Just For Fun: Exploring Kevin Kolb's Trade Value
by Bob_Q on Sep 29, 2010 7:24 PM EDT
in Philadelphia Eagles News
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As a fun little exercise, I figured it would be interesting to explore Kevin Kolb's trade value, should Andy Reid decide to take his benching decision one step further and rid himself of the young quarterback entirely. He has already declined to go on the record stating that Kolb will be with the team past the trade deadline, so anything is possible.
To get a handle on what the Eagles could get in return for Kolb, let's take a look at the quarterback trades that have happened throughout the season so far. We'll start off waaaaay back on March 9th, when Seneca Wallace awoke to suddenly find himself in a Browns uniform.
Seneca Wallace
Trade: Seahawks to Browns
Value: Conditional 7th round pick in 2011
Analysis: You can't really get much less for a veteran quarterback with 14 games of starting experience, but let's face it, at 30 years old, Wallace ain't exactly a player to build your franchise around.
Trade: Browns to Broncos
Value: FB Peyton Hillis, 6th round pick in 2011, conditional pick in 2012
Analysis: As any fantasy football player will tell you, Peyton Hillis has turned out to be a pretty valuable asset to the Browns. At the time of the Brady Quinn trade, however, he was not much more than a Charles Scott-eque fullback getting lost in the shuffle. Still, two late round draft picks and a depth player aren't a bad exchange for a quarterback with 67.2 passer rating last season.
Value: 7th round pick in 2011
Analysis: Unlike the Seneca Wallace trade, I think the 49ers received exactly what Hill was worth here.
Charlie Whitehurst (plus 60th overall pick)
Trade: Chargers to Seahawks
Value: 40th overall pick, 3rd round pick in 2011
Analysis: Here is the most comparable trade that I can find to a potential Kolb deal. At the time of the trade Charlie Whitehurst was one of the most (if not the most) unproven quarterbacks in the NFL. In four years of playing for the Chargers behind Philip Rivers, he accumulated stats in exactly two regular season games. Both were in his rookie year, and both were rushing plays. That being said, one was a 14-yard scramble for a touchdown, but still, it wasn't exactly a showcase of his talent as a quarterback. Nevertheless, the Chargers managed to turn Whitehurst, who was never going to get a chance to start anyway, into a mid-round pick next year and a move up to the 40th overall pick (which, by the way subsequently was used to trade up for Ryan Mathews). If we were to trade Kolb - and Tom Heckert didn't give up his promised two first rounders - this level of compensation is likely what we could expect.
Trade: Eagles to Redskins
Value: 37th overall pick, conditional 3rd/4th round pick in 2011
Analysis: Let's face it: this trade has been analyzed to death.
Trade: Buccaneers to Steelers
Value: 7th round pick
Analysis: For a solid backup quarterback, the Bucs received very little in the way of compensation. However, the fact that Leftwich was likely to be cut anyway factors pretty heavily into the deal.
Trade: Redskins to Raiders
Value: 4th round pick in 2012
Analysis: After McNabb made his way to Washington, everyone knew Campbell was a goner. The Redskins, apparently thinking far into the future, made out with a fourth round pick for their former starter. Now, after Bruce Gradkowski has taken over the starting job after only a week and a half of a Campbell-led offense, this trade is starting to look pretty Washington-friendly after all.
Trade: Redskins to Ravens
Value: CB Doug Dutch
Analysis: Much like the J.J. Arrington/Joe Mays trade that the Eagles underwent during the preseason, the Ravens and Redskins swapped one scrub for another. The only difference here is that the Ravens weren't lucky enough to have a draft pick clause in their agreement. Dutch is now a free agent.
Sage Rosenfels (plus WR Darius Reynaud)
Value: 5th round pick in 2011, conditional pick in 2012
Analysis: For a quarterback on the wrong side of 30 with only 12 starts to his name, the Vikings managed to make out pretty well with two future draft picks. They did have to throw in WR/KR Darius Reynaud, but with Percy Harvin averaging 27.5 yards per return and 2 return TDs last year, I don't think the Vikings are going to shed any tears over his departure. They simply caught the Giants in a desperate situation after Jim Sorgi went down for the year and were able to come away with a pretty good value for their veteran backup.
So, what do you think the Eagles could get in exchange for Kevin Kolb?
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I still think (hope) the plan is to feature Vick this season to trade him and postpone Kolb one year. That said, the value has gone down significantly since the summer when the rumor was 2 #1’s. Now I think they will be lucky to get 1 #1 pick and a more likely scenario would be a 2nd rounder and a late rounder.
