Is Mel Kiper a shill for agent Gary Wichard?

by JimmyK on Oct 12, 2010 9:14 PM EDT

In my 33 years of being a football fan, I can't possibly estimate how many hours I've spent either watching Mel Kiper talk about college prospects on ESPN, or reading his projections, analysis, and draft grades on espn.com. I'm a fan... a big fan. The hair, the mannerisms, the knowledge, the whole thing. Ask Kiper about a guard from some little D3 school in North Dakota, and he'll rattle off his strengths and weaknesses off the top of his head. He's become an icon of sorts in the professional sports world, and somewhat of an oddity, in that you only really see him for 2-3 months every year, but for those 2-3 months he's everywhere. He's kind of like the Michael Jordan of draftniks, and with the insane popularity of the NFL draft growing to unfathomable levels, his stature as "the guy" in that unique world is something to be envied.

That is why it was with great interest and surprise I read about Kiper's possible conflict of interest in George Dohrmann's outstanding read for Sports Illustrated about sports agents, which strongly implied that Kiper may be in cahoots with agent Gary Wichard.

This isn't the first time Kiper has been scrutinized for letting conflicts of interest get in way of honest analysis. Many people questioned whether his friendship with Wichard influenced his high rating for Jimmy Clausen. Kiper had Clausen rated higher than Sam Bradford leading up to the 2010 draft. I went back to Kiper's final "big board" (his April 21^st edition) on espn.com, but that page was curiously not loading. Instead, I went to the "big board" he published the prior week (April 14^th). Clausen was ranked 4^th. He was eventually drafted 48^th overall by Carolina.

But Clausen wasn't the only Wichard prospect in this draft class. The others were C.J. Spiller, Taylor Mays, Arrelious Benn, and Everson Griffen. All 4 made appearances on Kiper's Top 25 big board at some point leading up to draft day, although C.J. Spiller was the only one that made Kiper's April 14 big board. Kiper had Spiller ranked 8^th - He was drafted 9^th overall to the Bills, a move that was widely considered a reach by analysts. Interestingly, Kiper did a 2^nd round mock draft after the 1^st round of the 2010 draft had been completed, and here is where Kiper suggested Wichard's clients should be drafted, in order:

Kiper had Arrelious Benn being drafted 1^st in the 2^nd round (33^rd overall) by the Rams. Benn would eventually be drafted by the Buccaneers at 37.
Kiper had Taylor Mays being drafted 2^nd in the 2^nd round (34^th overall) by the Vikings. Mays would eventually be taken 49^th overall by the 49ers.
Kiper had Jimmy Clausen being drafted 4^th in the 2^nd round (36^th overall) by the Chiefs. As noted above, he went 48^th to the Panthers.
Kiper had Everson Griffen being drafted 22^nd in the 2^nd round (54^th overall) by the Bengals. He would eventually be drafted 100^th overall, in the 4^th round by Minnesota.

I'm certainly willing to hear Kiper out, but he has some explaining to do.

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Comments

I have long suspected something like this.

If this is true, any shred of credibility he may have had is gone.

"Andy Reid is a huge fraud"--EJ from 97.5

by EvilBanner on Oct 12, 2010 9:21 PM EDT reply actions

When did he ever have any credibility.

If I remember correctly, Kiper is a fucking idiot.

DAT ASS!!

by DickMuffin on Oct 12, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions

C'mon man

I know you’re not a fucking idiot yourself, but Kiper is a one smart character in the sports world. Saturday mornings that guy will spin your head during the Summer on sports radio. I, however don’t give him a pass for all this. I’m disappointed for sure. But before all this came up, Kiper is the mac daddy of draft shiz.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Why don’t I strap on my job helmet and squeeze down into a job cannon and fire off into Jobland where jobs grow on jobbies!

by Wormburn on Oct 12, 2010 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions

antwan barnes signed by chargers

Asante passes tests. Thank u.

by flyeaglesfly10 on Oct 13, 2010 12:00 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Is there any evidence from previous years?

