Eagles Playoff Scenarios
by djubirds on Dec 14, 2009 2:43 PM EST
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After the Eagles win last night, I convinced myself that a week 15 win over SF, without any other help, was all that was needed for the birds to clinch a playoff spot. A site, nfl-forecast.com, disagreed, giving the Eagles only a meager 98% chance..meaning they hadn't quite clinched. Sure enough tinkering with yahoo's playoff scenariio generator, it was proven, there is a situation where the Eagles can get to 10-4 and miss the playoffs. Obviously only teams with 6 losses or less concern the Eagles, and suffice it to say, only if the Giants go 10-6 can the Eagles miss the playoffs.
Going 0-2 against PHI, only a three way tie at 10-6 can spare the giants the direct tiebreaker. As it turns out, I think I have found the one and only situation where the Eagles miss the playoffs if they get to 10-4.
Click after the jump for the scenarios
If PHI, DAL, and NYG all end up tied at 10-6. NYG could win the division based on tiebreakers
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
The Giants could win "Best record in common games" divisional tiebreaker, win the division and pit the eagles in a direct tiebreaker with Dallas..which to go 10-6, the Eagles would lose. (If GB also ends up 10-6 this might save the Eagles, but I'm not sure because they might break the two team division tie first)
I said the Giants could win the "Best record in common games" tiebreaker. This would only be relevant if the second divisional criteria is tied...best division record. What it comes down to is this, to go 10-6 Dallas will lose to either NO or WAS (If they go 11-5 Philly does not need to worry about the three team tiebreaker. If Dallas beats WAS (losing to NO), they join PHI/NYG at 4-2 in the division and the giants hold the common games tiebreaker. IF they beat NO and lose to WAS they are 3-3 in the division (dropping out of the three team tie) and making the Eagles 2-0 over the Giants the top tiebreaker. To get to the main point of all this gibberish, the Eagles can clinch a playoff spot with a win vs SF and a Dallas win over NO.
I don't know how everybody feels about the saints, I dont like them, I'm not sure why but they really annoy me. Add to that, their threat to go 16-0 and I could have very well tolerated a Dallas win over them. Now knowing that a Dallas win, puts the Eagles a win away from the playoffs, I will have no trouble stomaching a Dallas win on Saturday.
As embarassing as it would be if I screwed this up, please let me know if I went wrong somewhere
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I also have an issue with the Saints, but anything that causes more Cowboys FAIL is awesome in my book.
Go Saints.
Let the beasting begin.
by TransplantedFan on Dec 14, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
the Eagles can clinch a playoff spot with a win vs SF and a Dallas win over NO.
We just need a win over SF we don’t need the Boys to beat NO …
Jim Johnson 1941-2009
"The 0-2 pitch, swing and a miss! STRUCK HIM OUT! The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 World Champions of baseball! And let the city celebrate! " - Harry Kalas 1936-2009
Thats what I thought, Not quite true
If NYG, PHI and DAL get to 10-6, New York can (but not definitly) escape the tiebreaker and win the division, pitting Philly directly agaisnt Dallas, and losing the 0-2 tiebreaker
Actually...
The common games tiebreaker would knock the Eagles out of the division tie (the loss to Oakland). Give the giants the head to head over Dallas, and put DAL vs PHI for the wildcard) same outcome just a different route
Eagles in with a win?
Assuming Eagles, Cowboys, Giants all tie at 10-6, and all are 4-2 in division, then Eagles beat 49ers, lose to Broncos and Cowboys; Cowboys beat Redskins and Eagles, lose to Saints; and Giants win out by beating Redskins, Panthers, and Vikings, and assuming Packers are 10-6 or better …
Then we have to determine the division winner first. Based on common opponents, the Eagles are knocked out by the loss to the Raiders, then the Giants win the division because they went 2-0 against Cowboys.
Now for 5th spot Wild Card, its Eagles and Cowboys. Eagles lose head to head.
So then Eagles would need to hope to get the other wild card. The Packers are the only other team that could be 10-6. If they were also 10-6, it would go to conference games, where the Pack is going to be either 8-4 or 7-5 if they end up 10-6, depending on who they would lose to, while the Eagles will be 9-3, so they would be in as the 6th spot wild card. If the Pack is 11-5 or 12-4, the Eagles are obviously out.
