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Do we have a number one wide receiver?

In recent weeks, we've heard the cries of the need for a number one wide receiver.  The argument is that it would cure our red zone woes, and that although Desean Jackson has been great, he isn't the true number one wide receiver we have been looking for.  I am hear not to argue against acquiring one of these big, physical wide receivers.  Rather, I am hear to question whether or not we should be saying we need a true number one...looking at the stats, it's possible to conclude we have one already.  The most definite conclusion though is that we need more time to determine if our wonderboy rookie has what it takes to be a number one. 

Star-divide

First, lets get some ground rule set.  I took each players stats from their "breakout season" as I saw it.  for some, it was their rookie year, for others it was second, and for housh, it was his 4th.  here are the players and their respective breakout seasons

Jackson-rookie year

Smith- second year

Owens- second year

Boldin-rookie

Fitzgerald-rookie

Houshmandzahdeh-4th

Moss-rookie

Harrison-rookie

all of them started at least 11 games in their breakout season, except for jerry rice who apparently started four (according to pro-football-reference.com) but still had monstrous stats.

So lets check out their distribution in total yards...

3371475800_19fd7570e6_medium

As can be seen...Jackson's rookie campaign in terms of total yards is some pretty good company.  Steve Smith, who is the same size receiver, had a few less yards, but a similar breakout campaign.  Noteably, Jackson beat our boldin and harrison and was narrowly beat by owens, rice and housh.  boldin and moss were clearly etter in their rookie campaigns, but jackson undoubtedly has nice breakout season company. 

 

Next, let's take a look at receptions in their breakout seasons. 

3371475830_e422590288_medium

Jackson inches out smith, owens, fitz, and rice, and is in the same neighborhood as moss and harrison.  boldin once again is high and above, but jackson isn't doing too bad in his company. 

 

Now let's look at something Desean really needs to do better on if he is to be considered a number one receiver:  TDS

3370654439_79dfed90b9_medium

Jackson is at the bottom of that list, but isn't out of range of smith, rice and housh.  don't forget also this isn't always a rookie campaign as a breakout campaign.  This is something that needs to be worked on if he wants to satisfy the role as a number one receiver, but looking at jerry rice, who is known as one of the best WRs of all time, improved to 15 TDs the next year.  With this in mind, lets remember jackson has plenty of time to grow.  

 

Finally, lets look at yards/reception

3370654355_f9f9861d16_medium

Once again, jackson is in the range of some good company.  He beat boldin, fitz, housh, and harrison, and is in the range of owens and smith.  

 

So all together, we have the makings of an excellent receiver on our hands...potentially.  It goes without saying that jackson could and should improve from his rookie campaign, but players can also take a step back.  Looking at the numbers, I think we can all say that we have an excellent young WR who is in the company of some of the greats in the league.  If there is one thing he needs to work on it's definately his TD numbers, but hopefully that will come with time.  Once again, the point of this post is not to suggest that we dont' need a big, physical wide receiver.  It's to question whether or not we have a number one already.  Number one doesn't always mean a big guy.  I'm hoping he develops next year into the one of the best in the league.  His small size will be a disadvantage to him, but obviously, he has all the tools required to be a force to reckon with.


 


 


 

 

 

 

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wow

Way to take the time to put that together that’s some impressive research. My only worry is are all of the receivers truly comparable. There are so many statistics that also should go into it, like targets, drops, %‘s etc. But either way I applaud your effort and I appreciate where you are going with it. I think Desean will be a stud WR in the mold more of Steve Smith than someone that is a huge redzone threat like Moss or Fitz. It’s too early to tell, but I think Desean has a great future ahead of him where depending on who is lined up along the line with him can determine if he’s a true #1. Plus I really believe the offense dictates if a true number one (which many will argue doesn’t have a real definition of what makes one.) is possible.

