Payton, Reid, and unexpected onside kicks

Saw this on NYTimes and thought it was a great short article on how Payton's 'gambles' were actually pretty savvy and that his decision to go for the TD on 4th down was actually a bit more mathematically justified by the odds than by the odd-sides kick:

4th and goal

"With a little less than two minutes to go in the half and a fourth-and-goal on the 1 and the Saints trailing, 10-3, the Win Probability analysis agrees with the go-for-it call. A field goal gives the Saints a 0.32 Win Probability. A touchdown ties the score and gives the Saints a 0.48 Win Probability. A failed attempt gives the Colts a first down at their 1 with 1 minute 55 seconds to play in the half and drops the Saints’ Win Probability to 0.26. It was certainly a high-stakes play. Fourth-and-goal from the 1 plays are converted 68 percent of the time. This makes the overall decision to go for it worth a 0.41 Win Probability:

0.68 * 0.48 + (1-0.68) * 0.26 = 0.41 WP

Going for the touchdown was the better call, 0.41 versus 0.32 Win Probability."

Onside kick

"Onside kicks are more successful when they are not expected. Since 2000, slightly more than 60 percent of unexpected onside kicks have been recovered by the kicking team.

In this case, the Saints were behind by 4. A deep kick would typically give the Colts a first-and-10 near their own 30, translating to a 0.32 Win Probability for the Saints. A failed onside kick gives the Colts a first down at the Saints’ 40 or so, worth a 0.26 Win Probability to the Saints. A successful recovery gives the Saints possession at their own 40, giving them a 0.39 Win Probability. In total, the onside attempt is worth a 0.34 Win Probability:

0.60 * 0.39 + (1-0.60) * 0.27 = 0.34 WP

The onside attempt was a good gamble according to the numbers, but not by much — 0.34 versus 0.32 Win Probability."

Eagles and unexpected onside kicks

One of the things I was surprised to see was that just about 60% of unexpected onside kicks have succeeded over the past 10 years.  Reid tried this very same thing in Philly this year against the Skins this year to start the game and took a huge amount of crap on BGN and Philly in general (big surprise).   Went back and looked quickly and Reid has only tried this 3 other times during his tenure in Philly.

2000 vs. Dallas - Eagles open the season with an unexpected onside kick vs. Dallas on the kickoff.  Eagles recover, score a TD, and go on to romp the Boys 41-14.

2003 vs. Dallas - Eagles try a similar trick against Dallas but later in the game.  It backfires badly as Dallas recovers the ball and scores a pivotal TD.  Boys win 23-21.

2007 vs NE - Eagles executed a successful surprise onside kick early in the 2nd qtr.  They didn't score on the drive though and lost the game 31-28. (Updated: Thanks Imp for the heads up)

So basically, Reid has coached the Eagles in 194 games (including 18 postseason games) and used the unexpected onside kick 4 times (2 successful/2 unsuccessful).  As rare as seeing some real emotion from Reid during a post-game Q&A.

It will be interesting to see if the unexpected onside kick gets used a bit more next year in the NFL (it is like the white tiger of the NFL and only get used a handful of times during the entire season) but I can't imagine that Reid will that apt to try using it again next year.

Is there anything else you would like to see Reid do to take more risks?