There are actually three playoff scenarios for the Eagles:
Eagles win + Giants tie or loss (Giants can’t be better than 9-6-1, Eagles can’t be worse than 10-6, no one else can qualify with a better record.)
or
Eagles win + Cowboys tie or win (Cowboys win division in three-way 10-6 tie via common opponents tie-breaker, Eagles get wild card by head to head with Giants at 10-6 tie; if Cowboys go 9-6-1 Eagles win head-to-head for division against Giants at a 10-6 tie; if Cowboys got 10-5-1 and Eagles and Giants are 10-6, Cowboys win division, Eagles get wild card by head-to-head with Giants; if Eagles and Cowboys both go 11-5 with Cowboys winning out, Cowboys win division, Eagles win wild card, Giants can’t be better than 10-6 and miss playoffs.)
or
Eagles loss + Giants loss + 49ers loss tonight (Eagles 9-7 at worst, Giants 9-7 at best. If 9-7 tie with Cowboys, Giants, Eagles then the Giants are eliminated based on division record of 3-3, Eagles get wild card, Cowboys win division based on head-to-head. If just Eagles and Giants at 9-7, then Eagles win head-to-head for wild card or division, and win head to head over Falcons for wild card if they were 9-7 and no one else can qualify at 9-7 except Packers. If Packers were also 9-7 there would still be two wild card spots, and the Eagles would definitely get the 5 seed because only the Eagles, Giants, Packers, and Falcons could qualify, and the Eagles would eliminate the Giants head to head, then beat the Falcons and Packers based on conference record, then the Packers and Giants would beat the Falcons based on conference record and one or the other would be the 6 seed based on strength of victory.)
Personally, I’m hoping for 49ers to lose tonight and be eliminated, then the Eagles beat 49ers, Giants lose to Redskins, Cowboys lose to Saints, Vikings lose to Panthers, Cardinals lose to 49ers and Lions.
My head hurts now, thanks
"I hate listening to people's dreams. It is like flipping through a stack of photographs. If I'm not in any of them and nobody is having sex, I just don't care. "
by midnitegreen on Dec 14, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
in all honesty, each week the saints stay undefeated the more vulnerable they become. I’d rather have them win out in the regular season and take a dive in the playoffs when the eagles may have to face them.
I think when your undefeated the bullseye on your chest gets bigger each week. I sincerely believe that if the Patriots had lost to the Eagles, Ravens, Giants (or any other close game they had) in the 07 regular season they would have stomped the Vagiants in the superbowl as expected.
obviously we need to take it one game at a time, but come playoff time id rather the #1 seeded saints be shouldered with the impossible burden of trying to go perfect as opposed to losing a game beforehand and having time to recollect themselves
I'd say take Dallas completely out of playoff
talk in general until they can win one freaking december game.
"When people talk about Super Bowl dynasties they mention the 1970's Steelers, 1980's 49ers, 1990's Cowboys and the current New England Patriots, but nobody has dominated the Super Bowl like Anheuser-Busch. In recent years, Budweiser has been the MVP of Super Bowl advertising -- making another company the favorite to win the Ad Meter poll was never an option."
Simon Noble
Yeah seriously
We keep acting like Dallas is actually still playing football
Dont Disrespect the Level
their playing, just never enough to close out a december game.
"When people talk about Super Bowl dynasties they mention the 1970's Steelers, 1980's 49ers, 1990's Cowboys and the current New England Patriots, but nobody has dominated the Super Bowl like Anheuser-Busch. In recent years, Budweiser has been the MVP of Super Bowl advertising -- making another company the favorite to win the Ad Meter poll was never an option."
Simon Noble
Root for the Cowboys? Madness!
However, I am a bigger Eagles fan than a Cowboys hater. So yeah I’ll be pulling for Tony Homo and Co. Oh my god I can’t believe i just said that
We can make it to the playoffs without having to root for a Cowboys victory, so no thanks.
Besides, the Saints are my second favorite team behind the Eagles, so I don’t wanna see them lose to anyone but the Eagles.
