Why it is Time for McNabb to Move On

If You Can’t Step Up….You Have To Step Aside

Why it is Time for McNabb to Move On

Seven times Donovan McNabb has played the biggest game of the Eagles postseason. Seven times he has lost. 

If the goal of an NFL season is to win the Super Bowl, a preponderance of evidence clearly illustrates fairly conclusively that this will not happen with Donovan McNabb as the Philadelphia Eagles Quarterback. Therefore, it is time to move on.

Andy Reid certainly deserves a large portion of the blame and most would also like to see Andy go however it is clear the decision has been made to continue with Andy. Therefore, the choice is now simple. Does McNabb stay or go? The clear answer - - - time to move on.

During the prime of his career, McNabb has had seven opportunities to win the final meaningful game of the Eagles season and he has failed every time. Many of these games he was favored to win against a supposedly weaker opponent .This was not solely his fault, but it happened on his watch, with him as the undisputed offensive leader.

There is no data that exists to show this will change, especially now that his physical skills are most likely on the decline.

Not once in those seven games has McNabb had a statistically outstanding game. In fact, his averages in those games are well below his overall career averages.

In other words, not only did he never once step up and put the team on his back as stars and leaders are expected to do, he did the opposite; in each of those seven tries he has been a contributing factor to the loss by not playing up to at least his normal quality of play.

The statistical evidence

McNaab has thrown a pick in all seven games, he has never had more TD’s than INT’s in any of those games, he never topped a 60% completion percentage, and his average passer rating in those seven games is 66.7%. (That would put him in the bottom 5 of 32 NFL Quarterbacks for the 2009 NFL season)

In five of the seven games he had less than 245 yards passing. He has also averaged a paltry 54.5% completion percentage in those games. (Only 4 of 32 NFL Quarterbacks had a worse completion percentage for the 2009 season).

Buried in that avalanche of damning statistical evidence is the fact that McNabb has only led his team to an average of 15 points per game in those seven games….fifteen points per game!

It is simple math, if you average fifteen points per game in the NFL playoffs you most likely will never win. Only one NFL team has won a playoff game scoring less than 15 points in the past 10 years…that was when the Eagles lost to the Panthers 14 – 3.

The Eagles have averaged 24 points per game in the regular season over the past eight years. In only one of the seven games has McNabb led his team over that mark - that was last year when they scored 25 points in the loss to the Cardinals.

The simple fact is that Donovan McNabb is paid to win the biggest postseason game of the year. He has had seven opportunities to do so, and each and every time he has not only been unequal to the task, he has been unable too surpass his normal regular season output. There is no evidence to believe that this can change now that he is 33 years old and has several injuries under his belt.

The Facts; The Seven Biggest Games of McNabb’s Playoff Career

Enough with supporting statistics. Although they speak for themselves and paint a very solid picture over a more than reasonable sampling of data, let’s look at the McNabb defenders.

Response to – "The McNabb Defense"

The most common excuse is that it is not all McNabb’s fault. We will stipulate that as the truth. During these games many others had significant roles in the Birds defeat, ranging from GM to coach’s to other players who did not execute. The Eagles would do well to try and fix those problems as well, however, the difference is that McNabb is the most important player, the leader, the one on the field constant during that period – and - the one who had stepped up could have had the most significant impact on the games.

Typically the McNabb apologist’s excuses come in a few flavors; a) the defense played poorly and cost them the game, b) McNabb did not have any receivers / weapons to help him, c) the run / pass mix (or Andy Reid game plan) was poor.

Let’s examine those excuses:

1. The defense played poorly – averaging 15 points per game, and only once in seven times scoring more than your average season point total - this does not carry weight. Yes, the defense played poorly at times and contributed to the losses, but the argument is over when you only score 15 points per game. If you have seven tries to produce an above average season point total and only do that once, the defense is not the largest problem.

1. No receivers / weapons – again, scoring only an average of 15 points, or 9+ points below your regular season average, is not a valid excuse in and of itself. Yes, the playmakers were both few and weak at times however they were good enough to help McNabb achieve much higher point totals as well as passer rating, passing percentage, and TD to INT ratio during the regular season. Not a valid excuse.