"Lets get one thing straight, the only reason you are conscious right now is because I don't feel like carrying you." - Jack Bauer

"Consequences, Schmonsequences, as long as I'm rich." - Daffy Duck

by Badd on Mar 20, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yah

i tried to find the targets and percentages and such, but wasn’t really able to find it easily so i figured i’d just go with this. i gave the comparison with smith because, as you said, he’s a similar mold. hopefully he pans out just as well as smith does, but doesn’t punch any teammates

by eagleyosh on Mar 21, 2009 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

#1 wr

 we dont need the prototypical #1 wr that everyone is screaming for… we can find a possession wr in this draft, end the bs about boldin and edwards… we’ve got our game changer in jax, a compliment to him would be nice…

like badd said, those #‘s look nice but there’s a lot more to consider, nice job on all that though…

anyone see we brought this kid in for a private wo? looks to be a nice late round kr..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNFsIp26RlY

"Eagles fans are a passionate group who love their team," said McNabb, "if not the actual players. It's not like winning a Super Bowl before the first month of the season is the hardest thing they've ever asked of me. That'd be all those times they asked me to go kill myself."

by greenbean#twoOH on Mar 20, 2009 6:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

first of all

NICE POST. Really interesting.

The definition of a true number is difficult to define. In my mind it comes down to consistency. DeSean had a great rookie year, but his second half (28 catches, 387 yards) was not what I would call number 1 worthy. I think its also difficult to make him our number one because we want him returning punts, which few number 1s do, so he has to miss plays and is worn down from that. After watching Big Red trot out disaster after disaster in the last few years, we need to have DeSean returning punts.

Steve Smith is a freak. DeSean is in his mold, but the way Smith goes up to get balls and continuosly beats double teams is nasty. I think DeSean is great, but to reach Smith’s level is almost too much to ask or expect.

What also makes this a great post is that eagleyosh is bringing up a fresh point, do we already have a #1? I think it would be great to just talk about that because we have already talked about our need or lack or need for one ad nauseam.

Happy hour time.

www.okupy.com

by royboy on Mar 20, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

but his second half (28 catches, 387 yards) was not what I would call number 1 worthy

Let’s also remember Curtis returned … hurting Jacksons targets and also our offense struggled in a lot of those games.

"I need to do a better job of putting players in the right position to perennially come up short of expectations"

by Whodie126 on Mar 20, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought this was going to be one of the many boldin posts but I am happily surprised. I think the struggles in the passing game last year weren’t due to the lack of a “number one” receiver, but rather the combination of an inconsistent run game and injuries. I think curtis’ injury specifically slowed down the passing game. If we can stay healthy and maybe pick up a mid to late round WR in the draft to add depth along with another running back to help that aspect of the offense we’ll be fine.

"My worst breakup was with Stacy...It was on a Sunday, we were reading the paper and I said 'I think the Eagles can clinch the NFC East' she looked up and told me it was over." -Kevin from 'The Office"

by DiLe47 on Mar 20, 2009 7:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

For the record...

…DeSean predicted that he would get 1000 receiving yards and 10 TDs next year, or something like that.

by ajay on Mar 20, 2009 7:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice post

Yeah, as mentioned there are other things to consider. Another would be who else is in the receiving corps. I was really impressed how well DeSean did early in the season when we had some guys banged up and he was counted on.

But we have an offense that spreads the ball around, save for 2004. The way we run things we really could get by with two solid number twos, and a good number three, which I think is what we have right now at least.

I say be happy with what we have, and draft someone in the middle rounds to come in and compete.

by MRPH on Mar 20, 2009 7:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

we still spread the ball around in 04 … Owens had 77 receptions (same as Curtis did in 07) and Westbrook had 73, Lewis/Smith were around 30 each and Pinkston had 36, First down Freddie (lol) had 22.

"I need to do a better job of putting players in the right position to perennially come up short of expectations"

by Whodie126 on Mar 20, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I know

I was focusing on just the WRs, should have qualified that.

by MRPH on Mar 20, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

It just seems like Owens got the ball more than others because he had such gawdy individual stats (14 Tds)

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Mar 20, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

The TDs stand out to ….. probably makes it seem like they were always going to him.

by MRPH on Mar 20, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

very nice post...

i would like to think desean is going to have a great career, but his small size concerns me. he is a burner and a tremendous deep threat, but he won’t win many balls or have a lot of redzone success. i don’t necessarily think a #1 receiver is our top priority (although i wouldn’t mind if we found a way to get boldin), but a big guy with good hands could really complement the passing game. that big guy could come in the form of a tough tight end or even weaver for all we know. we’ll see.

by awd777 on Mar 20, 2009 7:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

also don't forget

You could say that he has 3 touchdowns this season but he lost the third one (Dallas early celebration haha).

