Icing The Kicker Is Useless, So Why Do Coaches Do It?
ESPN Stats & Info did some great research on "icing" the kicker. It was brought on by the Cowboys essentially losing two straight when their kicker missed a potential game winning or tying FG after being "iced." Against the Cardinals, he was iced by his own coach and against the Giants he had his attempt blocked. Just in case you didn't know "icing the kicker" is when a coach takes a timeout moments before a kick.
The theory is that if you give the kicker more time to think about the kick and disrupt his rhythm, the more nervous he'll become. In reality, it doesn't appear to be true. In fact, kickers who were "iced" in the last :10 of a game were more accurate from every distance than kickers who were not iced. The biggest spread comes on 50+ yard kicks. Kickers who were iced made 77.8% of their kicks, while kickers who were not iced made only 37.5%.
So a coach is more likely to get a FG kicker to miss a kick at the end of a game by not icing the kicker, which begs the question... why do they still do it? My guess? It's game theory.
I once read this report that an economist did studying penalties in soccer. In that situation, the kicker stands just a few feet away from the goaltender, who is protecting a giant goal. The advantage is far in favor of the kicker. Usually, the goaltender just hazards a guess as to which way the kicker will go and dives that direction. Usually, kickers will fire the ball to either corner of the net, but the study found that those balls kicked straight down the center actually had the highest percentage of success.
So this economist talked to players about why they wouldn't kick the ball right down the middle more? The answer he got was that if you kick the ball down the middle and it gets saved, you look like a fool. If you fire the shot wide or the goalie makes the save when you're shooting for the corner, you may not get the goal, but you look kinda cool for attempting it. So the game theory here revealed that players are worried about more than just what the optimal way to score is. How they look doing it also affects their decision making.
My guess is that NFL coaches are the same way. If you call a timeout and try to ice the kicker and he makes it, no reporter will ask you "why did you that?" Fans will not call up sports radio to blame you for the kicker making the kick, because at least you tried, even though in reality you probably only made it easier for the kicker.
But if you do nothing and just let the guy kick the ball and he makes it... You will have to answer the question "why didn't you call a timeout?" Fans will call sports radio and claim that if you had just iced the kicker, he would have missed the kick and your team would have won the game. Damn those stats that say otherwise!
So that's the game theory here. Coaches' decision making processes aren't just about their own experience or what stats tell them is the right call in this situation. If it was, they wouldn't ever try to ice the kicker. These guys are in charge of everything that happens with the team. Every play is designed, planned and called painstakingly for every situation. Their predisposition is to always do something... which is problem when doing nothing is the call that needs to be made.
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Dang, I came here to say “because they have to do something, even if there’s nothing productive they can do.”
But you already said it perfectly. So I guess I’ll go with a rec instead.
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So you are saying that Jason Garrett was brilliant for icing his own kicker? was he reading those stats? Why don’t coaches ice their own kicker more often?
Oh boy, is this great!
by MayIhave10,000marblesplease? on Dec 13, 2011 12:13 PM EST reply actions
same reason as above
its not the stats that matter, its the way the fans will react if the kicker made the first attempt but missed the second
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Weird explanation. I feel like they do it because they want to have more control over the situation. The coach can call a play for every crucial defensive or offensive possession, but he can’t do anything when it comes to a FG attempt.
by The Pied Piper on Dec 13, 2011 12:13 PM EST reply actions
Garrett’s new favorite drink? Baileys on ice
I like turtles.
by Bleediots on Dec 13, 2011 12:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions 3 recs
I've suggested for years that you would be better to not call the timeout
Because now every kicker is expecting it…by not doing it, I think they get surprised and it disrupts their rhythm even more.
In trying to scramble out of a hole, it sometimes digs it deeper. ~Wellington Mara
I always root for the defense. ~Wellington Mara
I've been saying the same thing
Icing the kicker is expected now. When they line up they are probably just waiting for the timeout to be called. When it’s not and the snap happens they aren’t ready and rush, which can be a disaster for the kicker.
Icing The Kicker Is Useless, So Why Do Coaches Do It?
Because if they don’t they’ll need to answer countless reporters asking them why they did not. Of course, you need to make sure that it is the opposing kicker that you ice and not your own.
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This is exactly what Jason wrote…
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Good post. And if you want any additional evidence that coaches serve their own long-term interests by making decisions that have good optics even if they are statistically unfavorable, how about Marty Mornhinweg’s coin-flip decision in Detroit?
That decision probably gave the Lions better odds of winning the game, but when Marty fell on the wrong side of the odds, he was forever (and unfairly) branded as a dumbass.
by Clyde Simmons 96 on Dec 13, 2011 12:42 PM EST reply actions
What are you referring to exactly?
"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath
That decision probably gave the Lions better odds of winning the game
How so? How does not taking the ball increase your chances of winning in a sudden death overtime game? The 2002 Lions weren’t the 2000 Ravens or anything. Their defense wasn’t that good. Plus, it’s not like Paul Edinger didn’t know how to negotiate the wind in his home stadium. He was in his third year with the Bears. It’s not like he was an outstanding kicker, but he did convert 83.9% of his attempts in 01-02 and 78.6% in 02-03. True the wind may have made like a 55 yard field goal unmakable, but given how bad the Lions were it doesn’t seem like the odds were that great that they would stop the Bears from getting within their own 30 yard-line. To me, that decision was not the right one regardless of the outcome.
by FooFighter1124 on Dec 15, 2011 4:14 AM EST up reply actions
It's dumb.
It seems like they’re just helping the kicker by giving them a practice shot. When you shoot a basketball at a hoop (or a ping pong ball at a cup), your first shot helps you judge the distance and angle. Your second shot is invariable better as a result.