We can't trade Vick
His contract is over after this year.
"That's what I love so much about this team. We have some warriors here. We have some guys who go out there and fight. That's the best thing about this team. No matter what happens, we just keep fighting. You have to love that."
by chrisbeomsuh on Sep 29, 2010 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
How about the last time Vick’s promising back up was traded Matt Schaub
Atlanta and Houston flip-flop first-round picks(10, 8), and Atlanta received Houston’s second-round picks in 2007 and 2008.
Exactly
Unless I’m missing something, Schaub seems like the best comparison of the entire lot – a promising back-up who finds himself at the wrong place at the wrong time. Most of these other guys had already been tried by their original team (at least to some extent) and found wanting. That’s not the position Kolb’s in, is it? At least not yet?
by dave in san mateo on Sep 30, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Schaub's probably not the best comparison
Schaub was THE hot backup QB. Kolb had a shaky preseason, had a horrible half against GB, and got benched. So I get that Vick’s a common theme — and Vick’s actually playing better now than he did in ATL — but Schaub was the flavor of the month, and, if I’m a GM, I’m looking at Kolb’s preseason/season to date and really wondering whether he’s a legit starter at this level.
Good job Bob! That was a fun read
If for some reason, The Eagles decided to part ways with Kevin, I hope he still has as much trade value (2 first round picks according to Heckert) as he did this offseason. But, if not, I would take a 1st or 2nd and a 4th and 5th rounder.
My backup quarterback hunts wild hogs and kills rattlesnakes in his free time...What does your quarterback do?
What about Cassel?
The road to victory!
by jayt on Sep 29, 2010 8:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm just looking at the QB trades that have happened this year.
Although a 2nd round pick is about on the level with we should expect in this hypothetical situation. However, keep in mind that Cassel already had almost a complete season of starting for the Patriots under his belt when he was traded.
And he had a pretty good showing during that season also.
"If it bleeds, we can kill it" -Dutch
"Men are clinging to football on a level we aren't even aware of. For centuries, we ruled everything, and now, in the last ten minutes, there are all these incursions by women. It's our Alamo."
-Tony Kornheiser
Honestly, at this point if we are going to explore a trade I think we might only be looking at an early 3rd, and a third the next year. I can’t see his trade value being higher than that because of how his benching happened. I know how Reid spun it, but does anyone believe that at this point?
"If it bleeds, we can kill it" -Dutch
"Men are clinging to football on a level we aren't even aware of. For centuries, we ruled everything, and now, in the last ten minutes, there are all these incursions by women. It's our Alamo."
-Tony Kornheiser
I think we can get a 2nd and 3rd for him. People need to stop with this “I hope we are only play Vick to bump up his trade value” 1) He is a FA after this year 2) It would make no sense for the Eagles to do that if he has a good year to go back to Kolb 3) Even though Kolb is liked in the locker room, I think if Vick has a good year if he were to leave it would piss off the guys on the locker room especially Jackson and Maclin
If Vick gets the Eagles into the playoffs then there is no way the FO lets him go in favor of a QB that they had once put faith in and then benched. I think that the Eagles are trying to distance themselves from a bad decision.
I hope I am wrong, but Kolb is a four-letter word.
by Cowboy KILLER on Sep 29, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
People need to stop with this "I hope we are only play Vick to bump up his trade value" 1) He is a FA after this year
It’s called the franchise tag:
In the National Football League, the franchise tag is a designation a team may apply to a player scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent. The tag binds the player to the team for one year if certain conditions are met. Each team has access each year to only one franchise tag (of either the exclusive or non-exclusive forms) or one transition tag. As a result, each team may only designate one player each year as that team’s franchise player.
Do you realize how much we’d have to pay him if we franchise him? And that would carry through the trade as well. You’re likely talking about 18-19 million on that 1 year deal.
If you dont like Big Red, then F#%@ You!
-Ricky Bobby
by GreenInBaltimore on Sep 29, 2010 9:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I am not sure it will be that much.
Based on what?? The franchise tag last year was at 16.4 and all signs point to Brady + Manning getting new deals and becoming the 1st and 2nd highest paid QBs. No one knows what Dan Snyder is going to do in DC in regards to McNabb. It would be entirely possible that he has a hot 3 game stretch at some point this year and the bank is broken to extend him making him a top 5er.0
There are 2 possible options 1) The franchise tag is elimated during CBA negotiations 2) The franchise number for a QB goes up…. way up. The cap number going down is not an option.
VOID!!!
by dt3 on Sep 29, 2010 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't see why they'd trade Kolb
unless his salary becomes an issue.
