valve, and the past year (when he wasn’t injured) put up this line: 107 catches, 1220 yds, 11.4 YPC, 7 TDs which resulted in 61 1st down coversions. Those are “1st round no brainer” stats for me.
Otherwise, great job on the Giants.

As far as my opinions on the other teams, I think Cowboys and Redskins are perfect.

With your Eagles, I’d personally switch Kevin Kolb and Todd Herremans. That’s just me tho. I think Herremans is a beast, and should at least be ‘on the bubble’. I think Kolb can be successful, but he just hasn’t proved himself enough to justify a 1st round pick.

I think the only reason he’s going to garner a 1st rounder this year is because he’s a safer choice than any other QB in the draft, and there are a TON of QB needy teams that are desperate. Just my opinion, guess i’m high on herremans and low on Kolb

Final Dream Draft

1) Akeem Ayers, OLB
2) Marvin Austin, DT
3) Jake Kirkpatrick, OC
4) Chimdi Chekwa, CB
6) Henry Hynoski, FB
6) Jarriel King, OT
6) Josh Bynes, ILB
7) Ricardo Lockette, KR/PR

by BigBlueIntervention on Apr 14, 2011 11:30 AM EDT reply actions

fair argument on steve smith

JoeD AKA The Voice Of Reason

by Joe_D on Apr 14, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't give a 7th for Laron Landry

douchebag

by Lip-Out on Apr 14, 2011 11:31 AM EDT reply actions

That might be a bit of a stretch.

But I agree. Landry shouldn’t even be on the bubble.

by Smitty2K3 on Apr 14, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Meh, consider where you are sending it.

You could then simply offer Washington something shiny that makes noise and get your first back.

by ATG. on Apr 14, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn.. We should've kept Considine for this moment...

Defensive player of the year for 2011 is...

Wild_Eagle!

Yes, Wild_Eagle's infamous reputation did help him get this award. But he shows that he walks the talk that he serves...with his keyboard. Wild_Eagle protects the motherland (BGN) from the evils of noobs, douche-bags, and other assholes. Although he may be crude and unnecessary, all great defenders draws the yellow flag from time to time.

-Awarded by Number5

by wild_eagle on Apr 17, 2011 4:36 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd give them a first to watch Desean torch him again lol.

Defensive player of the year for 2011 is...

Wild_Eagle!

-Awarded by Number5

by wild_eagle on Apr 17, 2011 4:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Here's another interesting thought

While I think you’re being very generous on JPP and Trent Williams, here’s something else that struck me:

Of the 19 ‘no brainers’ on the list, only seven are former first round picks. Makes you wonder what all these teams did with their first round picks over the years (don’t remind me about Dallas, I know all too well what happened there).

Four others players in the no brainer category are former second rounders, eight – almost half – were drafted in the 3rd or lower (or not at all in the case of Austin, Romo and Peters).

by One.Cool.Customer on Apr 14, 2011 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

Yup, and I wonder how consistent the NFC East would be with the rest of the league in that regard.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Apr 14, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

There you go. Again, too much value/perception/speculation is made out of draft positions.

FLY #7 FLY !!!

by BWestFactor on Apr 14, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Well I think the logic there is sound in that if they were first round picks last year and haven’t done anything to erode their value, why wouldn’t they be worth a first this year?

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by JasonB on Apr 14, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t want to be argumentative, and if those are the criteria, then fine. But why wouldn’t those same criteria also apply to Dez Bryant and Brandon Graham?

I know ProFootballFocus is not held in high esteem here, but here is how all four NFC East 1st rounders from last year ranked versus their peers at their position last year:

Bryant: ranked 35th out of 105 WR’s
Graham: 28th out of 65 4-3 DEs
JPP: 37th out of 65 4-3 DEs
Williams: 65th out of 78 tackles

by One.Cool.Customer on Apr 14, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Because since last year’s draft, Graham tore his ACL (which is a devastating injury to recover from), and Bryant owes hundreds of thousands of dollars to every jeweler within a 50 miles radius of Dallas.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Apr 14, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn’t realized Williams was that bad!

by AZ Eagle on Apr 14, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I don;t think Landry or Austin are worth 1’s. Maybe 2’s at best. Also, I think with Dez and JPP should be on the bubble at best only because they’ve been in the league one year.

