Looking back at the preseason - Should we have traded for Tony Gonzalez?
by JimmyK on Dec 5, 2009 12:29 PM EST
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PrintThis past offseason the rebuilding Kansas City Chiefs were auctioning off their best player, Tony Gonzalez, to the highest bidder. The highest bidder turned out to be the Atlanta Falcons, who surrendered their 2nd round pick in 2010. At the time, I felt the Eagles made an enormous mistake by not making a more aggressive move to obtain Gonzalez, but the emergence of Brent Celek has softened my stance a bit. Since we're playing the team that outbid us for Gonzalez's services, let's take a look back and analyze if the Eagles should have traded for Gonzalez or not...
Before we get into it lets first take a look at Tony Gonzalez's credentials...
- Age - 33
- 10 consecutive Pro Bowl selections from 1999 through 2008
- 6 First-Team All Pro selections
- 3 Second-Team All Pro selections
- Career stats (through 2008 - not including this season) - 916 catches, 10,940 yards, 76 TD. Over 12 seasons in the league, that averages out to 76 catches, 911 yards, and 6+ TD's per season.
- This season so far - 61 catches, 666 yards, 5 TD (projected over 16 games that's 89 catches, 969 yards, 7 TD, which is better than his career averages)
- Amazing durability - 12+ seasons, 201 games played, a grand total of TWO games missed.
- Mistake-free - 6 career fumbles, 1 in the past 10 seasons.
- Widely regarded as an exceptional leader and teammate.
- In my opinion, despite some TE's having better statistical seasons (see Antonio Gates) he's still the best TE in the league, and easily the best TE in the history of the NFL.
The Age Concern...
"He's too old. He only has a few years left."
Without question, 33-year-olds typically start to see a decline in their games. However, in Gonzalez's case, I just don't see any evidence of him slowing down at all. Is he bound to slow down eventually? Sure, but it hasn't even come close to happening yet. His past 5 seasons...
2005 - 78 catches, 905 yards, 2 TD
2006 - 73 catches, 900 yards, 5 TD
2007 - 99 catches, 1,172 yards, 5 TD
2008 - 96 catches, 1,058 yards, 10 TD
2009 - 89 catches, 969 yards, 7 TD (projected)
The argument could be made that Gonzalez has continued to get even better with age.
Why would Gonzo in Philly have made sense?
- Philly's Red Zone and Short-Yardage Woes - You can probably count on one hand the number of skill position players you'd rather have on your team in the red zone or in short yardage situations over Tony Gonzalez. Not to oversimplify it, but when you're a team that struggles in 2 very specific areas that a single player can drastically help fix, it just makes sense to go get that player if he's available, right?
- The ages of our "future" at the WR and TE positions - Jackson (turned 23 on Tuesday), Maclin (21), Avant (26), Celek (24). A guy like Gonzalez could have been an outstanding role model for the kids.
- This is a team that can win... right now. If you're the Cleveland Browns, you're not trading for a 33 year old. But if you're Philly, a team that is already very young and very talented, you absolutely consider any option that will improve your chances of winning a Super Bowl.
How valuable are 2nd round picks?
Well, you can get this...
But you can also get this...
So let's assume a 2010 2nd round pick would have gotten Tony Gonzalez, maybe also having to add something like a 6th rounder if the Chiefs felt that the Eagles would most likely be picking later than the Falcons in the 2010 draft. Doing this of course assumes Atlanta wouldn't just continue to up their offer, but for the sake of debating this, let's just assume a 2 and a 6 gets Tony Gonzalez.
With that established, let's take a look at all of the (15) 2nd round picks in the Andy Reid era, and decide if you'd rather have that player for X number of years, or 3-4 years of Tony Gonzalez.
2009 - LeSean McCoy - McCoy
2008 - Trevor Laws - I'll be kind to Laws, and call this one "To Be Determined."
2008 - DeSean Jackson - Jackson
2007 - Kevin Kolb - Debatable. If I'm a GM, I'd take the promise of Kolb.
2007 - Victor Abiamiri - I think at this point, it's fair to say Gonzalez.
2006 - Winston Justice - Really tough call here. Let's call this "TBD."
