The SackSEER Equation

Hey everyone! I was just looking around SBNation, and I came across a really neat website that details possible sack predictions for the top 2010 Defensive End and Outside Linebacker prospects that were drafted. It's actually pretty accurate. The link gives you a list of past and current players who went through the equation, and it accurately guessed a lot of the booms and busts in the NFL: Aaron Schobel had the highest SackSEER total of all time, for instance, and our own past pick Jerome McDougle had the second lowest score. It doesn't seem to be always accurate in a few spots, and some of the scores can be taken with a grain of salt.


This list really gives us a good prediction on how well our new DE's will do, as well as opposing DE's. Now, it doesn't have every Defensive End in the draft or every DE the Eagles acquired, but it does highlight a few key individuals that a lot of BGN'ers would be interested in learning about. The final result is an estimate in the amount of sacks the player will acquire over a span of five years in the NFL, and it combines elements including Vertical, Shuttle Run, Missed Games, and a few other variables I'm not going to go over the equation (it'll tell about everything through the link), but here's some important players Eagles fans should know about:

PHI's Brandon Graham: Projection: 22.1 Sacks through Year 5.

It's the fourth highest total that they calculated among the DE's of this class, which isn't bad. I wouldn't be upset with this kind of output at first, although I personally believe that Graham will produce a bit more than just four sacks per year. The biggest dent in our Graham seems to be his poor vertical, but his great shuttle time helps him make up for it.

NYG's Jason Pierre-Paul: Projection: 3.8 Sacks through Year 5

That's not a misprint. 3.8 sacks. They say that even if they took out the most negative factor against JPP (which is the most important factor), he'd still have the lowest number in the draft class. His combine results were poor, and he played a very small amount of games. This is a terrible number, to be honest.

Sleeper Defensive End of the Draft: Te'O'Nesheim

They don't give a specific number on his projected stats, but they do believe that his intangibles (did anyone realize that he has a 37-inch vertical and a 4.18 Shuttle?) provide him with the tools to succeed in the NFL as a top-tier sack monster. Note that a lot of people on this website have him projected as a Third Round choice as well, which is interesting.

There's a bunch of other stats up there of other DE's, including Dunlap (who was, at first, mocked to us many a time) and Hughes (who leads the class). I don't place a whole lot of stock in these prediction modulators, but this one seems pretty neat. I'm very happy with the DE's we've chosen, and perhaps we can also get grades for our other picks. I wouldn't mind knowing how well Sapp will do.

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