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Hang on to that thing tighter, Shady

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As we all know, Donovan McNabb has the lowest interception rate in the history of the NFL, and although I'm personally very excited for the beginning of the Kevin Kolb era, I also think we're all expecting a spike in interceptions thrown, which has been discussed at length in the comment sections of this blog.

One thing that I don't think has been discussed yet, however, is that our other recently departed longtime Eagle great, Brian Westbrook, was also exceptional at not turning the ball over.  His career stats (not including kick/punt returns)...


Rushes Receptions Total touches Fumbles Fumble %
Brian Westbrook 1308 426 1734 8 0.46%

 

Westbrook's successor, LeSean McCoy, is far too careless with the way he carries the football, and that is an aspect of his game that needs to improve this offseason.  After the jump, we'll take a look at how Westbrook's excellence in ball security compares to some of the other active NFL running backs, and we'll look at some game film of LeSean McCoy's fumbles last season...

Star-divide

The following graph shows the active NFL running backs with a minimum of 900 career rushing attempts, in order from the the best to worst at securing the football.  (Does not include the playoffs or fumbles occurring on kick/punt returns)...


Rushes Receptions Total touches Fumbles Fumble %
Brian Westbrook 1308 426 1734 8 0.46%
Cedric Benson 935 63 998 7 0.70%
LaDainian Tomlinson 2880 530 3410 27 0.79%
Julius Jones 1220 133 1353 12 0.88%
Thomas Jones 2280 289 2569 24 0.93%
Ronnie Brown 928 151 1079 10 0.93%
Larry Johnson 1421 154 1575 15 0.95%
Fred Taylor 2491 288 2779 27 0.97%
Willis McGahee 1441 150 1591 17 1.07%
Clinton Portis 2176 242 2418 26 1.08%
Steven Jackson 1548 281 1829 20 1.09%
Willie Parker 1253 84 1337 17 1.27%
Marion Barber 929 163 1092 15 1.37%
Chester Taylor 1028 265 1293 18 1.39%
Frank Gore 1168 224 1392 22 1.58%
Ricky Williams 2164 310 2474 46 1.86%
Adrian Peterson 915 83 998 20 2.00%

 

As you can see, we've been spoiled by Brian Westbrook's ability to hang onto the football for years.  What the chart doesn't show, remarkably, is that 5 of Westbrook's 8 fumbles occurred on pass receptions, leaving just 3 on actual rushing attempts.  Westbrook's ball security throughout his career here was simply outstanding, and Eagles running backs coach Ted Williams has some work to do with McCoy.

McCoy's fumbles last year...


Not a single one of McCoy's fumbles last season were the result of a big hit.  On his fumbles against the Raiders and Bears, the defenders were able to simply punch the ball out of his hands.  On his fumble against the Saints (although technically it wasn't 'ruled' a fumble), the ball was easily stripped out by Jonathan Vilma

I really can't say it any better than what Cris Collinsworth said during the replay of Charles Tillman easily punching the ball out of McCoy's hands - "They didn't do that in college."  And Collinsworth is 100% right - The number of fumbles LeSean McCoy had in his 2 years at Pitt, you might ask?  None.  In college, when you're so much better and faster than pretty much everyone on the field, defenders are just hoping to just bring you down.  In the NFL, where everyone is a bona fide athlete, defenders are looking to make plays.

Love your talent, Shady, but you have to tighten it up.

Comment 56 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Wow

Never realized that we had the best ball carrier (and I use that term to mean literally capable of carrying a football without dropping it) in the NFL. Pretty… baller?

I have faith McCoy can turn it around. There’s plenty of examples of players who were once not so good at holding the football and then becoming magnets without losing any talent (the obvious case is Tiki Barber)

by Alon on Jun 4, 2010 10:11 AM EDT reply actions  

I’m shocked that Shady didn’t have 155 fumbles last year. Every time he carried the ball I was scared he carried it like a loaf of bread.

