FanPost

Run vs Pass... with stats!

There was another post that sorta dealt with this topic that I wanted to address. I started typing, and thinking, then more typing. Next thing i know I basically have a post of my own, so here it is. My response to the question of run/pass ratio and offensive predictability.

  How can you be the #1 offense and too predictable all at the same time?


BIG PLAYS!!! Just because a team knows you are gonna go deep doesnt mean they can stop you. In the game against the Titans at the end everyone knew who was getting the ball, we just couldnt stop it. Thats how it was with the Vick to DeSean connection. The problem is that eventually it will get figured out, and a team will be able to stop it. You know why Kolb had success when he wasnt in. The offense wasnt predictable. which brings me to point # 2

We are not balanced enough  and being dubbed the #1 offense in the NFL.

We win when we run the ball 50% of the time

Check out the stats for the games while Vick was out. McCoy had the most touches by far in those games. Unlike when  Vick returned those game plans were well balanced and it took the pressure off of Kolb. Look at the first Washington game. McCoy had 174 all purpose yards. He was the reason that that game was even close. Why did they go to him. Because they were giving up the underneath stuff and we took it. why couldnt that adjustment have been made later on in the season? McCoy showed that he could also put the team on his back. Why didnt we give him the chance to down the stretch? Because we were playing from behind?/??? Well we trailed that entire washington game and he still had a ton of touches. And if you should run when you're ahead why did he have so few touches in the second redskins game. I'm all for passing, and i love the excitement of the big play, but im  not naive enough to think that those plays work all the time.

Now for everyone that thinks that passing is so awesome and likes stats, check out these...

Passing Rk     Team     G     Pts/G     TotPts     Comp     Att     Pct     Att/G     Yds     Avg     Yds/G     TD     Int     1st     
1     Indianapolis Colts     16     27.2     435     450     679     66.3     42.4     4,609     6.9     288.1     33     17     253     
2     S D Chargers              16     27.6     441     359     544     66.0     34.0     4,519     8.7     282.4     30     13     236     
3     N. O Saints               16     24             384     450     661     68.1     41.3     4,441     7.0     277.6     33     22     236     
4     Houston Texans       16     24.4     390     365     574     63.6     35.9     4,144     7.6     259.0     24     12     222     
5     Green Bay                16     24.2     388     352     541     65.1     33.8     4,124     8.0     257.8     31     13     204     
6     Dallas Cowboys       16     24.6     394     379     576     65.8     36.0     4,042     7.3     252.6     29     19     201     
7     Denver Broncos       16     21.5     344     334     580     57.6     36.2     4,038     7.4     252.4     25     12     204     
8     Wash Redskins       16      18.9    302     349     605     57.7     37.8     3,913     7.0     244.6     21     19     194     
9     Philadelphia Eagles        16  27.4     439     348     561     62.0     35.1     3,906     7.5     244.1     28     13     189     
10     New York Giants        16  24.6     394     339     539     62.9     33.7     3,885     7.4     242.8     31     25     192     

that is the top 10 passing offenses in the NFL.... what do 9/10 of them have in common? They are watching the game from home. the only one who isnt is Green bay and they are in by relying on a undrafted rokkie RB. Now lets also look at the fact that except for the texans ( who would have went alot farther with a competent defense.. eerily familiar), and the Giants ( no comment) none of these teams had an established run game.

Now lets look at the teams still in the playoffs.....

New England
RUSHING (Plays-Average Yards)     454 - 4.3
TOTAL PASSING YARDS     3847     
PASSING (Comp-Att-Int-Avg)     331 - 507 - 5 - 7.9     


Atlanta
RUSHING (Plays-Average Yards)     497 - 3.8
TOTAL PASSING YARDS     3567     
PASSING (Comp-Att-Int-Avg)     361 - 577 - 9 - 6.5     

Pittsburgh
RUSHING (Plays-Average Yards)     487 - 3.8
TOTAL PASSING YARDS     3335     
PASSING (Comp-Att-Int-Avg)     308 - 491 - 10 - 7.4     

Chicago
RUSHING (Plays-Average Yards)     414 - 3.9     
TOTAL PASSING YARDS     3015     
PASSING (Comp-Att-Int-Avg)     276 - 466 - 21 - 7.3

Green Bay
RUSHING (Plays-Average Yards)     421 - 3.8     
TOTAL PASSING YARDS     4124     
PASSING (Comp-Att-Int-Avg)     352 - 541 - 13 - 8.3

New York Jets
RUSHING (Plays-Average Yards)     534 - 4.4     
TOTAL PASSING YARDS     3242     
PASSING (Comp-Att-Int-Avg)     288 - 525 - 14 - 6.5

Seattle Seahawks
RUSHING (Plays-Average Yards)     385 - 3.7
TOTAL PASSING YARDS     3341     
PASSING (Comp-Att-Int-Avg)     324 - 544 - 20 - 6.5

Baltimore Raves
RUSHING (Plays-Average Yards)     487 - 3.8     
TOTAL PASSING YARDS     3335     
PASSING (Comp-Att-Int-Avg)     308 - 491 - 10 - 7.4

and in comparison... the Eagles...

RUSHING (Plays-Average Yards)     428 - 5.4
TOTAL PASSING YARDS     3906     
PASSING (Comp-Att-Int-Avg)     348 - 561 - 13 - 7.5

and even that is misleading because 100 ( almost 25%!!) of those rushes are from Vick. None of us really believe all of those are planned running plays so i'll just say 50% (yeah right) of those were planned. That puts the run pass ratio at 378-616. No one in the playoffs is any where near that ratio. My point is our offense may look pretty on paper, but if a more balanced offense will make us annual contenders like some of these teams are, i vote that we change a few things. 

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