With one rookie down, what are the odds of the other 2010 draftees cracking the 53-man roster?
by JimmyK on Aug 31, 2010 1:21 PM EDT
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PrintWith Charles Scott being shipped off to Arizona in return for rookie corner Jorrick Calvin, let's take a look at the odds of the remaining rookies to make the 53 man roster...
Brandon Graham, 1st round pick (13th overall) - Starting LDE. 100%.
Nate Allen, 2nd round pick (37th overall) - Starting FS. 100%.
Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, 3rd round pick (86th overall) - DTO is seeing time in nickle packages with the 1's. He's not going anywhere. 99%.
Trevard Lindley, 4th round pick (105th overall) - What a pleasant surprise this kid has been. He earned some time with the 1's as the nickle corner against Kansas City when Ellis Hobbs was out briefly and managed to intercept Matt Cassel. He also had an excellent camp. There are so many corners fighting for roster spots right now (Dimitri Patterson, Joselio Hanson, and even the CB turned FS turned CB turned FS, Macho Harris), that I can't give him the 100%, but he's close. I'm sure we'll get to see Trevard in extended playing time against the Jets. 99%.
Keenan Clayton, 4th round pick (121st overall) - Clayton has been a polarizing rookie this year. With an overload of linebackers vying for limited roster spots, some see him as a player that's very much on the bubble - I wonder what exactly those folks have been watching. All throughout camp, he was around the football, and that trend continued in the preseason games, as he had a really athletic sack in the Jags game, and a nice read/interception in the Bengals game. Clayton is a dynamic, fast player that has already shown he can be a playmaker. I'm sticking my neck out for you a little on this one Keenan, but... 90%.
Mike Kafka - 4th round pick (122nd overall) - He a project, and with Michael Vick's status with this team in doubt following the 2010 season, he could very well be the 2nd stringer next year. He certainly quelled some of my doubts last week with that game winning drive vs. the Chiefs, and the coaching staff loves him. 99%.
Clay Harbor - 4th round pick (125th overall) - He's currently the Eagles #2 TE, and his only real competition for that job could come from another team's cuts, and even then, he's proabably still likely to stick. 97%.
Ricky Sapp - 5th round (134th overall) - He was the Eagles' draft darling, but has disappointed thus far. Sapp has been all but invisible, and with his latest injury, Sapp's chances of making the 53 man are slim to none. Redshirt, anyone? 5%.
[Note by JimmyK, 08/31/10 1:57 PM EDT ] - It appears Sapp may be headed for surgery. Let's go ahead and downgrade him to 1%.
Riley Cooper - 5th round (159th overall) - The Na Brown Award front-runner is basically a lock at this point. Potential rookie year contributor in this offense? Yup. Good special teamer? Yup. Great potential? Indeed. Let's just go ahead and say it... 100%.
Charles Scott - 6th round (200th overall) - Traded. 0%. So let's handicap the player the Eagles received as compensation...
Jorrick Calvin, 6th round (201st overall) - If Jorrick Calvin makes the team, and somehow a chain of events occurred leading to a situation in which he started opposite Ellis Hobbs, we'd have a starting combo of Calvin and Hobbs. While the thought of that might be too difficult to pass up, the fact remains that the corner position is stacked with roster hopefuls. I'm not going to pretend I know anything about Calvin's game, but let's just say he has an uphill battle. 2%.
Jamar Chaney, 7th round (220th overall) - Very interesting one here, and another draft darling. When the Eagles traded Joe Mays, I felt that boded well for Chaney. He's versatile (can play all 3 LB spots), and the Eagles traded a 6 next year to get him. But his performances in the preseason haven't been good. He's been dominated in the run game, and although he has made a few tackles on kickoffs, he also has a special teams penalty to his credit (I believe for offsides, which in unacceptable). If the Eagles keep 7 linebackers, he'll have to beat out either Tracy White or Moise Fokou to stick. If they only keep six, he'll have to beat out both of them. True bubble player here - He's fading, but I suspect he'll get a ton of work against the Jets. 35%.
Jeff Owens, 7th round (243rd overall) - Pretty simple one here - It's Owens vs Antonio Dixon, and I'd say they're about neck and neck. If the Eagles truly believe that both Owens and Dixon are about even, I would have to imagine they'll give the nod to Owens, but there's also the slim possibility the Eagles find their 4th DT elsewhere. 45%.
