The Fantasy Outlook continues with my rankings of the top 30 WR's. I was originally going to do a top 50 WR list but realized, "Holy shit! I am going to be facing some of these people in at least one BGN fantasy league." I can't give away all my ways of thinking so I figured a top 30 list gives you a nice outlook for the 3 starting spots required in a basic 10 franchise fantasy league. The point system I used is as follows:
1 reception equals 1 point, 10 receiving yards equals 1 point, 1 TD equals 6 points
Lets get to it.
1. Andre Johnson, Hou: Is there really any other choice? Johnson is by far the most dominant WR in the league, playing on a pass friendly team, built around him, with a top 5 QB chucking him the ball. His only downside is he doesn't hit double digits in TD's. If he ever starts doing that, make him your number 1 pick.
Projected Stats: 103 receptions 1512 receiving yards 10 TD
2. Reggie Wayne, Ind: Wayne is the top option of the best QB in the league. He consistently produces and 2010 should not be any different. Another stellar year is waiting to happen so all you have to do is say his name.
Projected Stats: 96 receptions 1305 receiving yards 9 TD
3. Randy Moss, NE: It doesn't seem to matter how much older he gets, he still plays at a high level. He isn't a big reception guy but he is a huge TD scoring machine. He is the top option in the vaunted New England passing attack and even though teams know that, all they can do is watch and hope for a lucky break.
Projected Stats: 82 receptions 1227 receiving yards 11 TD
4. Larry Fitzgerald, Ari: Having Fitzy this low really shows how much I think of the passing game in Arizona this year with Leinart at the helm. Fitzy lost his major complement in Boldin and even with Breaston or Doucet as capable receivers, neither are on the level of Boldin. Fitzgerald will still put up excellent numbers.
Projected Stats: 89 receptions 1190 receiving yards 11 TD
5. Brandon Marshall, Mia: This is a pretty big leap of faith on my part but one I am willing to take. I believe Henne is ready for a break out year and Marshall will be the main beneficiary of it. He has logged over a 100 receptions 3 years in a row and now plays with a better QB then last year and a more established running game. Marshall will excel in his new surroundings so you might as well reap the benefits of that production.
Projected Stats: 95 receptions 1195 receiving yards 9 TD
6. Roddy White, Atl: Matt Ryan throwing to him has really given White a chance to show how legit of a receiver he is. He is consistent and I think he maintains the status quo he has set for himself over the past 3 years.
Projected Stats: 86 receptions 1255 receving yards 9 TD
7. DeSean Jackson, Phi: He is simply a playmaker. He is a threat to score every time he touches the ball and all his stats with the exception of average yards per catch should increase playing with a more accurate QB. Also for those who believe in the year 3 rule, it's Jackson's.
Projected Stats: 72 receptions 1213 receiving yards 10 TD
8. Miles Austin, Dal: I pray everyday that I am wrong about this selection but I can't go against the grain. He was fantastic last year and returns as the number 1 option. Grab him if he is available but root against him every chance you get.
Projected Stats: 80 receptions 1227 receiving yards 8 TD
9. Steve Smith, NYG: See how dangerous the receiver's are in the NFC East? Hakeem Nicks has the higher upside but in a PPR league I want the 100 catch man. I don't expect the Giants to go too far away from their pass heavy attack from last year and so he gets the nod in this position.
Projected Stats: 97 receptions 1155 receving yards 7 TD
10. Marques Colston, NO: The number one receiver in the number one pass offense in the league. He is an injury risk but comes to play when he is on the field. Steady and consistent, that is what make a great WR1 for your fantasy team.
Projected Stats: 73 receptions 1105 receiving yards 9 TD
11. Sidney Rice, Min: This is of course dependent on the return of Brett Favre. The old man found a comfort zone with this guy last year and when he returns a growth for Rice is definately a possibility.
Projected Stats: 79 receptions 1228 receiving yards 8 TD
12. Anquan Boldin, Bal: Boldin might be the luckiest guy. He is escaping the potential meltdown in Arizona and going to a team that has a better starting QB and a better running game. Although he doesn't have Fitzgerald opposite of him he still has a very good WR to help take some pressure off him in Derrick Mason. I expect a huge season from Boldin, if he stays healthy.
Projected Stats: 82 receptions 1102 receving yards 8 TD
13. Calvin Johnson, Det: I know this seems almost blasphemous. Calvin Johnson has all the tools to be the best wide receiver in the league and although I agree whole heartedly with this statement, this isn't about potential this is about production. Between a second year QB, nagging injuries, and well just playing for Detroit, 13 is the best I can rank him. Look for an increase in production, regardless, as Stafford continues to grow.
Projected Stats: 76 receptions 1197 receiving yards 7 TD
14. Greg Jennings, GB: He seemed to start getting on the same page as Aaron Rodgers near the end of last season so I expect a marked improvement by Jennings. His TD total should rise considerably and his yards should as well.
Projected Stats: 74 receptions 1181 receving yards 7 TD
15. Chad Ochocinco, Cin: While not as dominant in the receiver landscape as he used to be, Ochocinco is still a fine receiver. Rumors have more passing coming from Cincy since Palmer is now more then a year removed from his elbow surgery. I am not buying that after seeing how good they performed being a run oriented team. Ochocinco should be in line for the same type of year as last year and as a number 2 fantasy WR that is a good year for you.