Because you also have to factor in the price of acquiring a promising backup QB … there’s no way we can put a season on Kafka if Vick has to miss a few games or more.
I would say from the examples here that the Whitehurst deal is the benchmark aka the lowest the Eagles should go. Personally, I’m not in favor of trading promising young quarterbacks, but if it gets to a point where we’d lose Kolb for nothing, then it’s wise.
Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome
unless we get a cant miss trade
then its stupid to trade such a long term project for one measly pick..unless that pic is a first rnder or a great young player
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
Long term project.........
is now still 3 years away from even being somewhat good, if that. Since we went the Vick route, I’d say just give up on Kolb. Had we just stuck with the growing pains this year, then it would be completely different. I’d take a 3rd for Kolb at this point.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
this level of compensation is likely what we could expect
If we can only get a 3rd rounder for Kolb, then I hope to god that they just keep him. At this point the future of this team after this season ends has so many different outcomes that no one know what will happen.
I mean do you guys really think if vick takes us to at least the NFC championship (big if) that all we still start kolb next season (as if that was the plan all along?)
"If I can get you to think twice, I'm in your head."
-Brian Dawkins
"Yeah, I like to hit people"
-Brandon Graham
i'll be the first one...
let’s just come out and say what we all want to say.
1) keep Kolb until the offseason… we never know how Vick will play out and Kolb is the best backup in football (thats funny… we said the same thing about Vick going into the season!)
2) trade Vick in the offseason ( unless he plays EVERY game like he did Week 3 vs the Jags…) – Kolb will be our starter next year
3) Keep both QB’s… yeah right….
Bottom line, we cannot trade either guys until the season is complete.
“All I am is along for the ride.” – Me
Vick's contract's up after this year.
It’d be difficult to trade him. We’d have to extend him first.
Brent Celek is my boy
R.I.P. JJ (7/28/09)
by Carolina Iggle on Sep 30, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone really put much stock in . . .
In the ridiculous comment by Heckert that Kolb would have fetched “2 1s” this offseason. If that was the case, I am willing to bet the Eagles would have moved him and not McNabb.
The Whitehurst deal is a pretty good benchmark although all bets are off with the upcoming potential lockout.
I dont think Reid can win over the long haul without a mobile QB... Trade Kolb pick up Pryor or that fast bastard from
Michigan…
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
"I'm trading Kolb to Buffalo for Cribbs"- the brilliant Trade Kolb
"Please notice the difference and proceed to suck your own tiny ass cock. Secondly, A simulator shows how things COULD go, not WOULD.. Once again bend in half and do the deed.." From me.. To CNCITINFO.
he's a sophmore
"I Think I'm Pretty Nasty" - Jason Peters
by eaglesbabyy on Sep 29, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
denard Robinson
Is definitely a sophomore
by flyeaglesfly10 on Sep 29, 2010 10:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
he's had a year in College, we can get him now...
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
"I'm trading Kolb to Buffalo for Cribbs"- the brilliant Trade Kolb
"Please notice the difference and proceed to suck your own tiny ass cock. Secondly, A simulator shows how things COULD go, not WOULD.. Once again bend in half and do the deed.." From me.. To CNCITINFO.
no, it's three years from hs graduation
and he’s a sophomore, not eligible
That's great Bobby, but we don't have Dance Dance Revolution, so... you're dumb.
by alcatraz0109 on Sep 29, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL Reid can't win w/o a moblie QB?!?!?!?
Then why the hell did he trade a first rounder to move up in the second round to draft Kolb??!?!?!
by CrazyBoutTheGreen on Sep 30, 2010 6:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Because Kolb is mobile...
just not at the “Holy Cow!” level that McNabb and Vick were at in their prime/now
Mobile by NFL terms is different that Mobile in College terms...
Reid cannot win without a guy who can run atleast a 4.5 and that’s pushing it.
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
"I'm trading Kolb to Buffalo for Cribbs"- the brilliant Trade Kolb
"Please notice the difference and proceed to suck your own tiny ass cock. Secondly, A simulator shows how things COULD go, not WOULD.. Once again bend in half and do the deed.." From me.. To CNCITINFO.
2 NUM 1 PICKS
and get luck or matlett or pryor
okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider
Luck or mallet. Maybe Jake lockers stock will drop enough and we can steal him. Last year he might have been 2nd WB taken and not hearing much This year
by flyeaglesfly10 on Sep 29, 2010 10:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I LIKE luck
okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider
Pryor or bust lol.