"If I can get you to think twice, I'm in your head."
-Brian Dawkins

"Yeah, I like to hit people"
-Brandon Graham

by immynimmy on Apr 14, 2011 12:18 PM EDT reply actions

I want to argue that Romo doesnt deserve to be considered worthy of a 1st rounder…..
…but all i can come up with is a new Category. “Worthy of a very late 1st rounder.” I cant see too many teams giving up anything better than a 23rd pick or later.
And even that is questionable since he is coming off of an injury…..

If you dont like Big Red, then F#%@ You!
-Ricky Bobby

by GreenInBaltimore on Apr 14, 2011 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

Was going to argue the same point

I didn’t realize Romo was 31 already, so here is the point McNabb was 33 and coming off an excellent year when he was traded for a 2nd round pick and I think a 4th and 5th rounder this year.

I don’t think the Cowboys would get a 1st rounder for Romo who pretty much has the same rep (good QB, can’t win the big game) as McNabb on top of that Romo is coming back from a season ending shoulder injury.

by Late for Dinner on Apr 14, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Also would argue Vick would not net a #1... but not becuase of his talent level

More because his style of play does not match up with a lot of teams and even though he has done everything he can to rehab his image he still carries a ton of baggage.

by Late for Dinner on Apr 14, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the baggage is gone

Sure, there are still some haters, but not really any risk anymore. There’s a chance i’ll have to eat my words, but it seems to me that he is completely done with causing trouble.

Also, regarding his style, I think Vick makes any team better. He is literlly like adding another player on the field. Whenever the defense has to worry about one guy that much, he makes everyone else better. I don’t see a single team that wouldn’t benefit from that.

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on Apr 14, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

He and Ware are probably the two best and most valuable players in the division.

by Smitty2K3 on Apr 14, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Mike has gone a long way in repairing his image.

I’ll concede the baggage becasue Mike has come along way.

Here is my point on his style of play. I’m not even arguing talent because he does stuff very few can on the football field but he also takes a ton of abuse out there and never plays a whole season. At some point you have to consider that he is going to become injury prone because of the amount of hits he takes playing his style and Mike don’t like to slide either.
Of course this post is totally subjective becasue it also depends on the skill of the GM to be able to bring back a No. 1 for any player, but I could see GM’s reluctent to give up a No. 1 for him because of that.

by Late for Dinner on Apr 14, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know if you caught this one, but excepting the broken fibula (which is not an injury likely to reoccur) Vick has start 92% of his games (66 out of 72). I don’t think injury prone is the right term. High risk, maybe, but not injury prone.

by ATG. on Apr 14, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Didn't say Vick was Injury prone

All I am saying is Vick is now over 30 sooner or later father time catches all of us. A QB that get’s hit a lot starts breaking down, look at what happened to Steve Young. Mike does not slide and he is a warrior but he takes a lot of abuse out there, chances are his body is gonna start breaking down if he does not alter his style soon.
Mike is good to miss 1 or 2 games a year because of a big hit he took in a game. That’s my only point I love watching the guy play.

by Late for Dinner on Apr 14, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Kinda nitpicking, but...

look at what happened to Steve Young

He was playing at a high level until he was like 37 and being San Fran’s starter for eight years, despite all his runnings and extra hits. If Vick does that, I’ll gladly take it.

RIP Jim Johnson, best ever.
Cam Newton: future QB bust

by Imp on Apr 14, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Decent points

I understand your argument on why someone wouldn’t want to give up a first for him…. but I guarantee that any of the 10 teams desperate for a stud QB would in a heartbeat. He is at higher risk of injury, but that’s a risk that every player takes. And Vick isn’t small. I know he looks small next to the o-line abd D-line, but he is built like a running back. The dude is straight yoked. 6-0, 215? That’s not a small or skinny guy. Chris Johnson is 5-11, 191 (24 lbs less), AP is 6-1, 217 (an inch taller and only 2 lbs heavier), Marshawn Lynch is 5-11, 215, bout the same size and Lynch is a freak. Vick is built to take hits and he’s definitely a tough guy.

Now I know what you may say. You may say that running backs don’t last long in this league and you’d be right. However, running backs attempt up to 380 runs per season (usually between 250 and 350 for a full season). Vick’s most attempts in a season was 123 so he takes much less abuse. It’s also usually in open space where he can see who’s coming and prepare for it.

Like ATG said above… aside from a freak broken fibula, he has been pretty durable. In this case, the risk is worth the reward in my opinion.

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on Apr 15, 2011 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Do you think he'll last longer than we expect?