Projected Stats: 73 receptions 1043 receiving yards 7 TD
16. Vincent Jackson, SD: I orginally had Jackson ranked number 5 but his 3 game suspension nixed that plan. He was poised for a big year and when he returns he should still produce. His overall numbers won't look very impressive but at an estimated 15.5 points per game upon his return, it's enough to put him at the 16 spot.
Projected Stats: 60 receptions 995 receiving yards 7 TD
17. Hines Ward, Pit: The Ageless Wonder number 1. People have had Ward falling off for 5 years now and yet every year he produces wonderfully. Last year saw him catch 95 balls which is huge in a PPR league. The 4 game suspension of Rothliesberger hurts his initial value but he should still put together a solid overall year.
Projected Stats: 83 receptions 1014 receiving yards 6 TD
18. Steve Smith, Car: Even with terrible quarterback play last year, Smith still had a very respectable season. This year he has a brand new quarterback tossing him the rock in Matt Moore, but as seen through week 13-16 they had decent chemistry as Smith caught 19 balls for 378 yards and 3 TD's. With a whole training camp to work together at the very worst Smith should produce like 2009 which is perfect for your number 2 fantasy WR.
Projected Stats: 74 receptions 1124 receiving yards 7 TD
19. Dwayne Bowe, KC: Bowe is valuable according to your particular tastes. He is the number 1 wide receiver threat in KC, so if you think Cassel will do better he makes for a good pick. If you think Cassel is an overpaid, overhyped, clown then Bowe is probably not your cup of tea. Season to taste.
Projected Stats: 75 receptions 991 receiving yards 6 TD
20. Hakeem Nicks, NYG: Nicks was my pick to be the best wide receiver out of last years draft class and after his rookie season he hasn't done anything to sway me from my opinion. He is an explosive weapon with great hands and the potential to be the best WR on the Giants. If he stays healthy an all around improvement is in order.
Projected Stats: 61 receptions 961 yards 7 TD
Projected Stats: 54 receptions 901 receiving yards 6 TD
22. Michael Crabtree, SF: Crabtree came into the league late last year but showed a glimpse of his ability and why he held out for a larger contract. Although there are questions about Alex Smith's ability to produce at a consistent level, there are no questions about who should be the main beneficiary of any production Smith can come up with.
Projected Stats: 72 receptions 972 receiving yards 7 TD
23. Percy Harvin, Min: Harvin proved to be a multi-dimensional weapon for the Vikings last year.
If When Favre comes back his stock should continue to rise and improvement in all areas is a realistic outcome.
Projected Stats: 70 receptions 896 receiving yards 7 TD
24. Donald Driver, GB: The Ageless Wonder number 2. Driver plays with Rodgers and has just consistently put up 1000 yard seasons. His numbers are in-line with fantasy WR 2 numbers so getting him as a number 3 would be gravy.
Projected Stats: 65 receptions 1010 receiving yards 5 TD
25. Mike Sims-Walker, Jac: He is the number 1 receiver in Jacksonville but since passing is the third option there after running and running his numbers can only get so high. He will fit into your fantasy plans as a nice 3rd option but expecting anything other then that is wishful thinking.
Projected Stats: 60 receptions 910 receiving yards 6 TD
26. Jeremy Maclin, Phi: Maclin should build upon his initial success as a rookie and have some good value as a number 3 fantasy WR. The performance of Kolb is the biggest factor here and Maclin could easily drop over a thousand yards. I will temper my expectations though and be happy when he improves in all areas.
Projected Stats: 65 receptions 892 receiving yards 6 TD
27. Santana Moss, Was: He isn't as fast as he use to be but his deep speed is still impressive. He should be able to use McNabbs great arm strength and have himself a few big games. However the offense has a lot of question marks so expecting a return to anything of any real substance is a bit much.
Projected Stats: 56 receptions 883 receiving yards 6 TD
28. Mike Wallace, Pit: Wallace showed his big play ability last year and will benefit from the move of Santonio Holmes in the offseason. I expect Pittsburgh to revert back to a run first team but Wallace should still produce good enough numbers to be in the top 30 WR's.
Projected Stats: 57 receptions 962 receving yards 4 TD
29. Wes Welker, NE: I fully expect Welker to miss part of this season but when he returns it should be business as usual. Grabbing him late is great value for a PPR league because he snatches a ton of balls. He won't get you a ton of TD but his overall PPG after he returns could be in the range of 15. Grab him and stash him.
Projected Stats: 63 receptions 686 receiving yards 3 TD (over 10 games)
30. Derrick Mason, Bal: The Ageless Wonder number 3. People have been predicting the decline of Derrick Mason for the last 4 years. I'm sorry but I just don't see it. He has topped a 1000 yards in 3 straight years and his TD's increased last year. I do think his stats actually go down this year with Boldin playing on the other side but he should still have a place on your roster. Expect lower production but don't be suprised if he tops a 1000 yards yet again.
Projected Stats: 64 receptions 810 receving yards 4 TD
That's my predictions guys. Hope they help you in your run towards a fantasy championship.