What the coaches should really do is make a bunch of fanfare on the sideline like they’re going to ice the kicker, and then not do it. That way the kicker has it in his mind that he’s about to get iced, which could be distracting.
I think the coach is looking for tell.
The coach is trying to catch the other team trying to run a fake field goal.
by Saidrick on Dec 13, 2011 1:13 PM EST via mobile reply actions
There potential added value is in suprise.
The reason soccer players don’t shoot down the middle every time is that if they became known for that, the goalie would anticipate it and it is an incredibly easy save if expected.
by Philly born and bred on Dec 13, 2011 1:57 PM EST reply actions
But then if that is expected
it gives the goalie 3 areas to block a save instead of just the two sides which increases everyone’s % of goal scoring.
"I don’t know whether I prefer Astroturf to grass. I never smoked Astroturf." - Joe Namath
But that doesn’t explain why they would not choose to do it in a single situation. Because it’s not as if guys are doing it right now. They’re expected to shoot to either side and by and large, that’s what they do.
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True. But teams usually have a regular penalty taker, and keepers study film – especially before tournaments where penalty shoot-outs are likely. You’d get an advantage, but only for 2 or 3 attempts. And actually, quite a few players do just blast it down the middle these days.
by scottisheagle on Dec 14, 2011 5:14 AM EST up reply actions
A good strategy against individuals, not against kickers in general
Icing the kicker is probably one of things that worked well in some situations but coaches lost perspective as to WHY. All the reasons why kickers are iced are good ones, I just think that it only applies to certain individuals whose jitters can be repeatedly exploited. The rest of them aren’t affected at all as the stats show. And just because a kick is missed after an icing doesn’t mean that it was directly related to it – he might’ve missed anyway for any number of reasons.
Because the Giants beat Dallas? I don’t know even know if you can count that because the kick was blocked, not shanked or anything.
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Its a confidence issue people
There is a confidence factor when a kicker is iced. Was the first FG good? Yes? That give any kicker such as Bailey confidence (or false competence) into believe that the effort he gave on the first kick is all that is required for the 2nd kick to be good. Think about it, as it definitely is the reason there is such a difference in the 50+ yard FGs. Most miss the first time (37.5% success) but if they are iced, it jumped to over 70%. Why? Because after the first kick which is most likely a miss, the kicker begins thinking, “I MUST GIVE A BETTER EFFORT THIS NEXT KICK” – concentrates more, more power and percision
or, a timeout allows for plenty of time to set up
if the game clock is winding down and the team with the ball has no timeouts as they rush the FG team on for a last second 50-yard FG, the chance of the snap being hurried and the kicker being more frazzled, is higher. the 37.5% to 77.8% stat is obviously skewed by these type of scenarios, before half or at the end of a game when the kicker and the FG unit are hurried, and when they go un-iced
Its the same reason coaches don’t go for it more on fourth down. Even though the percentages say go for it, they’ll still punt it away because its the safe play.
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Yeah but at least with that you can say there’s a negative consequence for failure. You turn the ball over. Plus, you actually get to call a play and can really influence the outcome.
With kickers, none of that is really true.
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Well it works on Bailey
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RIP JJ
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Well, to be fair, the second kick was blocked. So I don’t know if that really counts.
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because sometimes
the kicker makes it the first time, yet is iced… then when he tries again a guy named Jason gets his hand in the way and wins you the game.
by Plaxico Burress on Dec 13, 2011 5:10 PM EST reply actions
I think like Coughlin said
there’s certain moments you use it and others you don’t.
Like 2 weeks ago vs the Packers, we didn’t ice Crosby (or maybe we were out of timeouts…). Either way, last week was the first time in a while I remember Coughlin icing the opposition.
For a rookie kicker who failed after being iced the week before, perhaps its a good idea. For a veteran kicker like Crosby, you’re just giving him a practice shot.
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But you can’t say that Coughlin “icing” the kicker made a difference here. At least not on the kicker. We don’t know whether that kick would have gone in if it wasn’t blocked.
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This is true
As a Giant fan I can easily agree that calling a timeout didn’t appear to make a difference on Bailey’s kick itself (looked pretty accurate coming off JPP’s fingers
However given the circumstance with what happened to Dallas in the previous game, “icing the kicker” in the following game was a good “deja vu phsycological mind f*ck” attempt - IMO that’s what Coughlin was going for.
It was a first for me to see him call it in a game – which I found interesting – he’s not one for gimmicks – a la - -- nevermind, I won’t go there.
"It is super important to come out right away and stuff it down people's throats and make them respect the run. We have Hakeem and Mario and Cruz and then they can get off as well. It starts with the running game always."
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I see that
but I still find that a good idea than blindly icing everyone. Coughlin had a plan and it worked in this case. Not that I’m going to expect a blocked kick after every icing now
Self-praise is for losers. Be a winner. Stand for something. Always have class, and be humble.
-John Madden
The Ballard of Jake:
Stop→Slow→Truck→LEAP!
(Adopted from Raptor 22)
Interesting data, I have a few questions on both data collection and definitions. Does “icing” include your own team calling timeout to allow for proper set up, or only when an opposing coach calls an “expected-unexpected” timeout. Knowing your coach is allowing you more time to properly set up for the kick on the field instead of running onto the field with only 15 seconds to prepare is very different to “being iced.”
Second, they need to parse it into another category – “effective icing.” In this situation, the kicker is forced to make a second attempt the first kick was nullified by a timeout. I feel like it is much more disruptive to have a kicker go through the motions twice, rather than calling timeouts with 5 seconds on the playclock and the ball not being snapped.

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