2005 - Reggie Brown - Gonzalez
2005 - Matt McCoy - Gonzalez
2003 - LJ Smith - Gonzalez
2002 - Michael Lewis - Gonzalez
2002 - Sheldon Brown - Brown
2001 - Quinton Caver - Gonzalez
2000 - Todd Pinkston - Gonzalez
2000 - Bobbie Williams - Gonzalez
1999 - Barry Gardner - Gonzalez
In recent years, 2nd round picks have been very productive and/or show a lot of promise, but historically, it's an understatement to say that you're certainly not assured to get a quality player.
- (9) Gonzalez - Of the (15) 2nd round picks of the Andy Reid era, anyone would clearly take 3-4 years of Tony Gonzalez over 9 of those players.
- (3) The pick - In only 3 cases (Jackson, McCoy, Brown), the clear decision would be to keep the player.
- (3) Close call - In 2 other cases (Kolb and Justice), it's debatable, and in one case (Laws), I'm being kind and saying "TBD."
The emergence of Brent Celek
2009 - 54 catches, 601 yards, 5 TD, projected over a 16 game season, that's 79 catches, 874 yards, 7 TD
Celek has exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, has put together a Pro Bowl worthy season so far, and earned a shiny new contract extension worth $11 million in guarantees and up to $33 million should the Eagles retain his services for the duration of the contract. Questions to consider regarding Celek though...
The bad question...
- Could the presence of Gonzalez have stunted Celek's growth?
The good questions...
- How could teams defend an offense that could put weapons such as Tony Gonzalez, Brent Celek, Leonard Weaver, Westbrook/McCoy, and Jackson on the field one play, and then a combo of Jackson, Westbrook/McCoy, Maclin, Avant, and Gonzalez the very next play? The mismatches an Offensive Coordinator could create would be endless.
- How much of an upgrade would Gonzalez be over Celek? How much of an upgrade would Celek be over Alex Smith?
- Celek's dedication to watching tape of Jason Witten was highly publicized after having signed his contract extension. How would Celek benefit from watching the best TE in the history of the game in person every day?
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I was all set to say you should have pulled the trigger for Gonzales
but impeding Celek progression makes it a tough call.
I guess purely from a GM perspective you do whatever it takes to make your team better and Gonzales certainly does that. McNabb is better, Mac n Jac are better, and suddenly there is more space for your running game. Last time your FO pulled a trigger on a big trade you made the SB.
I have to say I really like Celek and watching Gonzales couldnt have hurt him but his game will be much closer to Wittens game. Unless you have Gonzales or Gates freaky athletism better go with Witten.
KICK ASS every day!!!
I sure as hell would have traded the 2nd then....
but after Celek’s emergence, we don’t need another stud tight end. The Eagles rarely pass to their No.2 Tight End(even if they are pretty good like Smith). Tony G would have definitely slowed down Celek’s progress. Also with the holes on this team, we need that second round pick right now.
Andy Reid is 43-5 when running the ball at least 30 times in a game( Ray Diddy on Eagles Post Game Live after Bears Victory)
There's always a little detail that I have in my head, but forget to add in my posts...
And this time it was the number of picks we’ll have in 2010. Here they are…
- 1st round
- 2nd round (hypothetically traded to the Chiefs for Gonzo)
- 3rd round
- 3rd round (from Seattle)
- 4th round
- possibly another 4th round (from the Jets in the Lito Sheppard trade)
- 5th round
- 5th round (from New Orleans)
- 6th round (from Indy)
- Compensatory picks?
Even if we had traded the 2nd rounder, we’d still be left with an absolute minimum of 7 picks, plus possibly a 4 for the Lito deal, and possibly a compensatory pick or 2 for all the free agents we lost this past offseason.
Plus, you mention “holes,” and as our current depth chart stands we certainly have a few. However, assuming the majority of our injured players come back healthy next season, I just don’t see any glaring, gaping holes (at least no more than any other team, including the great ones).
No way I would trade a 2nd for Gonzalez.
Celek is putting up pretty close numbers to him and we would have never gotten McCoy and Ingram would have never been drafted by us( yes he tore his acl, but i think he will be a great TE in the future.)