Granted, he’s a high risk kinda guy. But he also didn’t play for 3 years that most starters do (I’m not counting his first season with us). There’s no way to think that that gives him an extra 3 years on his career. But if he ends up without any serious injuries do you think we might get an extra year or so out of him?

by Turd.Ferguson on Apr 15, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Good question

I have to first determine how long “we” expect to keep him for. Another 6 years maybe? That might be pushing it. I agree with you in that just because he didn’t play for 3 years doesn’t mean we can tack those on the end of his career. I am hoping for 6 more years of great production, will be OK with 5 years of good production, but I have a feeling we’ll get 4 years of great production, 2 years of mediocre/below average production, then we release him probably. What do you think? So my number that I expect him to play at a high level is 4 more years. I think that is pretty reasonable.

With that being said, I think we should get a QB soon to start developing.

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on Apr 16, 2011 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions

You're kidding yourself

by AZ Eagle on Apr 14, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

McNabb trade is an unfair scale to weigh it against…..
….Any time the Redskins or Raiders are the recieving trade partner, you should just throw the compensation package out the window because it isnt necessarily fair market.

If you dont like Big Red, then F#%@ You!
-Ricky Bobby

by GreenInBaltimore on Apr 14, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m beginning to have the theory that outside of the top 15 picks, a 1st rounders value drops dramatically. It becomes more of a crap shoot. While you’re probably getting a good player, you could usually trade down and get 2 players for the same value.

Lets try and excerise and try to express odds in this.

Say a player drafted at pick #20 has an 80% chance of being a fantastic NFL player. Use whatever definition you want for fantastic here.

Say you get an offer to pick up a 2 and a 3 for your #20.

What are the probabilities of that 2nd round and that 3rd round pick? We’ll assign them roughly similiar placements in the round, say #51 and #81.

Would you say that the pick at #51 has a 50% chance or greater to be a fantastic pick (by the same measurement that you used in round 1?)

Would you say that the #81 pick has a 30% chance or greater to be a fantastic pick, again by the same measurement?

50+30=80% chance to come out of it with a fantastic player. Also, by dividing the odds, you make it more likely to hit on at least 1. You also have a chance to end up with 2 fantastic players, and reduce the chances of missing completely.

This probably should be a fanpost.

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Apr 14, 2011 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

Those percentages are pretty arbitrary until you put in actual research.

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on Apr 14, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

fair enough

What percentage would you assign for success rates then?

I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.

by corn on the kolb on Apr 14, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

That is still only a 65% chance of having atleast one fantastic pick

Me Gusta Los Eagles

by RanjeethR on Apr 14, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

there is a 95% chance I’d be full of shit no matter what I say. What I would do (if i had the time/patience/motivation) is actually record the number of players taken at specific picks (maybe i’d do a range of 5) in the last 10 years or so, determine what percentage of each pick was successful. Then I’d base all my numbers on that and it would be very accurate. All you are doing is guessing what the percentages are. Anyone could do that. I do think it’d be a great fan post if you put in the research and came up with interesting results.

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on Apr 15, 2011 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions

As a start...

I think you have all the numbers too rosy. Check out the “Best and Worst Draft Classes” here to see the average draft class produces 1.6 5-year starters and 0.7 pro-bowlers. I would bet that historically, the #1 overall pick has not produced a fantastic player at an 80% rate.

That being said, the Eagles have certainly employed the strategy of getting extra picks in the parts of the draft where they think there is a positive deviation away from the standard bell curve. I have no problem with the strategy. The cost of doing so, however, is that there are only so many spots on a roster. The more guys you bring in looking for that hidden gem, the quicker you have to start tossing out the stones, which means you could end up cutting the gem before you identified it.

by ATG. on Apr 15, 2011 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions

...before you've identified him.

by ATG. on Apr 15, 2011 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions

psh

football players aren’t people.

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on Apr 16, 2011 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Let's not forget

this risk of cutting a quality guy before you’ve really identified who you’ve got is amplified if we end up losing 2 preseason games. Do you think that if we lose those two games that the powers that be will change our draft strategy and we’ll see more of a quality over quantity approach to the draft unlike what we’ve seen the last few years?

by Turd.Ferguson on Apr 15, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

In my humblest of opinions...