Kurt Coleman, 7th round (244th overall) - Coleman is probably the Na Brown runner-up at this point behind Riley Cooper. Great camp, good preseason. Still, there are battles at safety. 96%.
And a bonus...
Austin Howard, UFA - He's the most likely of the undrafted free agents to make the roster, and has clearly outperformed King Dunlap both in camp, and in the preseason. I think he sticks. 67%.
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Haha
Calvin and Hobbs is too good to pass up. If only we can get Ellis Hobbs to add an ‘e’ into his name. :(
Disagre on Dixon/Owens
It seems to me that the Eagles would never keep Owens over Dixon. Caplan has said repeatedly that the Eagles FO thinks Dixon could compete for playing time in the base defense, maybe pushing out Mike Patterson.
Honestly, I think Owens could be trade bait. He’s a promising young tackle, and I could see a team that needs help stopping the run trade for him. Maybe that’s how we get our veteran TE, if we get one at all.
Veritas Liberabit Te
Good call. That could definitely be a possibility. I personally think they’ll try to put Owens on the practice squad if said trade doesn’t happen though.
Why would a rejected 6th round D-III DE be so highly coveted? But KC made a player out of Studebaker
For a team with DT troubles like the Panthers, Tampa or ATL a guy who showed he was a gamer in camp and preseason would be solid target. He wouldn’t be highly coveted, but coveted nonetheless.
because he has potential, had a good preseason and training camp. If it wasn’t for the fact that Dixon played so well last year and that Laws had a resurgance he would have made the team. Also DT is a hard position to find.
Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?
She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...
I guess my point is that I’m not convinced there are many teams with noticeably worse backups DT’s than Laws and Dixon, to the point where they’ll offer a 53-man spot to a guy who wasn’t in camp with them. Not to say Owens isn’t good, but I’m not sure he’s THAT good that he wouldn’t stand at least a 50/50 shot of making it to the PS.
Guys like Andy Studebaker, Matt Ware, and Mike Gibson were taken off the PS. The Eagles took Dixon off of someone else’s PS. I say that there is a good chance that someone takes a shot at Owens.
Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?
She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...
It’s certainly possible, but the comment was, “He will never, ever make it to the PS.”
I think that’s wrong. There’s a very significant chance he makes it to the practice squad.
He would be picked up in a second
There is no chance they place him on PS unless they aren’t happy with him. You may believe that teams don’t have room on their 53 man roster for someone whose a long shot, but you’d be surprised at how many teams barely have 40 players capable of doing anything.
Not to mention the fact that, DT is one of the toughest positions and a lot of lacks depth and talent there.
He's shown enough.
Strong bull-rush, good instincts against the run, a forced fumble, some push on passing down despite the fact that we made him play 2-gap.
A team with a bad interior defense would definitely grab him.
Veritas Liberabit Te
the more I think about it, if Owens gets cut, I could see him ending up here in Chicago or in Indy, as well.
you guys........
are talking already as if he got cut, we dont know wats gonna happen and if he has a good showing against the Jets i think he has a great chance 2 make this team. I would take him over Dixon on potential alone. And if he does go 2 the PS he will be snatched up very quickly.
by goldenbird09 on Aug 31, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I totally agree with you.
I’m not waiting for the guy to get cut. just saying there’d be a market for him if he were
And he’s also not familiar with anyone’s playbook. I’m not saying a team won’t use a 53-man spot for him, but I am saying it’s far from a certainty.
He may make it to the PS, but will he make it through a full year? When DTs around the league get injured, he will likely be fairly high on the list of DTs available.
You do know.
That that Antonio Dixon was an undrafted DT last year who was coveted enough by the Eagles to pick him up on the way to the Redskins’ PS.
DAT ASS!!
Calvin and Hobbes!
When we face the Cowboys this year…it’s Calvinball rules. Anything goes.
the only rule is
you can never do the same thing you did last time.
So about 9 of 13...
… draft picks may make the team. That is a pretty high percentage.
And by my count, only two turned out to be true disappointments (Sapp and Scott).
I was about to post the same
who knows how good these kids will be, but any draft where you grab 2 starting players on a team returning from an 11-5 season, and to boot you get 5 or 6 guys who expect to contribute as second stringers and ST-ers, you know you’ve had a pretty good draft.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
Your meticulous calculations are spot on
With the exception to one….