If Life Gives You Lemons, Just Say FUCK IT and Bail.
we would have never gotten McCoy
It wasn’t last year’s 2. It would have been a 2 in 2010 – At least that’s what Atlanta traded for him. So assuming we would have traded our 2010 2nd rounder, we’d still have LeSean McCoy. However, your point about them likely not drafting Ingram is probably true, although they would have used that pick on another player.
You dont know....
Gonzo is about twice as good as Celek…..
Celek c+/b-
Gonzo a/a-
why wouldnt you want him again?
Gonzalez always draws double coverage. TG consistently catches balls in traffic for key 1st downs and TD’s. With 2x defenders on the TE, Jackson, Avant, and Maclin would be guaranteed single coverage, leading to more TD’s. Normally at least one LB and a safety are on Gonzo, so McCoy would find more running more as would McNabb or Vick if they run. TG has been used as a lead blocker on runs up the middle off motion shifts, and contributes a lot to the run game.
Celek has been great this year, so the Eagles are good at the position. However, Celek gets open and makes grabs mostly as a check down when defenses double on Jackson and other WR’s. and leave Celek with single coverage. That is the missing dynamic. Gonzo’s rep forces defenses to key on him, giving more chances to all the other weapons.
Another factor is that no one knew Celek would bust out with this stellar year at the time the trade option was available. Eagles look good now and for the future with Celek, but no one knew for sure prior to the season.
Finally, there is the clutch factor in the late season and the playoffs in 2009. On 3rd or 4th down who would you most trust to make one catch with the game on the line?
Gonzalez
Celek
Jackson
Maclin
McCoy
Avant
Westbrook
Curtis
I would select TG, with Westbrook a close 2nd if healthy.
But they all have a lot of talent, and could pull it off in crunch time.
Finally!!!
Someone who knows what there talking about!
No one wants to admitt it…. TG is better than Celek way past a 2nd rounder.
Celek’s progression has made this a moot point for me. The TE position isn’t an issue, but there are positions that will need to be addressed that the 2nd round pick will be valuable for.
Like a DE or LB or if I had my wish, Jermaine Gresham.
If Life Gives You Lemons, Just Say FUCK IT and Bail.
I want another strong DE to compliment Trent Cole so badly. That should be a top priority in the draft.
"THIS IS NOT COLLEGE NO MORE. THIS IS THE BIG MAN SPORT." ~Crazy Lady on BGN forums
by southjersey89 on Dec 5, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
Its all were missing...
I would give a second rounder for Peppers, the guys still a beast when he wants to be…
Its kinda hard when you play for J. Fox, that guys one of the worst locker room coaches of all time not to mention they suck!
Last Yr Certainly!!
But Now No way……Celek has done a good a job as any other TE in the League………Hopefuly Ingram is as Good as projected and is able to compliment him next year. I agree that the defense should be addressed in Next years draft. We need another DE to compliment Cole and another LB and Perhaps a safety depending what happens with Jones and Macho….
I don't think Ingram's eligible...
he’s only a Soph.
by eaglemaniac814 on Dec 6, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
Im going against the grain here a little bit...
I am glad we didnt get him. We have a young probowl caliber TE who is 6th or 7th in the league maybe even higher..
I take a young guy who’s a little bit behind Gonzo on this one for promise alone.
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
Im going to say no
As bad as we’ve been on 2nd round picks in recent years we still need to build this team through the draft. Celek is a beast and I think our red zone woes will be fixed at some point
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
Think about this
With the speed and big play ability of DJ, safetys have to cheat toward him. With TG speed down the seams he is a matchup night mare. He has at least 6 TDs and 6-8 games with a 100 yards and adds a few to MacnJac TD totals. With as many young guys as you have on offense he would be the crafty vet to stablize your offense.
KICK ASS every day!!!
I dont think Celek has TG speed. TG gets up the field quickly.
If DJ runs a stop go or a slant and go the safety will see and feel TG coming. He commits to TG and DJ is freaking gone. If the safety doesnt leave DJ free there isnt anyone to cover TG deep. He can still beat any LB or SS deep.
I dont think Witten has TG speed but TO sure gave him some deep passing lanes. We are missing that this year.
KICK ASS every day!!!