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Oct 12, 2010 9:27 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, he had several players ranked higher than where they were eventually drafted, but there wasn’t complete info. Here’s what I mean by that:

I originally had the idea to chart every current Wichard client, both where Kiper had them rated and where they were actually drafted. Unfortunately, his final big boards are surprisingly hard to find. For example, Wichard has a bunch of clients that went in the first round of the 2006 draft. I couldn’t find that big board, and it was only 5 years ago. Anyway, I didn’t have enough info going back several years the same way I did for 2010.

by JimmyK on Oct 12, 2010 9:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Yeah, I had the same idea...

…and ran into the same problem.

I’m guessing that this is from Kiper’s 2004 Big Board, and that this is from Kiper’s 2005 Big Board, but I don’t know for sure.

I gotta go read a book to the kidster; I’ll be back in a few minutes and if nobody does it while I’m away, I’ll look up the eventual draft positions of the Wichard clients in those drafts.

by Eric T. on Oct 12, 2010 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Here goes

2005

Shawne Merriman picked #12
Adam Jones picked #6
Travis Johnson picked #16

2004

JP Losman picked #22
Teddy Lehman picked #37
Rodney Leisle picked #139

Hmm. Looks like either the ‘ESPN lists’ referenced in those posts weren’t actually Kiper’s big boards, or Kiper wasn’t shilling for Wichard back in ’04-05.

by Eric T. on Oct 12, 2010 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Gahhh

Hate the autoformatter.

Merriman was listed 12th on the ESPN list, Jones 13th, Johnson 28th.

Losman 32nd, Lehman 54th, Leisle 83rd.

by Eric T. on Oct 12, 2010 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think those are Kiper big boards.

by JimmyK on Oct 12, 2010 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Dang.

What makes you think that? I know it’s possible, but how many lists of the top 100 propsects does ESPN have?

by Eric T. on Oct 12, 2010 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions

And my reasoning is that Kiper’s boards only go 25 deep.

by JimmyK on Oct 12, 2010 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah.

And I just noticed that the second one says at the bottom that it’s from another site.

Poop.

by Eric T. on Oct 12, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, haha, can’t really trust anything unless it’s actually on espn.com, and says “Written by Mel Kiper.”

by JimmyK on Oct 12, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions

What I've learned from all of this

is that ESPN and/or Kiper are smart enough to know that having old commentary available on the web opens you up to having people talk about what an idiot you were for ranking Joe Bust so high or Joe Awesome so low, and that they are pretty systematic about hiding and deleting his old work.

by Eric T. on Oct 12, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, possibly. The one place where you could definitely find his rankings would be old tapes of the draft itself on ESPN. They constantly run Kiper’s “Best Available” throughout the day. But unfortunately, I don’t have those, haha – I’m a huge dork, but not that big.

by JimmyK on Oct 12, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

My experience in the biz

tells me that 1) very rarely does anyone actually go out of their way to delete content off the internet, as old stuff can still generate $, and 2) even if companies did, it’s not really gone.

Try searching the Wayback machine at www.archive.org

Also, hailredskins.com compiles every mock draft that comes out, so that might be somewhere you could find old ones, or someone you could contact about digging them up.

I’m not sure it’s worth the effort to prove the Kiper point, but it could be done.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on Oct 13, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions

You have experience in this biz? really? how?

eff you we winning anyway
A.I. IS BACKKKKKKK

by eagleswin on Oct 13, 2010 6:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Not as an agent

Mass media.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on Oct 13, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, Okay.

eff you we winning anyway
A.I. IS BACKKKKKKK

by eagleswin on Oct 13, 2010 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions

interesting

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Oct 13, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

This is a must read article. You truly find out what this agent bussiness is all about. Its pretty astonoshing what lengths they go to.Man!!

by eaglesfan20 on Oct 12, 2010 9:33 PM EDT reply actions

personally, i prefer mike mayock. he’s less of a douche bag. kiper just comes off as some arrogant bastard who thinks he’s Gods gift to man.

by IwantVick on Oct 12, 2010 9:38 PM EDT reply actions

This.