They call me The Professor.

by Whodie126 on Jun 4, 2010 10:39 AM EDT reply actions  

So true Whodie, I remember a couple of times he looked like a point guard ball faking left and driving right.

by cavortingEagle on Jun 4, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yea shady had me scarred a lot last year…can’t afford any heart attacks

by jjrome on Jun 4, 2010 12:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

pppft… I never had any worries! lol

"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel

by foos05 on Jun 4, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rate

Nice article, again. Thanks for doing the work on the stats.

I don’t disagree that he’s playing with fire by holding the ball out like that, but stats wise he’s not horrible. He falls between Taylor and McGahee. 155 rushes + 40 recs = 195. 2/195 = 1.03%.

I didn’t count the third fumble because your stats for the other guys don’t count those either.

If he can keep that rate, or improve it, he’ll be in the better half of NFL starters at not turning it over. I knew Westbrook was good, but damn. No wonder we always gave him the ball with 2 minutes left when we’re just slamming it into the line over and over again.

by jhavrk8 on Jun 4, 2010 10:43 AM EDT reply actions  

Nice Post

LeSean McCoy needs to hold onto the ball like he was Tom Rathman. I like to see him live up to all the hype coming out of college. Thats rushing for 1000+ yrds and maybe 500 receiving yrds. Tony Dorsett said of all the comparisons to him coming out of the U. of Pitt that McCoy was the best one.

McNabb is one of thee proficent passers in the league and will probaby retire with that record in tact. That is 0.46 % not 4.60 % for Brian Westbrook with at least 900 carries. That will be very hard to do again.

Let’s hope that Kevin Kolb will show us how much of an accurate passer he is. All I hear is that hes going to throw more interceptions then touchdowns. I like to see more like 30 tds and 4 ints.

Phillies in the World Series, Flyers in the Stanley Cup, now all we need is the Philadelphia Eagles in the Superbowl. Arlington, Texas 2011...

by STRAIGHTOYOURFACE on Jun 4, 2010 10:45 AM EDT reply actions  

Wow

That “fumble” against the Saints was flat-out ugly. Could he extend the ball any farther away from his body?

Two things Shady needs to work on… Tucking the ball away. And just taking the 3 or 4 yards when you can get ’em, rather than dancing behind the LOS.

Nice breakdown, Jimmy.

by Smitty2K3 on Jun 4, 2010 10:58 AM EDT reply actions  

he’s tryna pull some adrian peterson shit

I'M GONNA TRIP BALLS!!! -Frank Reynolds

by Mapost1 on Jun 4, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's all nice and dandy.....

And hopefully Kolb and Shady’s turnovers don’t cost us many games……but even with having the best possession QB& RB before, we also had a QB that almost never took risks, and settled for 3&outs, punts/FG way too many times (which makes it worst when you have an inconsistent punter like Rocca or inconsistent special team) and no established running game (ie not moving the chains).

The new Eagles offense may end up giving up more turnovers, but the variety of different looks, a more accruate/risk taking better decision maker consistent QB (hopeful), a more established running game (just do it stuborn Big Red), and let’s face it, the best wide receiver/TE corp the Eagles ever had….. I like our chances more and more :-)

KOLB is a natural born leader - something the Eagles haven't had on offense in a long long time. Prediction, we win a SB in the next 3 years.

by BWestFactor on Jun 4, 2010 11:09 AM EDT reply actions  

Wow, I knew Westbrook was good, but I didn't realize he was tops.

McCoy needs to fix this for sure. It may not have happened a lot last year, but he will be the fulltime starter now and the defenders will watch tape and salivate at how he carries the ball. Let’s hope he gets it taken care of. We were spoiled by McNabb and Westbrook. There will definitely be more turnovers this year than we are accustomed too.

by NOLACuse on Jun 4, 2010 11:10 AM EDT reply actions  

good article

But I think you missed one important stat.

Where does mcnabb rate all time in terms of 3-and-outs? That’s pretty much the same as throwing a pick on a streak route.

We all expect kolb to throw more picks, and to be as good as mcnabb or better. How is this possible? Kolb’s accuracy will sustain drives where mcnabbs dirtballs ended them in a psuedo-turnover.