OT: I would say we are in more of a need big physical starting receiver. I think with DeSean and a guy like that we could do very well. I’m not personally a fan of Kevin Curtis(Many drops, not very physical, too similar to DeSean but doesn’t get down field as often, is more of a 3rd reciever, ect. ect.)

by homestar2281 on Mar 20, 2009 8:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would say we are in more of a need big physical starting receiver

meh Curtis caught as many fade routes in the end zone as Baskett did last year. Steve Smith is a physical receiver and he doesn’t have great size.

"I need to do a better job of putting players in the right position to perennially come up short of expectations"

by Whodie126 on Mar 20, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I know what your saying

I wasn’t really talking about the fade route when I was saying big and physical. and I’m not trying to say Curtis should be physical like like Steve Smith I think that DeSean is similar to Smith but I don’t think he could be physical like Smith either. I just want a guy that if Donovan needs to or wants to throw it up to him he could not only compete for the ball but you would feel like he has a really good chance to come down with it most of the time. I know that guys like that are rare but I just think thats the only real complaint I could have with our recivers.

by homestar2281 on Mar 21, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

THANK YOU

I have been saying this in much simpler words for a while now. Thanks for backing my argument up with some facts.

by The Chum on Mar 20, 2009 8:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

very well put together but i would have to agree with whodie126 i like curtis and his ability he had a quit year but he was hurt most of it …i think hes going to have a great year

by fly eagles fly on Mar 20, 2009 8:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

you made a good point in all of this and really put a lot of effort into this. but one thing you didnt say that i was sort of thinking. yes he is the big play type of player, but he really didnt have many big game changing plays that i can remember last year. other than against the cards in the nfc championship game, and his nasty punt return. he definitly needs to step up in the terms of being the game changer with touchdowns and big plays.

this was real good, props brother.

by bigd81 on Mar 20, 2009 8:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

not sold

First – I like our receiveing corps okay. And I like Jackson. He’s a playmaker – as a receiver, as a returner, and, I think, as a runner.

But – It seems to me that a defense can take him away and that he is not a red zone threat. I’m not being critical, but not many receivers become pro-bowlers at his size and I don’t think he’s going to get there as a receiver.

So, no, I don’t believe that he’s a number one. There are at least twenty guys out there with more catches, at least thirty with a higher catch percentage, probably fifty with more touchdowns. To be a number one, you’d have to be head and shoulders above Kevin Curtis and I’m withholding judgment as to whether he is.

Do I think the Eagles could use a number one guy? Sure, it would be nice, but I don’t think they need one provided they can figure out another way to get into the end zone. And with the number of pressing needs they have, I think they should go in another direction (specifically – running back).

And I agree with those who say that size matters. Look at the touchdown chart. Re-order it from the shortest guys to the tallest (Smith, Jackson, Harrison, Housh, Boldin, Owens, Fitzgerald, and Moss). You will see a clear trend (and Jackson is on the wrong end of it).

by dave in san mateo on Mar 20, 2009 8:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

well...

my conclusions from this data same to be the same as yours mostly…I tried to say that I don’t mind adding a WR, but the question is whether or not to call him a number 1. I think a big, physical WR is what we’re looking for to help out in the red zone.

the second part…my conclusion was partially that we need more time to figure out what desean is. I think he has the tools to be a number 1. steve smith, despite his size, had 12 TDs one year. I know it’s unlikely he’ll ever get to that ridiculous number of 23 moss got to, but that’s where the big dude would come in. size will weigh him down, but personally…if he gets up there in yards and yards/reception and yards/attempt, i don’t mind having someone else come in near the end zone to mop up.

by eagleyosh on Mar 21, 2009 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

desean jackson is the shit !!! i hope he only gets better
Photobucket

When I look at this team, I still don't feel as though we are very far away, we still have to work hard and do the things we are capable of, but we do have the chance to get back and come back strong." -Brian Westbrook-

by EAGLE_MAN71 on Mar 21, 2009 2:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

All last preseason the rage was West, Buck, Booker.

I think, If we have Westy, Knowshon or Brown or …. and Weaver in the Backfield, Defenses won’t sit back and wait for the inevitable pass. Our receivers will be on man coverage. GOOD ODDS FOR ANY SPARTAN! The Redskins even said, Gee wonder what they’re gonna do….hmmmm, Pass. Duh. Shocker, we lost.

Plus if we get our probowl Lineman back for a descent run block. Whew, I love the thought of the Great wall of Andrews. TM, I’m trademarking that. :)

by EagleGreeninMD on Mar 21, 2009 10:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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