Not sure which games you are watching
But Celek is consistently getting open and all of Jackson’s passing TDs were 40 yards +. I haven’t seen Gonzo beat any LBs or Safeties deep this year and he’s got another stud WR next to him — Roddy White.
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
WRONG!
Jackson had a TD for a MERE 35 yards last week. Very disappointing of him to do that. Where’s the 60 yarders, DeSean?! HUH?!
I am the people's troll :3™
CUT HIM!!!
"Eagles fans are a passionate group who love their team," said McNabb, "if not the actual players. It's not like winning a Super Bowl before the first month of the season is the hardest thing they've ever asked of me. That'd be all those times they asked me to go kill myself."
by greenbean#twoOH on Dec 6, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
not gonna lie
i was upset with all the people calling for long, drawn out offensive drives. i expect every drive to be 1 play touchdown drives, most going to desean, and recently he has certainly been disappointing
/sarcasm
RIP JJ & HK
Just fucking win. (as said by LegendKnight22)
Where wouldwe be without McCoy?
That might be the bigger question.
We would have likely drafted a RB later on, but is there a impact RB drafter in the 3rd round or later this season?
(about to cause nightmares) What is all we had right now was Bunkley and Booker?
last years playoffs
After Celek’s ridiculous post season I couldnt understand why anyone wanted to trade for Tony Gonzalez. Celek has proved himself this season to be an elite TE. Im glad we have Celek and our 2nd round pick.
The thing is
Andy Reid and company have collectively gone from being average at talent evaluation in the draft to spectacular during their tenure – and many of the second-round flame-outs occurred earlier in the ’00s.
Simply put, a second-round draft choice means much more to us then it does to, say, the Redskins, because we’ll actually use it productively. So, with that said, I probably wouldn’t make the trade with hindsight.
But when talks were occurring about Gonzalez moving from KC, I admit, I was one of the people who was helping to drive that bandwagon.
Right...
Reid’s last 5 second round picks, McCoy, Desean Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Winston Justice, and Reggie Brown(worth it until Desean took over).
Pretty good list.
Andy Reid is 43-5 when running the ball at least 30 times in a game( Ray Diddy on Eagles Post Game Live after Bears Victory)
2ND round
was too much…i was on board if it was third rounder…and now we have two of them anyway…would have been perfect, practically had TG for free.
"Eagles fans are a passionate group who love their team," said McNabb, "if not the actual players. It's not like winning a Super Bowl before the first month of the season is the hardest thing they've ever asked of me. That'd be all those times they asked me to go kill myself."
by greenbean#twoOH on Dec 6, 2009 10:25 PM EST reply actions
Also Im glad we didnt trade for him because this year
is going to be a deep draft and 2nd rounders may be worth as much as 1st rounders.
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
If Celek falters which I don’t believe will happen because he’s one of the most hard-working players ever, we picked up a great prospect in Cornelius Ingram as well even though he went through surgery his chances in the NFL aren’t over.
Well it definitely would be nice to have Gonzo here, but when it comes down to it, to be successful in the NFL you have to make the most effective use of your limited resources to address the team’s needs. Last year celek was certainly a question mark so the move may have made sense. But now that we are in a great position at TE with Celek (and Ingram as well) so it is no longer a need we would have to spend such a high cost addressing. A 2nd round pick is certainly a high price considering Gonzo is 33 and we would only pick once in the first 2 rounds of that draft. Right now we have many other glaring needs on defense that we can address with that pick and although most of our second rounders haven’t exactly panned out, there is still the potential to pick a Jackson, a Mccoy or a Brown like you said.
In and ideal world I would love to have Gonzo and Celek, but you can’t get everything you want. A team would never sign a Michael Vick when they already had a Donovan Mcnabb right????
When are people going to realize that this was not a move that would have made sense. TG has played in the league for 13 years and is a HOFer he holds a shit ton of records but …
He’s been to the playoffs 3 times in his career, he’s never been on a team that has won anything his teams record 101-104. A tight end does not make a football team.
Jim Johnson 1941-2009
"The 0-2 pitch, swing and a miss! STRUCK HIM OUT! The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 World Champions of baseball! And let the city celebrate! " - Harry Kalas 1936-2009
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