The Playoff Picture: NFC East And Beyond

The 2009 playoff picture as it so stands:

First, what we already know: the Eagles stand at 7-4, good for second in the division and are one of the two teams firmly in place for a wild card spot (the other being Green Bay).  The Cowboys are currently in the driver's seat, albeit only by a game, at 8-3.  The Giants are floundering after their latest loss, an embarassing 26-6 effort against Denver, which has them at 6-5.  The Redskins, at 3-8, are all but eliminated from playoff contention at this point.  So the race for the NFC East title is, at least for the time being, between two teams, which runs contrary to the preseason suppositions that had three teams vying for the crown.  Here's the outlook for the NFC East over the remaining five weeks:

EAGLES

Next up, we have the Falcons, followed by the Giants, 49ers, Broncos and Cowboys.  This is not an easy road to go down by any stretch of the imagination.  The Birds are capable of beating or losing to any one of these teams, so they have to take special care and minimize injuries as best they can.  If anything will be our undoing, it will be injuries to key players.  Inconsistency and playcalling can be improved, but injuries are kryptonite to playoff hopes.  Furthermore, the team must address another glaring problem, which happens to be the number 3.  As in 3rd down.  As in the offense can't seem to convert on 3rd down consistently, and the defense can't seem to hold their opponent on 3rd down.  This has got to change right away if the Eagles are going to make the playoffs, and certainly if they want to challenge for the division title. 

The way I see it, the Falcons are in huge trouble without Matt Ryan and Michael Turner.  Ryan gives them the best chance to win when he's under center, and Turner when healthy is very difficult to stop, so with them out of the picture, there's not a whole lot about that team that scares me other than Tony Gonzalez.  Eagles should win this Battle of the Birds in A-Town.

The Giants are struggling to keep their heads above water, mired in third place behind us and Dallas.  At 6-5 they're hardly finished, but this team can't seem to shake the injury bug, with the latest victims being Eli Manning and Antonio Pierce.  Even though Eli swears his ailments won't hinder his play or keep him sidelined, Big Blue has major issues.  This game will be at the Meadowlands, so they'll have home-field advantage, but will it be enough?  I don't think so, not after playing against Dallas the week before.  Eagles win.

The 49ers are an enigmatic team.  They've shown they can be competitive, but at 5-6 they're still on the outside looking in.  They've got some serious talent in that locker room (Gore, Davis, Crabtree, Willis to name a few) but I get the sense that they're still a season or two away from being serious contenders.  Make no mistake though; these ain't the 49ers of Mike Nolan.  Mike Singletary seems to have this team headed in the right direction.  Birds win, but I don't think it's gonna be a rout this time.

I had the Eagles at 11-5 this season, so according to my calculations, they'd be 10-4 by the time they face the Broncos but then lose.  And unfortunately, I think they will lose this one.  The Broncos have a good team in place, even though consistency issues dog them.  Like us, they showed they can beat good teams (they beat Dallas in October) but lose to bad ones also (they lost to Washington).  Our shaky offensive line could have problems containing Elvis Dumervil and Co.  This is a big game because it's Dawk's homecoming party (I can't wait to hear the roar of the crowd when his name's called on the PA system), and we'll be supporting him, even though we want his team to lose.  This'll be a close one, but I think the Birds will come up short.

Now we come to the last game of the season, and of course it's a matchup with Dallas.  And man, does their remaining schedule SUCK.  They've gotta play the Giants, Chargers, Saints (Woo-Hoo!), Skins (who they only beat by 1 last time), and then us.  If I'm Wade Philips, the flop sweat is now pouring from my moobies.  They're gonna be beat to hell by the time we line up against them in Big D, so I'm counting on their fatigue to get the better of them.  They could possibly beat the Chargers, but I just don't see them beating the Saints.  How's this for a scenario: once again, it's Philly and Dallas head-to-head just like last season.  The NFC East division title goes to the winner.  And that winner...is us.

COWBOYS

Their five-game home stretch is hellish, as I said above.  Beating the Giants and the Redskins isn't exactly gonna be any kind of a cakewalk, but then they gotta play San Diego, New Orleans, and then us?!  It really works out beautifully.  I hope that New Orleans helps us out and doesn't rest their starters for the playoff push or anything...that'd suck.  But they're pursuing perfection, and Drew Brees is a consummate competitor, so I don't see it happening.  Both we and the Boys should be 10-5 by the time our matchup rolls around.  I think, excitingly enough, that the NFC East race will go down to the wire and be decided when we play them at season's end.

GIANTS

The G-Men are gonna have a very rough time of it for the remainder of the season with the problems they have.  Word just came down that Antonio Pierce was placed on injured reserve, so he's done for the year.  Eli Manning is hurting, despite what he says, and the guys they have healthy aren't getting the job done.  They've gotta play Dallas, then us, then the Skins, Carolina, and they finish up with...ouch...Minnesota.  They're 6-5 now, and I don't see them beating Dallas, us, or Minnesota.  Injuries and lack of heart will drop this team to 8-8 and out of contention.

REDSKINS

Stick a fork in 'em.  Someone should tell Jim Zorn that there's no shame in cutting your losses early: he and his beleaguered team still have to face the Saints, Cowboys, and Chargers.  Welcome to the top ten of the 2010 draft, boys.

OTHER NFC PLAYOFF CONTENDERS (excluding division leaders):

There is a huge disparity in the NFC this season.  Three teams (New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona) are running away with their divisions while the race remains tight only in the East.  There are two clear Wild Card teams, and only two other teams with even a remote chance of making the playoffs:

GREEN BAY PACKERS

We are currently paired with the Packers as the top two Wild Card teams in the NFC.  Their remaining opponents are the Ravens, Bears, Steelers, Seahawks and Cardinals.  I think the Ravens, Steelers, and Cardinals can definitely beat them, but will they?  The Pack is 7-4 right now, like us, and I like the way Aaron Rodgers is playing.  I'd actually root for him to get to the playoffs to face down Brett Favre again and beat him and his Vikings.  I see the Packers losing two in this stretch, to Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  I think they'll be a wild card team at season's end, with a final record of 10-6.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta's outlook would certainly be brighter if Matt Ryan and Michael Turner weren't hurt.  They currently stand at 6-5, but they play us next and then division rivals (and NFC juggernaut) New Orleans.  Losses to these teams should put them on the fringes of playoff contention.  Their other opponents in this stretch are the Jets, Bills and Bucs.  9-7 seems very likely.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

At 5-6, you wouldn't think that the Niners were in contention, but they are.  The only two teams that should scare them in their remaining schedule are the Birds and the Cardinals.  Other than that, they play the lowly Seahawks, Lions, and Rams.  It's rotten luck for them that they should wrap up the last quarter of the season with three really lousy teams and two good ones.  Remember, though, they beat the Cardinals in their previous meeting.  They could very well go 4-1 in the last 5 weeks to finish above .500.  Too little, too late though; once again, I think the Packers and the Cowboys will take those wild card spots.