Week 16 NFC Playoff Scenarios
by Andrew B on Dec 21, 2009 10:48 AM EST
Email
PrintAndrewB has you covered after the jump.
Saints have clinched a first round bye and their division. They can clinch home field advantage with one more win or one more Vikings loss.
The Vikings have clinched a playoff berth and their division. They can clinch a first round bye with any combination of two Vikings wins or Eagles losses.
The Eagles have clinched a playoff berth. The can clinch their division with any combination of two Eagles wins or Cowboys losses. The Eagles can clinch a first round bye with any combination of three of Eagles wins and Vikings losses, plus a loss by the Cowboys to the Eagles or the Redskins. If the Vikings and Eagles tie at 12-4, the Eagles win a first round bye based on common opponents, which the Eagles swept: Panthers, Bears, Giants, 49ers. If the Vikings and Eagles tie at 11-5, the Eagles win a first round bye based on division record. If the Cardinals and Eagles tie at 11-5, the Eagles win a first round bye based on common opponents, which the Eagles swept: Panthers, 49ers, Giants, Bears. The Eagles and Cowboys cannot tie at 11-5 because the Cowboys would have the head-to-head sweep. One Packers win eliminates the Eagles from being the #5 seed in any set of 10-6 ties with the Giants and Cowboys and Packers - the Eagles would have to be the #6 seed based on common opponents with the Packers: Bucs, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers (Packers, 4-1, Eagles 3-2).
The Cardinals have clinched a playoff berth and their division. They can clinch a first round bye with two Vikings losses, two Cowboys wins, and two Cardinals wins based on division record with the Vikings (9-3 vs. 8-4) and common opponents vs the Cowboys: Giants, Packers, Seahawks, Panthers (Cardinals lost only to Panthers, Cowboys lost to Giants and Packers).
The Packers are 9-5. They can clinch a wild card playoff berth with any combination of two Packers wins and Giants losses or Cowboys losses. If all three teams tie for the wild card at 10-6 or 9-7, the Giants knock out the Cowboys from the three-way tie based on head-to-head, and the Packers lose to the Giants on common games: Bucs, Cowboys, Cardinals, Vikings, but beat the Cowboys on head-to-head, clinching the #6 seed. The Packers and Cowboys cannot tie at 11-5, because the Cowboys would win their division, removing them from the wild card race. If the Packers and Eagles tie at 11-5 or 10-6 for the wild card, they would be tied in conference record and the Packers would get the #5 seed based on common opponents: Bucs, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers (Packers, 4-1, Eagles 3-2).
The Cowboys are 9-5. They can clinch their division with either two wins, or two Eagles losses and a Giants loss. They can clinch a playoff berth with any combination of two Cowboys wins and Giants losses. They can clinch a first round bye with two Vikings losses, two Cowboys wins, and a Cardinal loss. The Cowboys lose the tie-breakers to the Cardials in any tie at 11-5 or 10-6, making them the #4 seed unless they secure the first round bye.
The Giants are 7-6. They cannot clinch the division. They can clinch a wild card playoff berth with three wins and a Cowboys loss (#6 seed) or Packers loss (# 5 seed), or two wins and two Cowboys losses or two Packers losses. The Giants hold the tie-breakers over both the Cowboys (head-to-head sweep), and will hold it over the Packers with a Giants win over the Vikings or a Packers loss to the Cardinals (common opponents - Bucs, Cowboys, Vikings, Cardinals; Giants 3-1, Packers 2-2). The Giants miss the playoffs in any tie with the Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles at 10-6.
42 comments
|
6 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
great analysis!
If I were to put this together, it would take me 2 weeks and the playoffs would already be started.
If you dont like Big Red, then F#%@ You!
-Ricky Bobby
by GreenInBaltimore on Dec 21, 2009 11:06 AM EST via mobile reply actions
PhD on NFL scenarios...great work
rec’d
It’s interesting, that in the final week the G-men could give us a first round bye (by beating Vikes), and in return we can give them a wild-card spot (by beating Cowgirls).
Good stuff, Andrew
Let’s go Giants (tonight vs the Skins) and Bears! We need the Giants to be playing for their lives in Week 17 aginst the Vikings and it wouldn’t hurt if the Bears could spoil the Vikings fun this coming week while they’re at it.
The Eagles are the first team in NFL history to have a running back and a wide receiver with 500 yards apiece in the same season before their 22nd birthdays.
Andrew B...up for a challenge?
Try this same thing for the AFC. haha
If you dont like Big Red, then F#%@ You!
-Ricky Bobby
by GreenInBaltimore on Dec 21, 2009 1:20 PM EST reply actions
This kind of thing
reminds me too much of those “Are you eligible for a ROTH-IRA contribution” charts I had to study in college. It gets too complicated to follow without a compuer.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
SI.com
is projecting the ’boys beating us and that we will fall to the six seed but i think its cause they are starstruck from the victory over the saints
you pretty much just look at who's predicted to win...
then you make your own educated opinions/guesses and just see compare after the weeks over..
To be honest thats the only fun I see in them, I feel the eagles should win every game really.
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
Nice job
I have one question that I don’t think was answered:
What if the Giants, Packers, and Cowboys all tie at 10 wins each?
I know there are different rules for 3 way ties, so who gets kicked out?
Never assume skill at bouncing a ball makes you smarter than the guy who built the court.
When there's a WILL there's a WAY
Giants and Packers...
are in.
The Pies lost twice to the Giants, and lost to the Packers too.
That would leave the Cow-prod’s where they should be…on the outside looking in.
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
"I just saw Avatar, and Sean Avery was hands down the best character!"
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 22, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
sure..
please get the 3rd seed.
I’d love for the Giants to play the Eagles again.
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
"I just saw Avatar, and Sean Avery was hands down the best character!"