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
"I'm trading Kolb to Buffalo for Cribbs"- the brilliant Trade Kolb
"Please notice the difference and proceed to suck your own tiny ass cock. Secondly, A simulator shows how things COULD go, not WOULD.. Once again bend in half and do the deed.." From me.. To CNCITINFO.
Does anyone remember...
the great Troy Smith that was the talk of Ohio State?? Anyone remember him? Pryor is the Troy Smith Jr.
by BirdsFanintheDesert on Sep 30, 2010 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Pryor has a cannon right???
Pryor is inaccurate right???
Vick has a cannon right?
Vick was inaccurate right?
We’ve proven that we can teach a man accuracy and pocket presence… we’ve done it once we’ll do it again.
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
"I'm trading Kolb to Buffalo for Cribbs"- the brilliant Trade Kolb
"Please notice the difference and proceed to suck your own tiny ass cock. Secondly, A simulator shows how things COULD go, not WOULD.. Once again bend in half and do the deed.." From me.. To CNCITINFO.
or a 1 AND A 3
okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider
QB’s in general are valued higher than than other positions. This past off-season the Eagles were asking for 2 firsts, but that was mostly a pipe-dream. He was drafted as the #36 overall pick & that’s what I would ideally want for him. However, he’s now lost almost 4years though riding the bench, so any draft pick in the 2nd round would definitely be acceptable. Or a package of picks. He will not be traded during the season, especially if Vick is still taking vicious hits every week. Kolb’s value will rise this coming off-season around draft time; teams that don’t see a QB in the draft they like could be willing to part with a 2nd round pick for a Kolb.
If they deal Kolb
then we’re in trouble. If the front office has lost that much faith in him in just a few months then we could be in a tough situation. If there was some type of a deal with Vick that was put in place to ensure he stays with the team at least another few years then I think that would be the way to go. Then, groom one of the QBs from this class. Locker, Luck, Ponder, Mallet. As long as the draft pick in compensation was high enough to snag the one the FO targets (and they would have to target one of those guys) then that would be a fair plan. But for them to cut bait now would severly rattle the confidence of fans, get the national media jumping on them and so forth. This would be Matt Leinart 2.
It turns out I overestimated my apathy, but not enough to matter.
LMAO! We have retarded fans!
I never saw a QB play so GREAT and fans still want him on the bench..!!!!
I came to the conclusion that we have retarded fans!
People are saying that Vick has to win the superbowl because if not Kolb will start next year.. WTF???
But Kolb has a free pass to completely have a losing season because we need to see what he MIGHT can be.. ?? Retarded!!!
We have the hottest QB in the league right now and all people talk about is how we can trade him.. I hope Vick wins the Super Bowl and then leaves Philly and wins another super bowl for whatever team he goes to..
I don’t understand how people think kolb is worth 1 first rounder, and even worse some people are saying he is worth 2 FIRST ROUNDERS???? Are you RETARDED? Mcnabb wasn’t even worth that.. Who in their right minds would make that deal for Kolb??
No one in the world believes Kolb is even good enough to be a starter except for his family a few eagles fans who probably just dont want Vick on the team..
If Vick messed up Kolbs flow.. How is it that Kolb played most of the snaps.. But after VIck played a full half he completely dominated..
Kolb was messing up Vicks flow… and FYI.. I will be pointing Vick to these forums…
I probably shouldn't waste time replying to this, but...
I don’t understand how people think kolb is worth 1 first rounder, and even worse some people are saying he is worth 2 FIRST ROUNDERS????
Heckert originally said he’d give 2 first rounders, this is not something made up by fans, nor believed by most. If you were really a fan you would know this. Most people would probably acknowledge (and the main post verifies) that this is unrealistically high, especially now.
People are saying that Vick has to win the superbowl because if not Kolb will start next year.. WTF???
Unless he signs an extension, Vick is at the end of his contract this year, and Kolb is not. It’s that simple.
We have the hottest QB in the league right now and all people talk about is how we can trade him
you do realize that this post is about Kolb‘s trade value, right? I know Vick’s been mentioned by a few people, but that’s hardly “all people talk about”. Why are you trying to make it seem like everyone here hates Vick except for you? That’s just not the case. The entire basis of this post is about exploring the hypothetical scenario of trading his only real alternative!
and FYI.. I will be pointing Vick to these forums…
wow… just, wow…
I actually think he does have a point, except for the “pointing Vick to these forums” part of course. There are an awful lot of people who want Vick gone and Kolb to start, in spite of the evidence that’s being put in front of our face. But it’s not exactly new that people will ignore very clear and consistent evidence and go with what the already thought. Just ask people about their political opinions/beliefs sometime.