PS How could the Saints annoy someone? Other than Shockey (and maybe Bush), who isn’t to like on the team?
Well we can play that game all day.
As a Cuse alum I should hate McCoy. Iverson went to Georgetown! I love the guy, but I really should hate him. Though if Jenkins actually played for a team you cared about my argument would make more sense.
Hey is SB NATION slow for anyone else too?????
Its freakn driven me nuts!!!!! It’s been sooo Slow today!
"... You play to win the game. Hello? You play to win the game. You don't play it to just play it. That's the great thing about sports: you play to win..."
yes
"When people talk about Super Bowl dynasties they mention the 1970's Steelers, 1980's 49ers, 1990's Cowboys and the current New England Patriots, but nobody has dominated the Super Bowl like Anheuser-Busch. In recent years, Budweiser has been the MVP of Super Bowl advertising -- making another company the favorite to win the Ad Meter poll was never an option."
Simon Noble
Much ado about nothing
Does anyone really think that the Giants, ’Boys, and Eagles will all finish 10-6? I would bet the odds on that are less than 10%.
But you never know. This is why I love Football
I hope not though. I personally think the Eagles go 12-4
May I suggest this?
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario
In my scenario
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&13=41505054&14=44004511&15=51100041&16=55051515
(which only concerns the nfc East teams, didn’t bother with other teams)
you guys win the diviion with an 11-5 record.
However, the last game vs dallas is very important. If dallas wins (assuming you lose to denver)
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&13=41505054&14=44004511&15=51100041&16=55051505
we get the division crown at 10-6, cowboys get a wild card spot.
I think you guys will go 2-1, although beating denver means it doesn’t matter.
So yeah, have fun with it.
Never assume skill at bouncing a ball makes you smarter than the guy who built the court.
"Osi is probably one of our worst db's but he did alright there"
My Scenario
I’m almost positive Dallas won’t make the palyoffs (loosing their last 3 games). I think the Vikes also loose 2 of the next 3 to go 12-4. Eagles win thier last 3 games to win the #2 spot and a bye. I think giants also make the palyoffs.
Cute puppy though his skin looks kind of loose. Make sure to keep an eye out and don’t lose it….
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Dec 14, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry had to. I think Dallas wins one at least but Eagles are taking division and 3rd seed.
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Dec 14, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
Bingo
1 win for us + 1 loss for Giants = Playoffs Clinched.
Never will I cheer the boys, and I don’t have to.. I just have to continue to cheer on the Eagles and the team playing against the Giants. I will also cheer on the team playing Cowboys…. just for S & Gs, and better ranking… even though this means I’m actually cheering on that team from DC twice, but I’ll forget about that later.
not sure if they can beat the 49ers. The D in SF had a great game last night.
"What excites me the most is when a coach calls a timeout and chews out his forward because I just dunked on his head."
--Karl Malone
Yeah, those Niners are unstoppable, what with their 6-7 record and all
If you’re going to bother to sign up to post on a rival’s blog, don’t be openly moronic.
Honestly
I hate the Cowboys. I (somewhat) like the Saints.
I want the Saints to win. I don’t care if we don’t clinch this week. 2% is very little. VERY little. And I’ll stomach that as long as Dallas fails.
I dream of the day when the Eagles are the only NFC East team to make the playoffs.
Wishlist:
[Desean Jackson] -for- [1,000 Receiving Yards] -currently- [947]
[Asante Samuel] -for- [9 Interceptions] -currently- [7]
[Trent Cole] -for- [12.5 Sacks] -currently- [9.5]
[Michael Vick] -for- [4 Rushing Touchdowns] -currently- [2]
So Therefore
I hope the Eagles win, and I hope the Giants lose.
Clinch’d, and no rooting for NFC East teams. Perfect scenario.
Wishlist:
[Desean Jackson] -for- [1,000 Receiving Yards] -currently- [947]
[Asante Samuel] -for- [9 Interceptions] -currently- [7]
[Trent Cole] -for- [12.5 Sacks] -currently- [9.5]
[Michael Vick] -for- [4 Rushing Touchdowns] -currently- [2]
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