2010-11 Predictions:

Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.

Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith

Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks

11-5 finish.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 4, 2010 11:19 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Im confused by your signature, are those your actual predictions or are you being sarcastic? I only ask because you have Maclin spelled with a Y

"I hate listening to people's dreams. It is like flipping through a stack of photographs. If I'm not in any of them and nobody is having sex, I just don't care. "

by midnitegreen on Jun 4, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

also

there’s no way Maclin has more catches than Austin, maybe Smith, but only because Nicks will also get more than him as he moves to the #2 target for Eli.

I know we’re moving into a new-look offense, but the reality is that we simply spread the ball around a lot. It’s a major part of our offensive philosophy. Romo will throw to Austin 15 times/games, whereas, even when TO was here, I don’t think he ever had more than 8 receptions/game

"EFF YOU, WE'RE WINNING ANYWAY!!!!!!" (Bye, Dawk)

by jalarsen1 on Jun 4, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

i'm expecting

The league to have figured austin out enough that they don’t even force feed him enough. I’m also expecting dez to be a factor, plus more swing passes into their offense.

2010-11 Predictions:

Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.

Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith

Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks

11-5 finish.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 5, 2010 12:16 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

i'm serious

But I give the nod to the famed maclyn post

2010-11 Predictions:

Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.

Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith

Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks

11-5 finish.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 5, 2010 12:15 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I’m not sure how those stats really tie into the topic of this post

by eagleyosh on Jun 4, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

they do

The topic is how we enjoyed a turnover free era of football, and we didn’t even know it. Sorry if I came away with a different point of view. 3-and-outs are turnovers. They can kill momentum and tire a defense.

2010-11 Predictions:

Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.

Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith

Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks

11-5 finish.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 5, 2010 12:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I see what you mean…I looked at the post mostly from the “lesean needs to hold the ball better” than looking at ball security of our offense over the past decade (which I guess it also does)

by eagleyosh on Jun 5, 2010 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dont forget

All the passes that were thrown into the dirt (especially on opening drives). If you counted like 2% of those paesses in the dirt as int’s McNabbs ratio would be very different.

Phillies in the World Series, Flyers in the Stanley Cup, now all we need is the Philadelphia Eagles in the Superbowl. Arlington, Texas 2011...

by STRAIGHTOYOURFACE on Jun 4, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yea, but that would be stupid to do.

Because they aren’t turnovers. And therefore not as bad. Frustrating, yes. As bad as an INT, no.

by NOLACuse on Jun 4, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes, they are nearly as bad.

3 and out gains no momentum, puts your tired defense out on a short field.

Its okay occassionally, but moving the sticks or not moving the sticks are the only options.

2010-11 Predictions:

Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.

Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith

Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks

11-5 finish.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 5, 2010 12:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Dude

An INT gives the OTHER team momentum, and usually amazing field position. At least with a 3 and out you get to punt. INTs are not even comparable, way worse.

by BarbarosaNo on Jun 5, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

The field position difference between the two is a big factor here.

INTs usually end in excellent field position for the opposing team while 3 and outs tend not to. Or shouldn’t, if the team has a decent punter. Rocca’s inability to consistently pin opponents shouldn’t make us think interceptions are on the same level as 3 and outs. If you really think they are so close together, I would direct you to last years Chicago Bears. Not a whole lot of positive there when Cutler was throwing those picks. Those games tended to be losses. Favre’s INT at the end of the NFC champ game? I think a 4th down would have been preferable there. I don’t think I’ve ever thought to myself “I’m glad the QB threw an interception there instead of an incomplete pass.”

I understand what you’re saying, but I will only accept an increase in interceptions if there is a huuuge jump in 3rd down efficiency. If the 3rd down % jump is only minimal, but the INT jump is noticeable, that’s a negative swing from our norm until now and it won’t benefit the team in any way.

by NOLACuse on Jun 5, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any coach would chose a incompletion any day over an int.

Heck most would take a 3 to 1 ratio no problem.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Jun 7, 2010 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

someone got me

Ty, you nailed it.