I ran the numbers back through again and came up with 67.92845% for Austin Howard. Just a minor miscalculation on your part, but close enough.
In all seriousness, nice write-up. I needed a little change up of article topics to read.
In regards to a couple of the questionable rookies, I think Sapp gets IRed and Calvin, Chaney and Owens get put on the practice squad. The rest make it. That’s not a bad draft imo.
“He’s the most likely of the undrafted free agents to make the roster, and has clearly outperformed King Dunlap both in camp, and in the preseason.”
Didn’t the #2 blocking sled outperform Dunlap though in camp this year too?
I think the Eagles went into this draft with a dart board philosophy. As in, throw enough darts and you have to hit the bulls eye once or twice. If nine players stick that’s pretty good. I didn’t think there would even be nine roster openings going into this season and I certainly didn’t think you could fill them with low draft picks. Maybe the team wasn’t as good as I was giving them credit for.
I'm not drunk I'm just drinking.
I didn’t think there would even be nine roster openings going into this season and I certainly didn’t think you could fill them with low draft picks. Maybe the team wasn’t as good as I was giving them credit for.
Keep in mind all the vets that occupied roster spots that they jettisoned…
- Donovan McNabb
- Brian Westbrook
- Darren Howard
- Kevin Curtis
- Reggie Brown
- Alex Smith
- Jason Babin
- Chris Clemons
- Chris Gocong
- Sheldon Brown
- Jeremiah Trotter
- Will Witherspoon
- Sean Jones
- Shawn Andrews
Did I get them all?
after looking at that list
it’s a pretty good cut list as they were either a)underperforming b)marred by injuries or c) too old… I think Sheldon still had some left in him though
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
Sheldon
might be the one we miss the most of these. On the other hand last yeaer, according to DVOA, our biggest weakness in the passin game was against #2 WRs (#3 against the top WRs, #4 against “other” WR, #7 against TE, and #24 against #2 WRs). Maybe Sheldon was done last year more than we realized, and we might just see that this year. Remember Hobbs or whomever takes over that spot isn’t replacing Sheldon from 2 or 3 years ago, but from this year
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
He was just
hurt last year….the one year in his career he was pretty much banged up for most of the year and he still couldnt get beat out by the depth at CB so yes, i think they will miss him the most.
With the exception of McNabb, Westbrook, Sheldon, and Witherspoon all of these guys were dissapointments.
Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?
She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...
It depends on your perspective. He played well as MLB and WLB
Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?
She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...
Well, I don’t know anyone who would agree with you. Witherspoon had one good game for the Eagles in my opinion (his first), and many seem to feel the same way.
He wasn’t their worst LB, but he certainly wasn’t very good.
He signed October 20 last year. My question is whether an LB can come in that late and be consistently effective in another teams defensive scheme. I think it would be somewhat difficult, especially getting moved around.
I think in the cases of Sheldon Brown and Witherspoon, it’s arguable that they were disappointments.
Westbrook had a great career, but did not have a good 2009.
Just curious
How many of these guys are still unemployed?
I know Trot is. I’m pretty sure Howard and Curtis are.
What about Alex Smith and Will Witherspoon? I haven’t heard anything about those two all offseason.
witherspoon was signed by the Titans
Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?
She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...
Witherspoon signed with the Titans, I think. Darren Howard could still be useful, so I would have thought he landed somewhere too, but I don’t know.
Wow
Didn’t he have 6 or so sacks last year? And 10 the year before that? I guess it’s age that scared teams away.
"DTO"
This is the first place I’ve seen that, and I like either that or “DTN” much better than “Teo”. Too many bad memories go with those syllables.
Well done sir
Take the name off the back of the jersey's and reinvent football as a team sport.
"The way I figure it, if my heads gonna pop off it's gonna pop off anyways" - Ellis Hobbs on the possibility of his neck breaking.
by MightyJoeBanner on Aug 31, 2010 2:14 PM EDT reply actions
It’s a shame Sapp got injuried and had to have surgery, who knows if he would of been able to pull through if he was playing at 100% during preseason.
Regardless, I think we have a nice draft class. Nice idea to trade Scott for a CB but the chances of him making it are slim and Macho is back at Safety… so Im still a bit nervous about that… but at least we have this to look forward to…
<a href="http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D2m5AR7fja50&h=a49bf" target="new">
In life, as in a football game, the principle to follow is: Hit the line hard.
