Kevin Kolb fits "the 26-27-60 rule"
by JasonB on Jul 8, 2010 2:16 PM EDT
in Philadelphia Eagles News
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John Lopez of SI.com wrote an interesting article about "the 26-27-60 rule" which is supposed to predict QB success in the NFL. He explains.
Here is the gist of it: If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.
So does the fact that Kolb fits "the rule" give you any more confidence in his ability to be a franchise QB?
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Yes, it makes me feel better
As long as we recognize that the rule is probabilistic and not deterministic. I think it’s perfectly reasonable to look at past indicators of success and use them to try to predict the future. That’s probably the most scientific we can get.
C'mon, that's not fair
They ask questions about OT on the Wonderlic… how was he supposed to know how that works?
It does actually.
There is something to be said for intelligence, practice and efficiency. I’d be interested in a breakdown of all the QBs in the NFL (drafted or no) since the Wonderlic began that fit the 26-27-60 numbers and how they’ve done. He pulled some impressive names out of the hat, but surely there are more than that who fit the metric. Maybe some of the most stable backups fit the rule? Is there anyone who has fit the numbers but seriously busted? That would be interesting to see.
More QB wonderlic scores
This site has a pretty comprehensive list of QB wonderlic scores: http://www.unc.edu/~mirabile/Wonderlic.htm
I always enjoy discussions about the wonderlic and any type of intelligence or personality test for that matter. I understand that being intellectually brilliant is not the only nor even the main criteria for football success. If it were, a lot of us here would be in Canton by now.
by One.Cool.Customer on Jul 8, 2010 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
put a camera in front of him
and he will make vince young look like stephen hawking
Where one era ends, another begins
Fit the numbers and busted or didn't live up to expectations?
Yup.
Charlie Frye
Alex Smith (40 on the Wonderlic, by the way)
Rex Grossman
Kyle Boller
Byron Leftwich
Quincy Carter (30 on the Wonderlic—who knew?)
Cade McNown
Rick Mirer
And there are tons of exceptions to the rule
Dan Marino scored a 15 on the Wonderlic
Terry Bradshaw scored a 15
Randall Cunningham scored a 15
Jim Kelly scored a 15
This might serve as a “guideline,” but should by no means be called a “rule.”
A far better rule is the “36-24-36” rule bestowed unto us by our friends in the Commodores. She’s a brick house, indeed, Lionel.
...But if he pulls the rug on his quarterback, Reid must do it knowing that he let McNabb down more than McNabb ever let him down.
Phil Sheridan--Philadelphia Inquirer
I think the problem we run into regarding a subjective test like this (and the names that you included) is that we’re discussing the potiential of a qb. Even a good qb in a bad system fails in the nfl.
2010-11 Predictions:
Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.
Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith
Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks
11-5 finish.
by corn on the kolb on Jul 8, 2010 4:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
She's mighty, mighty
I agree. This seems like a decent rule of thumb, maybe something to separate two attractive prospects, but nothing one could actually use to pick your QB.
by Tracer Bullet on Jul 8, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Well that helps.
The article does little to dispel the rule, but it would seem it is simply a guideline indeed.
a word to the thick soul sistas
I wanna get wit cha.
2010-11 Predictions:
Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.
Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith
Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks
11-5 finish.
by corn on the kolb on Jul 8, 2010 5:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah.
A woman who is 5’9" would have to be more like 48-36-48 with Sir-Mix-A-Lot’s mathematics. I’m sticking with Lionel and the boys for this one.
...But if he pulls the rug on his quarterback, Reid must do it knowing that he let McNabb down more than McNabb ever let him down.
Phil Sheridan--Philadelphia Inquirer
though to be fair
all those exceptions to the rule came from a different time in the NFL when schemes weren’t as complex
Also a total sidenote since i just saw this before posting: Kendra Wilkinson
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sh_EXbuJnok#t=1m40s
Not the ones who had the numbers and didn't make it.
...But if he pulls the rug on his quarterback, Reid must do it knowing that he let McNabb down more than McNabb ever let him down.
Phil Sheridan--Philadelphia Inquirer
Are you only looking at wonderlic or did you go find out all the college starts and completion percentages as well?
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I found the starts and comp. percentages for all that had them listed.
I think the only one I didn’t find everything for was Frye
...But if he pulls the rug on his quarterback, Reid must do it knowing that he let McNabb down more than McNabb ever let him down.
Phil Sheridan--Philadelphia Inquirer
mcnabb got a 14? lololol
I got a 26 and feel like a dummy :) If I could fucking remember my math I llearned in HS i would’ve done better
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
lmaooooooooooo
wat was the story with Vince Young ? Didnt he get like a 5 or sumtin????/ idk maybe thats 2 low but i remember his was like the lowest i ever heard.
yea it was either a 2 or a 6
either way you have to be as smart as a god damn rock to score that low
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/draft/2006-03-01-young-wonderlic_x.htm
...But if he pulls the rug on his quarterback, Reid must do it knowing that he let McNabb down more than McNabb ever let him down.
Phil Sheridan--Philadelphia Inquirer
so i see people already beat me to the vince young joke
as always lol
Where one era ends, another begins
hell yeah
it makes me feel better… and after reading last night that nfl.com has us rated as the #3 fantasy defense, this is getting exciting. maybe it’ll be nice to go into a season flying under the radar for once.
"Don't Give Up... Don't Ever Give Up!" - Jim Valvano
(unless it's terminal)
think its more due
To turnovers from asante and nfl.com’s belief that our defense will be on the field frequently due to a dysfunctional offense.
2010-11 Predictions:
Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.
Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith
Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks
11-5 finish.
by corn on the kolb on Jul 8, 2010 10:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
There is no question about the guy for me. He will light it up this year and sign a huge contract with the Eagles. Pro-Bowl bound this year. Playoffs possibly with a wild card. If we can win at least one game each in the NFC east I will be happy.
Phillies in the World Series, Flyers in the Stanley Cup, now all we need is the Philadelphia Eagles in the Superbowl. Arlington, Texas 2011...
by STRAIGHTOYOURFACE on Jul 8, 2010 3:17 PM EDT reply actions
How hard is it to be to get a good score on wonderloc
I mean it cant be that hard, anything less than a 35 seems like a joke to me.
by Desean Da Man on Jul 8, 2010 3:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Anyone Know how the real wonderlic realy is
I kno madden does a similar version of the wonderlic on the superstar version.
by Desean Da Man on Jul 8, 2010 3:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
not as difficult as you'd think
but not easy, either.
remember though
some of these kids shouldn’t have ever gotten into college. They got in because, simply, they were athletic freaks and the school wanted to support their sports program.
But its pretty adequate to me.. if an athlete can’t do that, how can they diagnose a play correctly?
I mean the wonderlic asks “If a = b, and b = c, does a = c”? This is pretty basic logic rhythms that any defensive player HAS to be able to deduce. A quarterback has to do this on each read.
2010-11 Predictions:
Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.
Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith
Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks
11-5 finish.
by corn on the kolb on Jul 8, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
i did a wonderlic for a psych class
there are many tests that are tailored to different professions, but the questions deal mostly with problem solving since they are easy enough but time consuming
Where one era ends, another begins
Wow i looked at set 1
Those questions were a joke. And if u are able to use a calculator getting less than a 40 is inexcusable. Wasnt there only one 40+ this year? Yesh! Im 16 and i could beat these 21-23 years on this. Just wow…
by Desean Da Man on Jul 9, 2010 1:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
True That!!!
"... You play to win the game. Hello? You play to win the game. You don't play it to just play it. That's the great thing about sports: you play to win..."
It all depends on how the rule came about
If you simply look at the historical data, group the good quarterbacks together, and then make a rule that fits a subset of them, you can’t ever be sure of the rule’s predictive power. It’s like saying that every NFL quarterback who attended Isidor Newman High School will win the Super Bowl, since the Mannings went there.
The real way to do this is to formulate the “rule” using only a small subset of all quarterbacks, and then, AFTER you have figured out the “rule,” test to see if it holds up by predicting the success of quarterbacks not in the original sample. We have no clue how this thing was formulated, but it makes a HUGE difference statistically.
So, long story short… it doesn’t make me feel much better about Kolb, but it doesn’t hurt.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kyle Orton?
Very different formula…kinda weird. good article except for bad players as examples, but Mike Vick was very good before all the incidents (granted he is a different type of quarterback). Daunte Culpepper ran laps around both of them in every aspect of the game.
Ryan T.
Exit349 Eagles writer
I would not go that far. Culpepper certainly was a better passer, but he did have the benefit of some pretty decent WR corps.
I wonder how inflated Vick’s stats would be if he had Moss to chuck it up to for a full season. And along that same line, what would Culpepper’s stats have been if he was throwing to Dez White and Brian Finneran instead of Carter and Moss.
by captain nodar on Jul 8, 2010 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Bah
You said Fitzpatrick, not Vick, my bad.
by captain nodar on Jul 8, 2010 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
basically what i said
Just because a qb fit into the mold and didn’t succeed in the nfl doesn’t mean they were a bad qb. A good qb on a bad team with no leadership can still lead to failure.
2010-11 Predictions:
Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.
Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith
Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks
11-5 finish.
by corn on the kolb on Jul 8, 2010 10:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That scout was on WIP today and he thinks the division is going to go like this:
1st: Eagles
2nd: Redskins
3rd: Cowboys
4th: Giants
I was shocked to hear him have the Cowboys that low since everybody has them winning them the division although I don’t think they’re a lock like everybody else and I was a little surprised to see him have the Redskins that high
In 2000 Bill Bellichick had to chose between Tom Brady and Tim Rattay
Tom Brady:
33-25-62.
Tim Rattay
27-30-63
Tom Brady didn’t fit the 26-27-60 rule but Tim Rattay did
still kicking themselves to this day....
coulda had Rattay
^Nights Of Cabiria
by RadioheadbeatlesEagles on Jul 8, 2010 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
doesnt mean the results would be any different
Would tim rattay have had a simular career playing for NE? Would tom brady had ever seen the field elsewhere?
Systems can define qbs too. For example, reid has been successful with other qbs too when donovan has been out.
Matt cassel is one who comes to mind. Great in NE, terribad in KC.
2010-11 Predictions:
Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.
Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith
Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks
11-5 finish.
by corn on the kolb on Jul 8, 2010 10:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Kolb will be a beast.
Maybe not at first, but he’ll be used to back up the 26-27-60 rule in no more than 3 years.
The Thrilla, the Killa, the Vanilla Gorilla; Get well Joel Przybilla!
Go Eagles, Blazers, Oregon and Padres.
i was always a "c" student but
i got 40 on the test which means some of these guys are complete idiots… then again i can’t walk and chew gum at the same time… i’m not sure what the test can predict other than how quickly (or well) they can learn a playbook… by the way… i think mcnabb cheated… there’s no way he could have gotten a 14!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Elmo the faithful fan on Jul 9, 2010 1:07 PM EDT reply actions
I feel like our offense could make any QB look good
They are used to catching balls low and we have so many skill position potential stars. Its our defense thats the question. But everyone knows Kolb is the good ol’ boy, the stereotypical Texas football tough guy. I’m cant wait to see him play!……also glad the award I got for a picture I sent in to the eagles site got me a Kolb autographed replica full size helmet :-)
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