FanPost

49-ers game prediction thread

See here for last week's thread, where I didn't do too badly in my final prediction (34-20, also predicting a DJax punt return TD).  Of course, if I had been totally off, there's little chance I would be linking to it, would there?

 

Anyway, with a little help from DVOA, here's what I see:

What the Eagles do well - wrapped up from last week, we do almost everything well on offense, trying to take what is given and strike for big plays.  On defense, despite a weak performance last week we have been a top unit all season long.  If our D has any weak spot, it's in covering RB's in the passing game, and we're only ok in covering TEs.

What about the 49-ers?

Overall, a below average team, with a poor offense and a good defense.  Since Smith took over, their offense has improved, though they are still not a great unit.

On offense, they have a TE with a lot of TDs, though his catch rate (catches/thrown to) is only 61%, not at an elite level (Gates is at 73%, Clark at 77%).  Their RB is good, and will catch the ball out of the backfield.  Their OL gives up a lot of sacks (8.6% of pass plays result in sacks, "good" for 27th in the NFL).

On defense, they are good both against the run and the pass.  The good news is they have 2 glaring weaknesses, defending #1 WRs, and defending passes to RBs.  Hmmmmm, do you know any team with a really good #1 WR, and a coach who loves to throw the ball to his RBs?

 

Predictions:  Trent has a mad-on after being mugged with impunity last week in New York.  He'll have at least 2 sacks.  DJax will run free against their secondary, and McCoy will likely have a big game at least in the receiving area this week.  Our D has been very good against the running game all year, and this weekend will likely be no exception.  Expect a big game from Gore and TE Davis in catching passes, though.  In the end, I see Smith throwing a couple of INTs, and just falling short.

Final score:

Eagles 24

49-ers 19

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