-Theodore Roosevelt
AGH i wish i could delete comments when i F up!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2m5AR7fja50
In life, as in a football game, the principle to follow is: Hit the line hard.
-Theodore Roosevelt
I cant beleive he had 6.5 sack last year. I don’t remember any of them
Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?
She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...
wrong reply.. oops
Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?
She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...
What about
Cornelius Ingram?
Macho Harris?
Quintin Demps?
Fenuki Tupou?
Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?
She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...
They aren't rookies.
I took this post to be just about our draft picks or UFA’s from this year, not a bubble player post.
JK......
do u think Owens wins a a back-up job with a strong showing against the Jets????
by goldenbird09 on Aug 31, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t know. They’ve been at camp since July, and they had a few mini camps earlier in the summer, so they’ve been evaluating for quite some time now. I’m sure the staff has a really good idea already who the 53 will be. The bubble guys always get a lot of work in the final preseason game, so a big performance never hurts, but it’ll only make or break the guys that are truly neck and neck.
While I perceive Dixon and Owens to be just that, the guys that count may have already come to a decision.
JimmyK NAIL ON THE HEAD AWARD!
I'm on board with the Eagles rebuilding plan.
I don't expect a winning season.
I don't expect a playoff appearance.
I do expect to see the best players emerge and improve week by week.
I do expect that this team at the end of the year shows that it can knock out teams trying to make the playoffs.
WE ARE REBUILDING
by Lombardi and Broad on Aug 31, 2010 3:24 PM EDT reply actions
Sapp just got IR'd
Eagles claim DE Pannel Egboh off waivers from Texans and place Ricky Sapp on IR (knee)
http://www.victoriaadvocate.com/news/2010/aug/31/bc-fbn-eagles-moves/?sports&nfl
Who's Been Eatin' Hummus?
She passed wind, excused herself, and sponged off in the corner as I sat dazed and confused...
he had a really athletic sack
Am I the only one who was immature enough to laugh at this? Probably.
DAT ASS!!
To the Practice Squad they go
I know we love the Eagles draft picks (mostly) but every team takes players they like and hope to make the team. Studebaker was on the Eagles PS until injuries allowed KC to find a roster spot for him. I expect the same with the Eagles cuts.
Does Sapp now get 100 because he will ‘make the team’ (paid salary by Eagles)? Since Cooper has the risk of playing he should not be 100.
Kafka is a lock. Harbor is a near lock with Ingram likely IR/PS.
Clayton might have moved ahead of Fokou but LB will be a tough decision.
Do not understand Scott trade because Colvin has no chance (is he better than Macho?). At least Scott could be the PS FB/RB and maybe contribute later.
I am less convinced than everyone about Coleman, I guess because I value the experience of Demps and Harris. However, he is the SS of next season so Eagles better keep him.
Owens seems like PS until injuries cause him to get picked up. Dixon is better and Laws showed up so far. Owens is a nice insurance policy.
Chaney I want to love, especially since Gaither is gone next season and Eagles need a backup MLB. Chaney could be taken as a special teams maven (Eagles took Togafau guy one season) when cut but ILBs have little value throughout the league and he was still a 7thRd pick.
I think the final roster spot is between Macho and Chaney and goes to Harris.
PS guess: Ingram, Chaney, Owens, Calvin, Hall, Tupou, Reynolds, and some RB.
Speaking of Togafau
I thought he was working the sheet metal factory with Curtis Enis. But damnit if I didn’t see him playing for Arizona against the Bears last Saturday
by DLawrence55 on Aug 31, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Does Sapp now get 100 because he will ‘make the team’ (paid salary by Eagles)? Since Cooper has the risk of playing he should not be 100.
No, he will not be on the 53-man roster. He will be on injured reserve. There is a difference.
Do not understand Scott trade because Colvin has no chance (is he better than Macho?). At least Scott could be the PS FB/RB and maybe contribute later.
We wouldn’t have traded Scott if he had any chance to stick. At least Calvin provides another body at a position of need. I mean, we probably already have an answer for RB3 in either Buckley or Mallet so Scott is dead weight at this point.
I put a dollar in a change machine. Nothing changed.
by alcatraz0109 on Sep 1, 2010 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
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