Kiper comes off way too arrogant and annoying.

RIP Jim Johnson, best ever.

by Imp on Oct 12, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I love reading all the pre draft hype, but I really try not to buy into any one persons board too much. I’m far from a scout myself, and would probably have a hard time saying what school a prospect went too, as I do not watch much college football. But last year I found a website that had compiled several hundred mockdraft sites, along with the various mocks creadted by the users. After the draft i was suprised at how accurate it was (aside from a few outliers).
I can’t find that site anymore, and haven’t been able to find one like it either.
There’s a theory called the large number theory, most know as if you flip a coin 5 times it may come up all heads, but 5000 time it’ll be 50/50. This also applies to modeling things like the draft, etc. Which is why I think it was as close as it was.
Anyway, if anyone ever finds a site like this, please let me know.

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by SGTSteve on Oct 12, 2010 10:03 PM EDT reply actions

See my post above.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on Oct 13, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions

What a coincidence

I just learned about that in statistics class

Me Gusta Los Eagles

by RanjeethR on Oct 13, 2010 2:04 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

first thought.. OMG

after reading this article i immediately thought this article was breaking news of the decade… (at least to me, and my fellow homies in the sports world)

i had a feeling this shit was going on but i wasnt sure to what extent.

doesn’t surprise me one bit.

i always had something against mel kiper… whether its beause espn gave him his ten minutes of fame everytime the draft came around… or more so because his “top available” draft picks didnt pan out more often than they did.

i’m glad you posted this j. i’ve wanted to talk about this since i read it this morning.

by Ralf E Chubbs on Oct 12, 2010 10:21 PM EDT reply actions

This article is really interesting but really it just shows you how completely corrupt the college system is. Been this way for decades so if Kiper were involved, it really wouldn’t surprise me.

Let the beasting begin.

by TransplantedFan on Oct 12, 2010 10:35 PM EDT reply actions

In Kiper’s defense everybody gets picks wrong in a Mock Draft and the first three weren’t far off and people do miss by a few rounds sometimes.

by The Legend on Oct 12, 2010 10:38 PM EDT reply actions

It’s not so much that he was off – That’s perfectly understandable. The questionable aspect is that he overrated all 5 of his buddy’s clients.

by JimmyK on Oct 12, 2010 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

There could be a conflict, but I’m not sure that these rankings alone are proof. For one, more than a few people considered all of these guys to be first round talents at some point or another (Griffen was the most questionable of these). Whether this is a matter of chicken vs. egg, where people use Kiper’s rankings to determine their own, is up for some debate. Let’s assume that people have enough independence to form their own opinions:

More than a few people thought that Claussen was around as good as Bradford (and top QBs are usually high picks). It was only towards the end when it became clear that other teams were genuinely not interested that he dropped. FWIW, from what I saw of them in college, he WAS legitimately better than Tebow (as an NFL prospect) who wound up going in the first.

Griffen’s the most egregious offender, but he was a good collegiate pass rusher with questionable character (if I remember correctly). Sometimes teams will take chances on the skill, other times they won’t. This time they didn’t.

Benn shouldn’t even be listed here…being off by four picks isn’t a crime.

Mays was probably overranked, but I was never a fan of his anyway. I know some wanted Mays over Nate Allen, though, so they might disagree.

I’m not sure any of these are egregious enough on their own (or even collectively) to say that he really shilled these guys beyond what was appropriate. Spiller’s a bit curious, but he IS supremely talented (stuck in Buffalo or not).

by Aphilfan on Oct 12, 2010 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Griffen’s the most egregious offender, but he was a good collegiate pass rusher with questionable character (if I remember correctly). Sometimes teams will take chances on the skill, other times they won’t. This time they didn’t.

