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A closer look at this year's interception leaders
This year's interception leaderboard has several big names, some surprising and some not. I'll take a closer look.
Brett Favre (18 INT, 5 FumL). The only thing surprising here is that the all-time interception leader who is well known (and at times celebrated) for forcing interceptions has managed the highest interception rate of his storied career. Last year he had his lowest interception rate ever at 1.3 per 100 passes, which contributed to his career high passer rating, a Pro Bowl berth, and a belief in magical fountains of youth. This year, he has his highest interception rate ever at 5.1 per 100, which got his coach fired and will probably result in his third and hopefully final retirement.
Eli Manning (17 INT, 5 FumL). Eli is also having the worst interception rate since his rookie season, at 4.2 per 100. Announcers keep pardoning it by saying a lot of them were on tipped passes that weren't his fault. It may be partially true that he's been a little unlucky, as we wouldn't normally expect a QB in the prime of his career to suddenly spike above his career INT rate. But his career INT rate is terrible, so let's not forgive him completely. You don't blame it all on tipped balls when the guy's career rate is the same as Brett Favre and the only active QBs worse than him are Boller, Delhomme, Cutler, Fitzpatrick, Young, Kitna, ASmith, Grossman, and Anderson.
Drew Brees (16 INT, 1 FumL). I was surprised when I looked closer at his numbers. I would have assumed that a QB as accurate as Brees (65.3% career completion percentage is 2nd among active QBs) would have a very low interception rate, but his career 2.7% rate is middling at best. Like Favre and Eli, he's prone to interceptions and having a relatively bad year, but his career rate isn't quite as high as those two and his spike this year isn't quite as bad as theirs. The only reason he's close to them in number of interceptions is that he's thrown a lot more passes.
Donovan McNabb (15 INT, 1 FumL). Remember when every game they'd mention how McNabb was the all-time leader in interception rate? Well, they don't have to say that any more; 3/4 of a season in Washington has dropped him all the way to fourth. It's really amazing -- his rookie year, he was at 3.2 INT per 100 passes, and then he was between 1.5 and 2.5 every year since then...until his 3.4% rate this year. Even with Charles Johnson and Torrance Small, even with James Thrash and Todd Pinkston, even as a raw second-year player, he was never even close to as bad as he is this season. Maybe Andy Reid has a magical system -- Vick is a 2.7% career guy at 0.7% this year. Maybe the Eagles' receivers improving over the last couple years covered for McNabb deteriorating with age, and now being dropped back into a bad situation has exposed him. I don't know, but I find it train-wreck fascinating to watch.
Peyton Manning (15 INT, 1 FumL). Peyton is taking a lot of crap right now because he's thrown a million interceptions in the last three weeks and his team is losing. But his interception rate isn't higher than usual -- at 2.8%, it's right at his career numbers (which, like Brees, are surprisingly mediocre). What is extremely high is his attempts per game -- at 44.5, it's the highest in the league by a sizable margin, and the highest of his career by an even more sizable margin. The three- and four-interception games definitely hurt the team, but the blame should be at least partly on the coaches calling 50 passes a game and/or on the running game (or lack thereof) that forces them to do so.
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but the blame should be at least partly on the coaches calling 50 passes a game and/or on the running game (or lack thereof) that forces them to do so.
Which still leads back to Manning, since he calls the plays.
And it really isn’t the surprises that accurate QB have mediocre interception rates. Accurate QB takes far more risk in forcing the ball in a tight window, since they are capable of making those plays doing so. Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning are very accurate, but they take a lot of risks and thus have a bunch of interceptions. Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick (far as career numbers goes) aren’t accurate but don’t take a lot of chances with tight widows and have low interception rates.
RIP Jim Johnson, best ever.
by Imp on Dec 7, 2010 3:31 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Interesting point about Peyton’s control over the play-calling. Anyway, I think the real blame is on the o-line and/or running backs for making running a bad option this year.
