Broncos game prediction thread

First of all, let me congratulate a certain Team Serbia for nailing last week's game at 27-13 Eagles.  TS, do you have any good stock tips for me this week?  How about next week's winning lottery numbers?  Help a brother out, man.

I like to think my prediction of the thread of the game was fairly accurate, but my 24-19 prediction wasn't even in the top 3 closest.  I did get Trent's 2 sacks, and also predicted a big game for DJax.  Neither of those predictions were very bold, so really who cares?  On to Sunday's tilt!

When we have the ball:

As our demolition of a fairly good defense last week showed, we have a good offense which is gelling at the right time.  Our MVP might be Peters right now, as since he's gotten healthy and used to things, everything we've tried has worked.  We run well, pass well, big plays, long drives, everything has been as good as I ever remember it being offensively for us.  This is a good thing, because Denver has an excellent defense (#3 DVOA) which does many things well.  The only thing they do below average is cover the TE, so we will likely see a few big plays to Celek this week.  They are only average against #1 WRs, so I anticipate another good day from DJax, though maybe not quite what he's turned in the last couple of games.  Then again, he's so good he might go for 200 yards against almost anyone if things break right.  We'll see. 

Denver is strong against the run, but this is mostly because they limit big plays against RBs, they are below average in power situations.  Expect to see success in short yardage situations from Weaver.  Their DL is good at rushing the passer, so we might have more trouble keeping #5 upright than against other teams, but as I said our OL is gelling, so hopefully this won't be a big issue.

When they have the ball:

Similar to last week, we're going against a top level defense and a poor, or at least below average, offense.  The Broncos pass the ball well, but have fallen off since a hot start.  They do not run well at all, especially in short yardage situations (something the Eagles D is very good at).  This means more punts and fewer long drives, more passes and hopefully more INTs this week.

Quick, make a case that Kyle Orton is a better QB than McNabb!  Amuse your friends with these numbers tomorrow over Christmas dinner:

Yards - Orton 3,131 McNabb 2,857
Completion % - Orton 62.5% McNabb 61.4%
INTs - Orton 7 McNabb 8
TD passes - Orton 17 McNabb 19
DVOA - Orton 17% McNabb 14%

I'm not trading McNabb for Orton any time soon, but those are some numbers I did not expect.  Orton has been a good QB this year, and McNabb has had a few poor games, along with missing a lot of time due to either injury or showing off Vick, to put Orton over the top so far this year.

Special Teams:

Few people recognize how good the Eagles Special Teams have been this year.  DJax gets a lot of credit for this, but the Birds do pretty much everything well.  We rank #1 in Punt returns, but also near the top in kickoffs, due to the monster year Akers is having.  Good in FGs, good in punts, only slightly below average in kickoff returns.  This is a very good squad which puts our offense and defense in good positions again and again during games. 

Denver is not so good.  They don't stink any anything except one thing, but the only thing they are above average in is kickoffs.  Note this well, the thing they stink at is punts.  I expect to see a few long returns from our man DJax, unless they choose to punt the ball out of bounds a lot, which in reality is just as good for our net yardage.

Summary:

When all is said and done, we are facing a team remarkably similar to San Fran.  Good to great at defense, poor on offense and special teams.  In short, I expect the result to be pretty much the same as last week - a fairly one sided affair put away in the second half.  You never know, but I think the Eagles roll in this one.

Eagles 33
Broncos 9