To be honest, I saw Griffen and I was very unimpressed by his pass-rushing. He was drafted on pure athleticism, not so much concrete accomplishments. Not exactly a good mix, and he dropped 2-3 rounds because teams saw other players who had both athleticism and on-field accomplishments.

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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 12, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I hear you, and agree that these 5 prospects are hardly enough proof. Still, it’s 5 of 5, and when you combine that with Luchs’ anecdotes about Kiper and Wichard, it’s enough to make me wonder.

by JimmyK on Oct 12, 2010 11:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Every analyst overrates a prospect though and like I said earlier he was only off by a couple picks on 3 of them. Take Clausen for instance the only guy down on him going into the draft was McShay and I don’t see anybody else getting flack for being wrong about him.

by The Legend on Oct 13, 2010 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Griffen was over ranked by everyone.

by Clyde Simmons on Oct 13, 2010 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Is it really that important how Kiper rates the draft picks, do NFL GM’s really tune into everything Kiper says like his word is gold. I mean it doesn’t seem like a big deal to me what Kiper says I always believed franchises made their own decisions and listened to their own scouts. I didn’t think it mattered that much where Kiper rates draft prospects, it’s not like GM’s just wait on Kiper and say that is our draft board and we’re going with it.

by fhqwagads on Oct 12, 2010 11:06 PM EDT reply actions

Agree 100%. GM’s couldn’t possibly care less how Kiper rates his board. He’s a very knowledgeable analyst, but he’s really only relevant for the fans.

But if you’re a college kid and some agent is pitching you on why you should sign with him, and he gets this larger than life personality on the phone that says you’re the best player in the draft at your position, it’s a huge ego boost. These kids are highly impressionable, and if Mel Kiper says they’re a top 10 pick, they’re going to believe him. That’s the scumbag move here.

by JimmyK on Oct 12, 2010 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions

…if he did indeed partipate in that manner as the SI article indicates, that is.

by JimmyK on Oct 12, 2010 11:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I'm glad someone made this point, because I was going to ...

… I originally got the sense that this implies that GMs care about what Kiper thinks. And while they probably do not, since they have more access to the actual prospects than anyone could actually want, Kiper does influence public perception, and public perception does influence whether or not GMs keep their jobs, and so forth.

Part of me thinks people have begun to hate Kiper mostly for how big he’s gotten, and if he was still this cool, underground stat geek who only you and your friends knew about, he’d be cooler.

But I also wouldn’t be surprised if most everything scuzzy in the SI article is true or fairly close to it.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on Oct 13, 2010 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I have always hated his hair and his smug “better-than-thou” attitude. Viva McShay!

Got rational behavior? ...apparently not.
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by DeSean10 on Oct 12, 2010 11:33 PM EDT reply actions

haha...

His hair makes him look like Dracula. He’s a schmuck.

by 92-74-99-96 on Oct 13, 2010 5:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

He always reminded me of...

Eddie Munster…

by Sparki on Oct 13, 2010 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions

There are no D3 schools in North Dakota

That’s NAIA country. For the record.

/missing the point

Ask Kiper about a guard from some little D3 school in North Dakota,

Carry on.

Secretary of State for BGN aka "Most diplomatic man on this site," as appointed by Talon Talent
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on Oct 13, 2010 12:03 AM EDT reply actions

I always thought he was an idiot. Now I know he is just an asshole.

by Clyde Simmons on Oct 13, 2010 7:07 AM EDT reply actions

I just wonder how big a deal it is?

… I mean doesn’t (or shouldn’t) each team have their own draftnik? So they can independently value players and set up their own draft order fit for their needs and whatnot?

Kiper is the espn & the watching fan’s draft guru, the lists he throws up on the screen are more for show to get us, the watcher hyped up about Jimmy Clausen & Taylor Mays… When Philly traded up in the first, he’s the one that made us get eagerly excited bout Earl Thomas… But the Eagles FO with their own draft board had Graham circled. He probably had us excited that Mays was still available when the Eagles FO went with Allen.