2010-11 Predictions:

Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.

Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith

Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks

11-5 finish.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 5, 2010 12:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I don't think he missed the stat at all. The article isn't even about QB's, so that stat would be irrelevant.

The McNabb mention was merely a setup for talking about ball security by another longtime Eagle who is now gone.

by NOLACuse on Jun 4, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

got something different out of it

That it was about an era of very low turnover football and that we’re going to be unfairly outraged at being average in the league.

2010-11 Predictions:

Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.

Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith

Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks

11-5 finish.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 5, 2010 12:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

My thoughts exactly...

Interesting facts, and for sure Shady needs to get better at holding the ball….but let’s face it, out with the old, in with the new

KOLB is a natural born leader - something the Eagles haven't had on offense in a long long time. Prediction, we win a SB in the next 3 years.

by BWestFactor on Jun 4, 2010 11:23 AM EDT reply actions  

That one against the bears is the most horrifying!

It seemed like in college they just said, when in traffic, use two hands – but never showed him how to cover the ball with both

by T-rade on Jun 4, 2010 11:24 AM EDT reply actions  

It was bad

But Tillman is a pretty great corner who is well known for forcing turnovers.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Jun 7, 2010 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just noticed something – Adrian Peterson (2.0% fumble rate) is pretty much just as likely to fumble every time he touches the ball as Donovan McNabb (2.1% INT rate) is to throw an interception every time he passes. That’s embarrassing.

Formerly Bye, Dawk :(

by JimmyK on Jun 4, 2010 11:54 AM EDT reply actions  

that is bad

2010-11 Predictions:

Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.

Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith

Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks

11-5 finish.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 5, 2010 12:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

key thing i noticed. shady had zero fumbles in college…
and we are all happy how that guy from LSU had zero fumbles

"Why do you step onto the field...? I don't believe in pressure. I don't believe in what may be said on the outside. Why do I step out onto the field? To Prove That I Am The Best!"
-Donovan McNabb

by anuj on Jun 4, 2010 12:03 PM EDT reply actions  

"that guy from LSU"

 = one of the best steals of the draft and the next best thing in Eagles Land :-)

KOLB is a natural born leader - something the Eagles haven't had on offense in a long long time. Prediction, we win a SB in the next 3 years.

by BWestFactor on Jun 4, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought Ilaoa was a Hawaii guy.

Anyway, anuj is referring to Charles Scott.

Formerly Bye, Dawk :(

by JimmyK on Jun 4, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

he is

but people thought Ilaoa was going to be a beast back in 07’.

by rajav on Jun 4, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah thats true. I was one of them. lol. When you have a RB that was that huge but also had good mobility, it just seemed like he would be an excellent compliment to Westbrook. Oh well.

" If I am using this account, it is because yahoo is being whorish and not letting me sign in through that account. It is I, Talon Talent."

by krucifix on Jun 5, 2010 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

It’s probably more impressive for Scott, since his power running style would in theory carry a higher risk for fumbles, as would playing in a conference with better defenses.

nyuk nyuk nyuk

by alcatraz0109 on Jun 4, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeh man C.Scott is a beast. I really hope they give him enough reps a chance to develop. He could be the next best thing since sliced bread…hahaha had to say it….like really who gives a phuck about sliced bread lol

However we should be excited about this prospect :-)

KOLB is a natural born leader - something the Eagles haven't had on offense in a long long time. Prediction, we win a SB in the next 3 years.

by BWestFactor on Jun 4, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's not "theory" - That's FACT

Also factor in the fact that while McCoy’s NCAA statistics were more impressive as his team’s featured back – he only spent 2 years playing in college… 2 years where he was “the guy”. Not only did he have more time to improve through practice – Scott had stiff competition for playing time throughout his 4 years at LSU. Ball security was a definite emphasis which factored directly to who got to got to step on the field on game day. For his first 2 years, Scott played behind Jacob Hester (another 0 fumble guy) – not a bad role model.

