Expect the Unexpected

I'll begin by stating the obvious: Andy Reid very seldom does what others say he is going to do when it comes to the draft.  The Eagles may very well be the most difficult team to gauge on draft day.  Which is why I think that making predictions about whom they will select is ultimately a lesson in futility.  The only predictable thing about this team on draft day is its unpredictability; it's pure guesswork at this point.  Two years ago, who could have predicted that they would trade out of the first round to take a quarterback in the second round as their first pick?  Who could have guessed that they would do the same thing the following year, this time taking a defensive tackle first?  Under the Reid/Lurie/Banner triumvirate, the demands of the fans have come a very distant second to the designs of the front office...which isn't always a bad thing, I suppose.  During the 1999 draft, fans were swinging from the rafters, howling for Andy to take Ricky Williams...and went batshit when he took Donovan McNabb.  This is proof we don't always know what we're talking about.

But the draft itself is pure guesswork as well.  That's why there's such a thing as busts.  Many thought Ryan Leaf should have gone before Peyton Manning...look how that turned out.  Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round, 199th overall...duds may come from any round, but so can studs. 

My point is that we shouldn't cling to certain players we think the Eagles SHOULD take...what Mel Kiper thinks the Eagles need is different from what Andy thinks.  So when nearly every mock draft I've seen has us taking a running back in the first round, I become skeptical.  None of you need to be reminded of this, but Andy does not place a ton of emphasis on the run.  Which is why none of us should be surprised if he decides to take a running back in later rounds, one that could convert on third down for much less money than someone like Knowshon Moreno would command.  It would not surprise me at all to see the team pick up another pass rusher; nor would it be shocking to see them draft another cornerback to add depth to the secondary.  The sexy picks are not what this team is after.  Sure, we'd love to see them draft a big, badass left tackle or a stud tight end or even...gasp...a number one receiver.  But I think Andy, for the most part, is not enamoured of the idea of making rookies starters and expecting them to contribute right away...ESPECIALLY on the offensive line.  There have been very few exceptions to this (Shawn Andrews, DeSean Jackson are two), but a rookie who can make starter right away AND contribute is a rare thing in this league.  We must remember that the draft is meant for building future success rather than providing instant gratification.

Which brings me to trades.  Of course, many of us would welcome a draft-day trade that would bring someone like Anquan Boldin to town.  But that's not really Andy's style either.  He prefers to hoard picks, retaining as many as possible to draft more players each year...I guess he figures that the more players he picks, the better the odds are that he will get a future starter out of the bunch.  I'm not ruling anything out, but some folks need to relax on their claims that Philly has too many picks and too much money under the cap to not make something explosive happen on draft day.

So, friends, adhere not to mock drafts or the opinions of self-proclaimed draft gurus...be patient, and wait to see what the team will do.  Because it's a lot easier to curb expectations and wait things out than to tune in to the draft expecting a certain player to be chosen, and be disappointed if it doesn't happen.  The draft will be here soon enough...and then we'll know.