If an Agent and Kiper are in cahoots what how much does it really matter to the teams that do their own homework? Maybe some teams actually rely on Kipers draft board.. but just like those kids that would read answers over my shoulder during an english test, It was bound to bite them in the ass eventually…

BTW… after reading the random thoughts post the other day… how many times has Dallas followed Kiper’s advice? Or are they just horrible draft analysts?

by Sparki on Oct 13, 2010 8:32 AM EDT reply actions

I agree

I don’t think what Kiper/McShay and other draft analysts say/do really has an impact on an NFL franchise’s draft strategy. It’s really more for TV and the casual fan.

Kiper will likely lose a bit of credibility amongst fans, but amongst NFL franchises it’s inconsequential.

I doubt a team would really hinge their draft strategy on TV guys’ choices. It’s like asking Miss Cleo how to invest your money.

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by alcatraz0109 on Oct 13, 2010 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah I think you hit the nail on the head. Most of this does not matter in the long run, since Kiper has no influence on the teams drafting.

The Mikan Drill

by JoshuaR on Oct 13, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Kiper is a reporter of sorts

And reporters should avoid this kind of conflict of interest and if Wichard was giving Kiper kickbacks, then that is a clear conflict. That it doesn’t matter, as such, is irrelevant. If there is a murder committed in Seattle tonight it has no bearing on my life at all but I expect the reporter to provide an honest, objective story. Anything less is a disservice to your audience and a violation of ethics.

by Tracer Bullet on Oct 13, 2010 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

I see what your saying about news reporters

But he’s not a news reporter. He’s at best a sports analyst, but at the core he’s there to entertain the fan and sell us on dreams of the next crop of athletes that may come to our team… he’s there to advertise sports through ESPN… a targeted hype machine. He sells hype, & if a tv personality pitches a product, they get paid…

by Sparki on Oct 13, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks for the links

not that I’m surprised but it was a really great read. I wish people would pay my way out of bills just to hang out with them and go to Vegas. Its kinda sad about the living conditions on some of the athlete’s families and all, but as the article infers, its not like these kids are dumb and dont know about how to work the system. Look how many got paid off and still were taking money from multiple agents. I guarantee you, there have been slews of college atheletes that were cash-millionaires before they even got signed. Shit, wasn’t it Lebron’s mom that bought a Hummer based on credit that her son was going to be a superstar?These people can’t wait to get paid

That being said, that youtube video really just made my morning LOL

by RucanorX on Oct 13, 2010 9:20 AM EDT reply actions

I thought all the over hype from Mel regarding Jimmy Clausen was just a Notre Damn bias (he’s always seemed like an Irish jock sniffer to me) but now I know it was because he was getting paid for all the bs he was spinning. Makes sense to me. I never understood what Mel saw in Clausen and now we know it was just dollar signs. F Mel Kiper. Super Douche.

Loooooook here brotha'.....who you jivein' with that Cosmic Debris!!!???

by OkieEagle on Oct 13, 2010 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

That article was great

It was great inside look at the recruiting business. Its something everybody should read.

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by bdawk4ever on Oct 13, 2010 3:19 PM EDT reply actions

We're getting Big board and Mock drafts confused

In a Big Board: He’s ranking the best overall talent. Where Jimmy Clausen might have 4th highest potential, but because he’s a quarterback and 95% of the teams don’t need a QB, or need one that much as they need a FS for instance, he won’t get drafted that high. Think back to 2005 when Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers were in the draft. Both top 10 on the big board, Alex Smith #1 pick, Aaron Rodgers #24. This isn’t conspiracy with Aaron Rodgers, no one wanted a QB until Green Bay selected him at #24.

In a mock draft: He’s ranking where the players will go based on who’s available, what’s needed by who. One reason why these are so inacurate is that over the course of a single round there’s double digit trades, and if one team goes in a different direction then the mocker thinks, then all else is skewed.

by stash600 on Oct 14, 2010 6:34 PM EDT reply actions