It's an ankle bracelet, not a halo....

by yurintroubl on Jun 4, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see what you're saying, but you have to take running styles and conferences into account.

Shady wasn’t running inside nearly as much as Scott and he was up against a Big East schedule as opposed to Scott’s SEC schedule. Those two snippets make Scott’s stat more impressive in my mind.

by NOLACuse on Jun 4, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm hoping that

his carrying techniques are part of the focus in OTAs and TC. I’m sure he’s heard it plenty and knows that is something he needs to work on. I see him improving from last year.

In life, as in a football game, the principle to follow is: Hit the line hard.
-Theodore Roosevelt

by Eaglesgrl5 on Jun 4, 2010 12:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Charles Scott/LSU Schedule

2009 SEC Offensive Player of the Week vs. Georgia
2008 First-Team All-SEC (Coaches)
2008 Second-Team All-SEC (AP)
SEC Offensive Player of the Week vs. Auburn, Sept. 22, 2008

2,317 career rushing yards and 32 touchdowns … Ranked fourth in school history in career touchdowns (32)

Tulane
Old Miss
Auburn
Alabama
Arkansas
App St
Florida
Georgia

Phillies in the World Series, Flyers in the Stanley Cup, now all we need is the Philadelphia Eagles in the Superbowl. Arlington, Texas 2011...

by STRAIGHTOYOURFACE on Jun 4, 2010 12:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Weird….i thought i was in the clear, but then as soon as i finished reading “Georgia,” that entire comment Straight O’ed My Face. Damnit!

If you dont like Big Red, then F#%@ You!
-Ricky Bobby

by GreenInBaltimore on Jun 4, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Straight O’ed My Face

Bravo sir.

They call me The Professor.

by Whodie126 on Jun 4, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

The schools you listed

Are those just the games he played or games he played well in or what?

Sorry if my question seems dumb, kinda hard to follow College ball in Denmark :)

by T-rade on Jun 4, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm shocked he had no fumbles in college

he had the same bad habit back then…. sometimes it looks like he’s using the football to deke, like he’s doing a basketball move almost.

My "t" and "y" buttons are messed up so don't bitch at me about misspelling, I'm just saying.

by RadioheadbeatlesEagles on Jun 4, 2010 2:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Kind of like Dave Chappelle and his “And 1” skit?

http://www.ibeatyou.com/competition/7cfc99/best-chappelle-show-skit

Formerly Bye, Dawk :(

by JimmyK on Jun 4, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Great analysis. (Rec'd)

And now I have more nightmares with KK’s int’s and Shady’s ball security. It was a dimming memory until you brought this up again. But – they are both young. I think KK will learn to be more patient and Shady’s gonna buy some Krazy glue.

All will be well.

I hope.

by IggleGreen on Jun 4, 2010 5:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Shady needs to get the Tiki treatment

"I'd like to thank my hands for being so great." (Freddie Mitchell)

by PhillySportsDave on Jun 4, 2010 5:44 PM EDT reply actions  

was just thinking that

I remember the madden commentary on that to this very day

2010-11 Predictions:

Kevin Kolb will go to the probowl and complete >65% of passes.

Jeremy Maclyn will have more receptions than Miles Austin & Steve Smith

Graham will have the starting LDE spot tied up by week 5, win ROTY, and have >10 Sacks

11-5 finish.

by corn on the kolb on Jun 5, 2010 12:26 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I forgive

the Tillman play. Tillman is a stripping monster. I mean wtf, he just ran up and punched the ball. I don’t understand why these players don’t hold the ball like Tiki did in the second half of his career. One end tucked in your elbow, and pointing towards the ground and the other end covered by your hand and pointed towards the sky. And the ball is hugged tightly to the chest at all times.

"Buy low sell high!"

by Dmyth13 on Jun 5, 2010 10:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Maybe they’re thinking about straight-arming aspiring tacklers?

"Verde que te quiero verde..."
Το πράσινο είναι ζωή!
That's right, I bleed green multiculturally
"if you shut someone down with class, it's more effective" - Udalango

by Rabbit T on Jun 5, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

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