Worst 4th Down Decision in 2008

by cavortingEagle on Sep 9, 2009 6:22 PM EDT

Advanced NFL Stats is a tremendous website for nerds who find the numbers behind the game interesting. The author doesn't typically post on a daily basis, but when he does the post is usually thought provoking. I check his site about once per week. Today I stumbled upon this gem where Andy's decision to punt the ball back to Cincinatti late in the game is derided as the worst 4th down decision of the year. According to the author's methodology, giving Cincy the ball back with so much time left in the game gave Cincinatti almost a 1 in 3 chance of pulling out the game, whereas converting the 4th and 1 would have given the Birds about a 60 percent chance to pull the game out in regulation (they only would have needed another 15 yards for a long FG)...

The author's methodology for determining win probability is fairly sound and well documented (that last link is not for the faint of heart). It's also something which can be evaluated on a play by play basis and the site provides in game win probabilities for some (all?) games during the acutal game.

Knowing what we know now, playing for the draw worked just fine, but at the time we all would have liked to have seen a little more aggression. Would you have punted, or gone for it with the game on the line in the fourth quarter?

Poll

The situation is: 4th and 1. The game is tied. You're on your own 49 and there is only one minute and fifty six seconds left in the game. Do you

Punt, with the confidence that Sav can pin the opposing team deep?

25 votes

Go for it? Give it to Buck, sneak Don or knowing Andy toss a quick swing pass?

74 votes

Run screaming and thank the stars you don't have to make decisions like this in your line of work?

12 votes

111 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

fuck

do not remind me of this .. i went to this fuckin game .. cincy is fuckin far.. ugh it was def an eventfull weekend .. btw anyone ever here of a maijer? its like a walmart .. we got to the hotel and were askin where to get stuff and the lady was like go to maijer .. and i was like what the fuck is that .. its actually pretty nice .. a better walmart .. suprised there not big around here .. also i went to st louis and my boy ordered a yuengling and the dude was like what the hell is that lol

by jack is better than asante on Sep 9, 2009 6:28 PM EDT reply actions

meijer is good stuff

it’s big around here (central/southern IL)

by eagleyosh on Sep 9, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions

yea

im in nj.. i never even seen one before that lol

by jack is better than asante on Sep 9, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks for sharing???

Jim Johnson 1941-2009

"The 0-2 pitch, swing and a miss! STRUCK HIM OUT! The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 World Champions of baseball! And let the city celebrate! " - Harry Kalas 1936-2009

by Whodie126 on Sep 10, 2009 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions

reid always does that

and its always cost us

the playoff game in new orleans, less than 2 mins left, ball on the 50, 4th and 1, he punted and we lost

you play to win the game!

RIP JJ & HK
Let the future judge Michael Vick

by BadCo'09 on Sep 9, 2009 7:27 PM EDT reply actions

Nice Herm.

insert – with NO running at will – too…
AR’s offense is ostensibly “aggressive”, but his decisions in situations like that one seem virtually always super conservative. I’m going to try and track the PxP throughout the season (instead of trying to catch up half way through) in an Access database and I’ll be real interested to watch AR in 4th and Short…

by cavortingEagle on Sep 9, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions

New Orleans

Maybe I’m misremembering. Didn’t Reid go for it on fourth and one, convert, but have it called back because of holding or something. Maybe he should have went for it again anyway, but there’s a big difference between 4th and 1 and 4th and 11

by djubirds on Sep 10, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Bad Memory

It was 4th and 10, and Reid went for it and it was completed to Baskett for a first down, but then called back by the refs for some phantom false start on Scott Young that somehow wasn’t called fast enough to stop the play from occurring. (Repeat after me, NFL games are not fixed by the refs and NFL, NFL games are not fixed by the refs and the NFL …) Reid then punted on 4th and 15.

by Andrew B on Sep 10, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ve always favored “going for it” in those situations. Is it more likely that your offense can gain a yard or two or that your defense can stop the opposition from going 10 yards in 3 pays? Especially in late game situations where you may have to burn timeouts just to get the ball back.

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by JasonB on Sep 10, 2009 3:24 AM EDT reply actions

I’ve got to admit, though, I didn’t have a whole lot of confidence in the Eagles to pick up that yard. The way they were playing that game? And after failing on 4th and 1 to end the Giants game the previous week?

In the end, that tie (vs a loss) was the difference in the Eagles getting into the playoffs, wasn’t it?

Still — I wish they were better in short yardage last season and could have just picked it up at will.

I wonder if I can bill Jeff Lurie and Peter Angelos for the years of therapy their teams are going to put me through.

by BrianS on Sep 10, 2009 8:17 AM EDT reply actions

I will take Number 5 on a sneak for a year all day long … I would never punt on 4th and 1 with McNabb under center.

Jim Johnson 1941-2009

"The 0-2 pitch, swing and a miss! STRUCK HIM OUT! The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 World Champions of baseball! And let the city celebrate! " - Harry Kalas 1936-2009

by Whodie126 on Sep 10, 2009 9:13 AM EDT reply actions