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 23, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Yea, Id rather it be in round 2 where we can have the bye week and
rest our walking wounded.
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
If you win out and get in
Pretty good chance we’ll be resting with our feet up during the first playoff weekend.
yeah, but we have to win out and
Denver and Dallas arent exactly cupcake teams… Lets go Desean!
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
You aren't following me
If the Giants get in, there’s a pretty good chance the Cowboys have lost to the Eagles on Week 17. It also means the Giants will have beaten the Vikings. Which, in turn, means there’s a pretty good chance we’ll have the bye.
of course....
yet, you’re counting on beating the Broncos?
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
"I just saw Avatar, and Sean Avery was hands down the best character!"
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 23, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
I was following you... I was just saying WE need to win out too...
I am hoping we can win out.
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
I did it on Yahoo's playoff scenario maker
The cowboys are indeed out if they have any type of tie
Never assume skill at bouncing a ball makes you smarter than the guy who built the court.
When there's a WILL there's a WAY
I figured that...
The Giants and Packers have the tie breaker over Dallas.
LETS GO ’SKINS!
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
"I just saw Avatar, and Sean Avery was hands down the best character!"
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 23, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
We need to win out...
if we have HFA that would be great, and that means we dont have to face the Saints in the Championship(if we make it there, knock on wood)
or if they lose we have HFA…
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
just to be clear
Its impossible for us to grab the 1 seed and the only way we’d have home field advantage for an NFC championship game is if we had the two seed and the saints got upset in the divisional round.
But that sort of thing did happen in our favor in 2003
Desean Jackson... "If He's even, He's leavin"
Im saying if the saints lose and we have the #2 seed then
we have the HFA for the rest of the playoffs…
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
That would be tremendous
especially coming from 5-4. I’d be happy with any kind of Vikings leapfrogging since I more or less counted us out of the top 2 seeds a few weeks ago. But to get the 2 AND have the Saints lose … might actually be TOO perfect.
I kinda want to go into the playoffs a little under the radar, but it seems like non-Eagles fans are starting to sniff the vapors.
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome
eh, when you win 5 straight and your rolling
people take notice… I wanna go in as a known quantity then absolute destroy everyone in our way…
thats Cobb on Kolb crime if you ask me... as said by yophillybro
If we destroy everyone ...
… I don’t care if we’re known or under the radar.
But the Eagles, over time, have had this way of playing well in stretches and just when I think they’re good, letting me down. I guess it hasn’t worked any better when they fly in under the radar, but I feel better if they’re not believing their own hype.
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome
I’m almost positive cowboys would hold tiebreaker over Arizona. Opposing teams record is better for cowboys because both teams would be 9-3 in conference play if both were to win out and Vikings lose there last two
You would be correct
So I had to establish the rules and regulations of the game...85!
by aussie_cowboy on Dec 26, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Positive? Must not have actually checked anything then.
Cowboys and Cardinals common opponents are Giants, Packers, Seahawks, Panthers.
The Cardinals lost only to Panthers, Cowboys lost to Giants and Packers. Common Opponents record is 3-1 for Cardinals, 2-3 for Cowboys, with the Cardinals still to play the Packers. If they end up tied at 11-5, that would mean the Cardinals beat the Packers. But even if they didn’t, and tied at 10-6, they would still hold the common opponents tie-breaker because 3-2 is a better record than 2-3.
And you mean only if Cowboys and Cards
are division winners, right? Because otherwise there is no tie to break between these two.
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome
Must not have actually checked anything then.
Bit harsh, considering that he is correct and that you are wrong. The first tie-breaker would be conference record, in which the Cowboys would be superior, Common opponents is irrelevant.
So I had to establish the rules and regulations of the game...85!
by aussie_cowboy on Dec 28, 2009 6:44 AM EST up reply actions
"he is correct and that you are wrong"
The first tie-breaker would be conference record, in which the Cowboys would be superior, Common opponents is irrelevant.
DETERMINING HOME-FIELD PRIORITY
To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
If Arizona and Dallas are tied at 11-5, they both won their final game, since they are both 10-5 right now. Thye both play conference opponents. They both have a conference record of 8-3 right now. So their new conference record would be 9-3.
http://www.nfl.com/standings?category=conf&season=2009-REG&split=Overall
Only in Dallas Math can a Cowboys team that is 9-3 in conference play be superior by record to a Cardinals team that is 9-3 in conference play.
he is correct
He said: "Opposing teams record is better for cowboys "
Cowboys lost 2 to Giants and lost to Packers and would be 2-3. Cardinals would be 4-1. 4-1 for the Cardinals is better than 2-3 for the Cowboys except using Dallas Math where smaller numbers, like 0 playoff wins and 0 week 17 wins in a decade are actually bigger.
If the Vikings are also involved, Vikings would have an 8-4 conference record and be eliminated at the conference record point of comparison.
So Week 17 is shaping up to be ...
… a pretty intertwined bunch of possibilites.
GB is crushing Seattle, and the NYGs are getting killed. Assuming DAL beats WAS, ARI beats ATL, MIN beats CHI and we beat Denver, here’s how I think things stand going in:
NO and MIN are 1-2
DAL (6) @ PHI (3)
GB (5) @ ARI (4)
PHI (11-4) would have to play hard to try to catch MIN (12-3) and not get caught by ARI (10-5), at which point DAL and GB (10-5 each) would be playing to force something other than a rematch.
It’s just weird because both PHI and ARI would have to play hard, and their reward for doing so would be to play the same team again, although at least in PHI’s case, it would move a road game home.
If 11-4 PHI loses at 10-5 DAL, that means, what? DAL wins the NFC East and plays at home as the 4 seed?
Maybe I should just wait for Sunday to end before jumping to all these conclusions :)
Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