As for the correlation between accuracy and interceptions, I’m not so sure. Among active players, there is an inverse correlation between completion percentage and interception rate, but it’s a pretty weak one (R^2 = .24). So guys with higher completion percentages do tend to have lower interception rates, but there’s a lot of overlap between the populations, and Brees and Peyton just happen to be two of the guys who go most against the grain at that high end of completion percentage (with McNabb the most against-the-grain at the low end).
In other words, for every two Peytons and Breeses (accurate QBs with lots of interceptions), there are three Rodgerses and Bradies and Riverses (accurate QBs with few interceptions). For every two McNabbs and Ortons (inaccurate QBs with few interceptions) there are three Andersons and Youngs and Elis (inaccurate QBs with lots of interceptions). The correlation is there, but I’m surprised it’s so weak — and your explanation about mentality might be part of it; because our data only includes people who had long careers, it includles McNabb (inaccurate but conservative) and excludes Tim Couch (inaccurate risk-taker who eventually lost his job).
Anyway, I think the real blame is on the o-line and/or running backs for making running a bad option this year.
See I’m not ready to put so much blame on them. As much as the run game and O-line have been bad, my question about the former is….when is the last time the Colts really had a successful rushing offense? Since the 2006 season, the highest the Colts have finished in rushing offense is 18th. The last year 2 years they finished in last or second to last in the NFL. Last year they went to the Super Bowl last year with the worst rushing offense in the NFL.
I am more inclined to blame Manning for this one. I think Manning gets too much of a pass by the media and NFL fans. Its like when things go great, its Manning being Manning, but when things go bad, its everyone else around Manning who is screwing up. Like Manning playing bad is blasphemy or something. I mean granted he doesn’t have the best O-Line in the NFL, he has a bad running game, and he lost Dallas Clark; but I’ve seen some QBs do better with just as bad of situations or worse situations. So, while all the blame can’t be attributed to Manning, a lot can be. He is doing things not Manning like: staring down receivers, missing timed passes, reading coverages wrong, not looking off defenders, not shifting the O-Line to protect against blitzes, and calling too many passing audibles.
I have no problem calling Peyton out if he's performing poorly
but I guess my argument is that his rate numbers don’t look bad to me.
staring down receivers […]
not looking off defenders
His interception percentage is right at his career rate.
missing timed passes
His completion percentage is above his career rate.
not shifting the O-Line to protect against blitzes
His sack rate is below his career rate.
Maybe it’s his fault that so many pass plays are being called; I don’t know. But honestly, his season-long numbers look perfectly in line with his stellar career, so I have a hard time pinning this one on him.
You do make a good point about the running game being just as bad in recent years; I hadn’t realized that. Another interesting thing to note: their offense is 4th in the league in points per game, and averaging 27 points per game in their losses. What’s changed is that their defense was 8th in ppg last year, 7th in ppg in 2008, 1st in ppg in 2007…and 22nd in ppg this year.
I told you guys that McNabb was awful! he hasn’t been good since 2003. I always ttold you guys this, and nobody ever believed me. Anybody still want your beloved McNabb? Is he still the greatest QB ever??? lolololol…. I would like everyone to say just once that I’m right. I’m looking at all you stupid kids who loved McNabb solely because they grew up watching him. He’s been declining for years, and this proves it. Remember when he threw up because he was so out of shape? This season proves that he’s out of shape and doesn’t have any work ethic, and he’s still the baby he was in Philly. I was right, like always.
/Joe_D
There you go, Joe. Now you don’t have to waste your time and energy =)
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I give Peyton's INT rate a nudge up...
…simply because he is more responsible for them than any other QB to ever play. Announcers are always quick to point out how Peyton basically calls his own plays (they send in two passes and a run and he chooses the one he wants) but they pardon his INT’s due to a lack of a run game. Well, guess what….If he is responsible for choosing when they run, he is responsible for poor run numbers too. And being one of the most potent playaction QB’s ever doesn’t help when the defense doesn’t think you are going to run the ball. (Ask Andy Reid)

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