1. Poor game plan / play calling – This may be the most compelling argument AGAINST McNabb. If you are a star, paid like a star, a leader, and paid like a leader, you find a way. Maybe not every time, but you find a way to win at least once or twice in those seven tries. You do not fail every time. Someone in McNabb’s position has options to overcome this game plan / play calling issue, the two most obvious are:

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   1. Use your clout, experience and expertise – Hey, Andy, I know we have this game plan that we worked on all week but we have tried it for half the game and it ain’t working. We need to do something different. I am on the field and have the rhythm and pulse of this game - I have some ideas…I see what their D is trying to do, I see who is tired or gimpy, I see who they are trying to hide and not let us exploit, I see some holes that we need to probe, I see who is hot on our team, I see in their eyes who wants the ball and deserves it, we need to get it to them, I see a matchup we can exploit, I see some plays we can use to set up some of their defenders for later in the game….why don’t we try these other plays? You have to trust me Andy, I am now 0 – 3 (0- 4, 0 - 5, 0 - 6) in these games, have several years in this system under my belt and you can count on me.

                                                               i.      There are two possibilities in this scenario (neither good)  - Either he never tried that tactic and therefore is not a leader and is afraid to take charge, or, he did try it and it did not work, meaning he is not a leader and although unafraid, is not a field general you can count on. Either way it illustrates that he does not have the football leadership intangibles that separate the elite QB’s from the rest.

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   1. Selectively take over the play calling and ask for forgiveness later – Audibles! If something is not working and Andy won’t listen, and you have been down this path before and see the same outcome on the horizon, look for opportunities to change the play to something you feel has a better chance.

                                                               i.      Same possibilities as above, only two possible outcomes – He did not do it, which is bad, or, he did it and his plays did not work, which is bad. Either way, not a valid excuse.

Why we can’t expect a better outcome in future years

Simple - he has been here 11 years and he is not improving physically or fundamentally.

1. Better Physically? – This is not a reasonable expectation by any means. Although he is most likely still in great physical shape, and deserves kudos for his offseason workout regimen and physical dedication to the sport, at 33 the odds and history say no. In addition, even in peak condition he has shown that he gets hurt frequently. Alongside these facts, you have the reduced expectation that he will either last a full season, or, be at a physical peak when the biggest game of the year rolls around.

1. Better Fundamentally? – Can we name something tangible that he does better now than 5 years ago? Accuracy? Touch passes? Pump fakes? Play action fakes? Clock management? Looking off a receiver? Two minute drill? Reading through progressions? Hitting receivers in stride? Without being in the film room, on the sideline or in the huddle it is hard to say if he is getting better at reading defenses so we should give him the benefit of the doubt there. As for the rest of the list, it seems there is a preponderance of evidence to suggest he has not improved over the past five years in any of those areas, therefore, there is little reason to expect the coming years will show improvement in those areas.

The Intangibles

So, now that we have laid out the case in the statistical as well as leadership, physical and fundamental phases, we have the touchy feely "intagibles" issue to deal with.

Certainly these touchy feely issues do not explain the lack of big game wins, and are not a reason to see McNabb move on in and of themselves, these issues can only help to explain two things; Why we can’t expect a better outcome in future years, and, why the national press has a different view of McNabb than the frustrated Philadelphia fans who watch him every week.

Allow me to explain from a Philadelphia Eagles fans perspective.

The playoff excitement builds for an entire week. You plan where you will watch the game and who you will watch it with. You discuss the game and all possible strategies, permutations and outcomes for the entire week. You do this with friends, family and strangers. You go back through history to find similar games to get a feel for what to expect. All you are begging for is another win so you get another game, until eventually you get your elusive Super Bowl and the parade and bragging rights that go with it. You know your team is one of the very few that has never won a Super Bowl, but you always think this year is different, this is our year. We have been here for 50 years waiting for this Super Bowl, longer than all of the players and some of the coaches have been alive. We will be here long after these players have gone, still waiting for our chance, hoping this is the year, hoping that these players play their best game of the year and bring it home.

Then - the biggest playoff game of the year arrives. You know the history and stats say McNabb and the Eagles won’t perform to expectations, but you suspend that history and root for them with all of your heart.

The game starts, on the fourth play of the game the Eagles call a timeout for some unexplained reason. Even though the first 15 plays are scripted, something invariably goes wrong and they are forced to call a timeout. No problem, you boo and call them rat bastiges but you are used to it, they do it all the time. At this point you know it is only 50/50 that they will have a timeout left for the invariable poorly executed 2 minute drill, but we have overcome this before so we hope.

In the next series, after a couple of mystical play calls, it is 3rd and five. Everyone knows what will happen, and surely it does, a 3 yard buttonhook to a flat footed statutory, stationary receiver with a defender draped on him. You get upset, but again, you are used to it, you have seen this for years. You are not certain if this was the play call or the checkdown that McNabb took too quickly, but you know you have an explosive offense so you slowly forget it. We have hope, we have overcome this before.

Next series we have a fleet receiver wide open on a 7 yard crossing route with plenty of green pasture in front. Anyone who is a true Eagles fan hopes the receiver has his catching feet buckled on because sure enough, the worm burner barely clears the shoe tops. Oh well, simply another incompletion, we are used to this by now. We budget for 2 – 3 of those per game. We can easily overcome again.

By this time we are eagerly awaiting our chance at the halftime two minute drill. A close game, and although we are trailing by a few, if we score here, we can have the momentum in the second half. Fortunately, by some miracle, we actually have one timeout left. Starting from our own 39 we only need 35 yards to get to field goal range. Plenty of time. McNabb hits a back over the middle for a three yard gain. If he would have hit him in stride instead of on his back shoulder, it may have been 15 – 20 yards, or he may have gotten out of bounds, no worry though, plenty of time. As McNabb and Reid casually discuss the next play through helmet talk and hand signals, the rest of the team casually saunters towards the line, or the general proximity of the line. Good news, we still have 5 seconds on the play clock for McNabb to read the defense, decide if this is the right play and get the snap off, no problem, we can do this in our sleep. Although we are pretty certain that our screaming from the stands, bar or living room won’t speed up their play, we try anyway.

Soon after, its third and ten on the opponent 41 with 46 seconds and a timeout left. A football eternity, plenty of time… plenty of time. McNabb drops back and although the football clock in everyone’s head is ticking, McNabb is not finding an open receiver (even though replays clearly show he had one), and he does not seem to want to use his legs to get out of trouble or out of bounds. As he patiently waits and waits, you are hoping he at least throws it away, but alas, he is shocked to find that after 5 - 6 seconds in the pocket, a defender has somehow managed to break free and sack him. No problem, there was a penalty on the play, replay the down. Whew…luckily, just enough time for one more interception.

Thankfully we get to go to the locker room and regroup. Some novice Eagle fans may be ticked off or curious why McNabb was smiling as he walked off the field after the pick, but we faithful are used to it, he likes to smile after picks or poorly thrown balls to wide open receivers. Any true Birds fan knows that, not too happy about it, and can’t understand it, but after 11 years you are somewhat used to it. That’s OK, we will all be miserable for him.

Can’t wait to see what adjustments the Birds made at halftime. Looks like the two starting tackles and middle linebacker for the other team are hurt, possibly crippled, can’t tell for sure but one of the tackles may be missing an arm, certainly a weak spot to be surgically exploited by our running game.

As we start the second half with 14 consecutive passes, almost half of which we complete, we seem to be gathering steam. Down by an insurmountable 5 points we obviously have to abandon the run. Common sense dictates this strategy.

We have now marched 56 yards and chewed almost two full minutes off the clock. (The defense can thank us for the rest later). Time for the field goal to get us within 2.

The well rested defense holds. All is good. 

McNabb back at the helm hits a long pass for 38 yards. On the move again, looking good. Although our tight end had a surreal 1st half where seemingly no one could cover him, McNabb and Reid do the prudent thing and use him as a decoy. Don’t expect him to see the ball the rest of the game….too obvious. Instead, we try and get it to our #5 receiver, our #3 tight end, and our #3 running back, all to no avail. Again, not certain if they were the intended targets, checkdowns, or simply keeping the other team off guard by not using our top players. No matter, we are within striking distance and feeling good….until that fumble by McNabb. I guess some saw it coming when he had his back to the rush for over 5 seconds, but he is a playmaker and that is what happens, the price you pay. No problem, we have seen this plenty of times and have overcome it.

Meanwhile, the camera cuts to McNabb on the sideline, sitting by himself, looking kind of hip and laid back, kinda how casual looks when it is non-chalant. Some may wonder why when the camera cuts to other QB’s on the sidelines they are looking over pictures of the defense with coaches, or pumping up the offense, or talking strategy with someone. This ability to sit or stand casually at a moments notice, no matter the situation, separates McNabb from the other QB’s. It seems to work for him so we brush it aside. It does seem like he has a slight pout in this shot, must just be the camera angle. No worries, the coaches in the booth and Andy will work on figuring out how to get those elusive winning points. McNabb is better just sitting there on the sideline, silently contemplating…or something…

Now we are down to crunch time. The Birds have the ball with a chance to win it. They seem to be meandering towards the line of scrimmage with renewed purpose. They may even have time to call an audible if needed….oops, there goes another timeout. If only we had not wasted one earlier when the play clock was winding down at the beginning of the 3rd quarter on 1st down and five (after a penalty) on our own 49. Some would say we should have taken the 5 yard penalty, instead of burning the timeout, but we know better. We are used to it, we will overcome.

No problem, we still have one timeout left and plenty of time. Now is when we call the draw up the middle and catch them off guard. It does, and we get 9. After some very meaningful milling about, the Birds get back to the line in time to run a perfectly executed play action pass down the middle for another 14 yards. Maybe not perfectly executed, I guess the pass would have been completed for that to be true. It seems that some of these other teams don’t go for the play action fake when; you are in an obvious passing situation, you have only run the ball 11 times in 57 plays, and the QB fakes the handoff in the "general vicinity" of where he "thought"  the back might be.

Ohhmm. All is good. We have been here before and we can overcome. All of our piercing pleas and creative use of our f-bomb / body part mash-ups, no matter how inspired and practiced, may not be helping directly, but we are certain they are needed.

Down to a final couple of plays. A TD is all that is needed, 11 simple yards to traverse, two downs and 13 seconds to do it in. Better call the final timeout now and get the play right rather than save it. As we all know the best play call when you need 11 yards is a 5 yard crossing route; we know if we hit a random receiver 6 yards from the end zone, he has a good chance to take it to the house from there. How tough is 6 yards? The game is on the line so McNabb knows that the 5 yards this pass needs to travel had better come out hot, send it with steam right at the numbers. Can’t risk laying it in there in front of the receiver giving him time to turn upfield, this pass needs to leave an imprint between the numbers. It’s the receiver’s job to catch the ball and figure a way to score; it is McNabb’s job to burn it in there at max velocity. But just to be sure, we have a backup plan and we imaginatively send all of our receivers out at no more than 10 yards depth, this way, any one of them can take it that final few yards. If not, at least we have a timeou….oops. Well at least we completed the pass and McNabb is smiling. I know time ran out and we lost but we got real close. We’ll get ‘em next year, you watch, things will be different. (Lather, Rinse, Repeat...)

While we fans are looking for wrist slitting instruments and random objects to kick, we notice the Eagles, led by McNabb, enjoying a lighthearted chuckle or two with the opponent, probably making dinner reservations or comparing offseason plans. Our week is shot, another dagger in the heart, already calloused with the scars from the past 50 years, longer than McNabb has been alive, but at least he is having fun…he’s got that goin’ for him.

Although we know better, we stick around for the post game news conference. After Andy comes on to say he needs to do a better job, coach them up better, and put them in better position to win, McNabb takes the podium.

He sounds in fine monotone. Although he says he is the leader and takes full responsibility, he also manages to work in the fact that the defense did not give him the ball back with enough time on the clock, the team is young and prone to making youthful mistakes, and all he does is execute the plays that the coaches call. No problem, we will get them next year.

Conclusion

It is not just about the stats or the losses, it is nice to know that they work as hard at their job as we do, care as much about the outcome as we do, and feel the pain we do when we lose. Even if they don’t, at least act like you do. At least give us the illusion that you are one of us. That is all we ask. Work hard, get dirty, show you care, learn from your mistakes, enjoy the game as much as we do and feel as much or more pain after a loss as we do. Is that too much to ask?

Empirical evidence shows that when given chances in the prime of his career, sometimes against inferior opponents, McNabb has not been able to find a way to win and has not played well. Not only has he lost, but he has done so in the exact same fashion each time. 11 years of watching not just the losses, but the poor clock management, lack of urgency, easy outward acceptance of defeats and poor execution, blaming others, sidleline sulking, inability to improve basic fundamental have all led to the same conclusion. Time to move on.

With his talent he may win a Super Bowl for another team. He has the talent, and if he keeps up this level of regular season play for a few more years he may make the Hall of Fame. As an off the field human there seem to be none better in recent Philadelphia history. Unlike some of his selfish, petulant, substance abusing brethren in other towns and other sports, he is a pleasure to watch off the field, a giving and caring member of the community.

That can make you a role model, but unfortunately it does not buy you another chance to lead The Birds. We may never win without him, or find someone with his talent and on field flair, but we have seen enough to know that we won’t win a Super Bowl with him. The parade is still the goal and he can’t take us there.