I too had high hopes for Kolb. However, if Vick REALLY has learned how to play QB finally, then we’ve struck absolute gold. There’s never been a guy with more natural talent, and he’s only 30 which might be old for a RB, but sure isn’t for a QB. So no matter how much potential Kolb may or may not have, it’s not anywhere near the ceiling Vick has.
I would never have imagined myself saying something like this before the season started. I was never much of a Vick fan in ATL. I don’t like 77 qb ratings no matter how much they run. But, I can’t ignore the fact that he’s got a 110 QB rating through the first two, and it’s not just garbage stats, the guy is pasting eye and smell test as well, and winning us games. I’d like to see him do it against a good D, and I’d like to see him do it a few more times, but, I’m very close to completely jumping on board.
I just don’t buy that the majority of fans still want Vick gone and are clamoring to have Kolb put in right now. I think most fans are ready to see where Vick will take us and have moved on from Vick vs Kolb. Sure there where a few people who still want Vick traded, but the main point of the whole post was exploring what Kolb’s trade value would be. Call me crazy, but talking about trading Kolb sound a lot like embracing Vick as a starter. I think most fans are like you (myself included), they had their hopes for Kolb (and still do), but for right now are excited to see where Vick will take us.
It just annoys me when people like “phillyisback” who came out in that past couple weeks act like they were the first ones to see Vick’s potential. Even though I too was not impressed with his actual play in ATL, everyone saw his potential. It was undeniable, he’s just now really using it. Like many, I’ve been watching him since VT a decade ago. I’m excited that he’s seemingly hit his potential as an Eagle, as I suspect most people here are, not just a select few.
The Eagles CANNOT trade Vick in the offseason
b/c he’s going to be a free agent!!
Some of you people make it very painful to read these blogs by not getting your facts straight….
by CrazyBoutTheGreen on Sep 30, 2010 6:31 AM EDT reply actions
lmao because the eagles can't just franchise him and trade him then
like the patriots did with Matt Cassel.
Some of you people (CrazyBoutTheGreen) make it very painful to read these blogs by not getting your facts straight….
"I Think I'm Pretty Nasty" - Jason Peters
If these Eagles win 10+ games this year
there is no shot in hell that either Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallet, or Jake Locker fall to them. Its just not going to happen…
by CrazyBoutTheGreen on Sep 30, 2010 6:34 AM EDT reply actions
And then we have to have cameras on them every two or three minutes for however many hours it finally takes for them to be picked. I still hate Brady Quinn for this, and it wasn’t even his fault!
You must be a Notre Dame fan
to include Brady Quinn as a top quaterback. He fell that far b/c he sucks and wouldn’t have been a first rounder if it wasn’t for the old Notre Dame tag.
by CrazyBoutTheGreen on Sep 30, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
You have quite the selective memory there sir
Brady Quinn was the second QB taken in the 2007 draft. The first was Jamarcus Russel. He was absolutely considered to be a early to mid first round pick by many, and was in fact selected in the first round, but way lower than many believed he would go, just like what happened to Arron Rodgers the year before, and happened Jimmy Clausson this year. I’m sure I could come up with more examples if I wanted to take the time. However I’m not sure you’re interested in hearing about what has actually happened based on your response.
Interestingly it looks like we may have gotten the best QB of that class, even after considering the benching. Kolb’s top competition for this honor would be Quinn, Trent Edwards, and Tyler Thigpenn. What a HORRIBLE year for QBs huh? At least so far.
I like Thigpenn...
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
"I'm trading Kolb to Buffalo for Cribbs"- the brilliant Trade Kolb
"Please notice the difference and proceed to suck your own tiny ass cock. Secondly, A simulator shows how things COULD go, not WOULD.. Once again bend in half and do the deed.." From me.. To CNCITINFO.
What about ponder?
THis draft is QB heavy. About the best time you could ask for if the Ealges are ready to cut bait with one QB.
It turns out I overestimated my apathy, but not enough to matter.
At this point
Kolbs value to the eagles is much more valuable than his trade value right now.
GIVE KOLB A CHANCE! GIVE KOLB A CHANCE!
by FlyEagles15 on Sep 30, 2010 11:40 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Agreed
With the caveat that Cleveland could potentially way overpay his current trade value and compensate the Eagles appropriately. Heckert <3’s Kolb.
Nope.
Key word being right now.
If Vick stays this good the whole year and the Birds keep him, Kolb is still more than a back-up in most people’s eyes, so dealing him and grabbing a project would be a viable strategy.
It turns out I overestimated my apathy, but not enough to matter.
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