(which is always right cuz I’m awesome) I don’t see a change in draft strategy due to preseason games. They just don’t carry enough weight to change a strategy that has seemingly worked for the Eagles. As I’m sure you know, they say that drafts can’t really be graded until 3 years afterward. The only way I see a draft strategy change is if when they grade their past drafts, they realize that they make bad choices late in the draft. If they notice that they let quality guys go before they are properly evaluated, that could maybe possibly change their approach. However, in that case I wouldn’t fault the process, I would fault the decision-making personnel. Or maybe they notice that teams with early picks and fewer late picks are more successful than teams who draft in quantity. I think it may take a combination of those situations before any strategy gets overhauled. So no, I just don’t see our drafting strategy changing due to a couple preseason games. Would you agree?

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on Apr 16, 2011 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions

For the Giants

I would only argue about Osi being a no brainer… guy is older, had injuries, and has had malcontent issues. Not sure he is so clear cut.

by brisulph on Apr 14, 2011 1:26 PM EDT reply actions

Good Point

by Late for Dinner on Apr 14, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

yup ... definitelyg ood point

JoeD AKA The Voice Of Reason

by Joe_D on Apr 14, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Man, did Dez Bryant kill your parents or something? What do you have against him? He’s making the Cowboys look like geniuses and 23 other teams look like fools. If we didn’t already have Jackson and Maclin, I’d be really jealous of the Cowboys. He’s a hell of a player, and he’s going to be an absolute beast next year.

Until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached, no free agents can be signed and no players can be traded.:3™

by yomjoseki on Apr 14, 2011 2:27 PM EDT reply actions

probably bought some jewelry from Jimmy and hasn’t payed up yet …

by One.Cool.Customer on Apr 14, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I got caught soliciting his mother.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/

by JimmyK on Apr 14, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

HA!

Wow, Jimmy. Low blow.

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on Apr 14, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Easy Jimmy

by Late for Dinner on Apr 14, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Dez is a good talent

but people nut over him jus t a little TOO much. he still only has one season with 500 yards… OMG, next randy moss!!! na in all seriousness though, his character is quite the concern

JoeD AKA The Voice Of Reason

by Joe_D on Apr 14, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

That's becasue he is on the Cowboys

by Late for Dinner on Apr 14, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t like Dez, but there’s not arguing he’s a top talent right now. You said he had 500 yards receiving, which is only a half (kind of truth). He had 561 yards receiving in spite of being injured for 1/4 of the season. If you extrapolate that out, he would have ended with about 745 yards, not to mention contributions to the punt game.

honestly, I hope he ends up out of the league due to character problems, cause I don’t look forward to him playing the eagles.

by eagleyosh on Apr 14, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Great list...

But shouldn’t Roy Williams be a “no brainer” for Dallas? Nah I’m just kidding.

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Mikesta on Apr 14, 2011 3:29 PM EDT reply actions

Where's Donovan McNabb?

He’s worth two 1st rounders. And more.

by Chris33hos on Apr 14, 2011 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

lol not even the skins were that dumb...2nd a nd a 4th

JoeD AKA The Voice Of Reason

by Joe_D on Apr 14, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, I don’t think a team would give up a first round pick for Jason Witten at this point.

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by JasonB on Apr 14, 2011 7:34 PM EDT reply actions

There’s some precedence. Tony Gonzalez was traded for a 2 when he was 33 (5 years older than what Witten is now). The Saints traded a 2 and a 5 for Shockey when he was Witten’s age, and he was nowhere near as good as Witten is.

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by JimmyK on Apr 14, 2011 8:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I’m just trying to figure a scenario where a team would trade a first for a TE. I guess in those cases they were teams that felt they were Superbowl contenders and those guys might be a final piece. But would a team surrender a first in that situation?

Plus, everyone knew the Saints trade was dumb even when they made it.

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by JasonB on Apr 14, 2011 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Can’t argue with you on the dumb Saints trade.

However, if someone said he was available for the Eagles’ 1, even though there isn’t much of a need there at all, I’d think long and hard about it. It would be pretty hard to pass up a guy that consistently catches 80-90 passes for 900-1100 yards every season, is reportedly a great guy in the locker room, never misses a game, and is a good (not great, Cowboys fans) blocker.

And I don’t even think he’s the best TE in the game. Others do. The last time a TE wasn’t taken in the first round was 1999, which is enough evidence for me that teams value the position. I’d be shocked if all 31 would pass up Witten for a 1.

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by JimmyK on Apr 15, 2011 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions

and 2011

I don’t see a TE being drafted in the 1st round this year. That’s an interesting fact though… Even though I just spent a couple paragraphs defending how important tight ends can be, I am still surprised to hear that every draft this millennium has had a 1st round tight end drafted.

"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath

by David_K on Apr 16, 2011 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions