DVOA analysis for Eagles/Bucs game

Now that we are in week 5, we have enough information to start meaningfully analyze the match ups using the DVOA spadework from the good folks at Football Outsiders.  Overall, they rate the Eagles at #2 (behind the Saints), compared to Tampa's #28. 

Analysis over.

Seriously, looking more closely into the numbers, what can we expect?

When the Eagles have the ball

The Birds have an offensive DVOA of 15%, good for 14th in the league.  The pass offense ranks 21%, #12 and the rush 23%, #6

Tampa has a defensive DVOA of 28% (positive DVOA is bad on defense), which is worst in the league.  Looking deeper, they rank:

Against the run 11% #28

Against the pass 50% #31

Against #1 WRs 44% #30

Against #2 WRs 59% #32

Against Other WRs 22% #23

Against TEs 19% #18

Against RBs -54% #2!!!  Finally something the Tampa defense seems to do well!

What this means for Phily is you can expect to see a lot of throwing, for a lot of yards, all game long.  In other words, pretty much the same as ever other Eagles game.  DJax and Celek might have career days, and look for either Maclin or Curtis to break a big play or two, as well.  Don't expect to see a lot of successful screen passes Sunday.  When the Birds do run the ball, it will be effectively, both in the WC and out.

When Tampa has the ball

The Eagles have the #2 ranked defense in the league so far, at -26% (remember negatives are good for defense).  Their only loss was mitigated by the fact that they fell to the top offensive team per DVOA in the Saints, and furthermore they had poor field position most of the game.  In other words, DVOA thinks weeks 1 and 3 are more indicative of our true ability than week 2.

The Eagles break down as:

Against the run -34% #3

Against the pass -17% #10

Against #1 WRs -78% #3

Against #2 WRs 27% #29  (boooo!  Shall we blame Sheldon?)

Against Other WRs -12% #11

Against TEs -41% #4

Against RBs 5% #16

We see that the Eagles do everything well, except cover #2 WRs and we're only ok at covering RBs.  The covering RB thing you expect from a team which blitzes as much as the Eagles, but the #2 WR is concerning.  Or at least it would be against a better throwing team!  The Bucs have only the #20 ranked offense so far this year, with a 4% pass offense (#21) and a -1% rushing offense (#15).

Frankly, Tampa's offense rates out a little better than I expected, and their defense a little worse.  I can only assume their schedule and field position causes some of this, as they haven't faced a truly terrible defense yet, and 1 of their opponents has top 5 D (Giants).  Also, their putrid defense has put them in a playing catch up position, which no team wants.

Overall, I expect to see the Eagles put point on the board, a lot of them, in a hurry.  I fully expect McNabb will throw for over 300 yards and have a few TDs to make a statement about his position on the team.  This is the ideal team to come back against, and he'll take full advantage.

Tampa Bay will try to keep up offensively, and if our defense plays poorly they may put some points up.  However, this is the kind of inexperienced team and QB that teams like the Eagles eat alive.  I expect we'll force a few turnovers and many 3 and outs, then let up for a few meaningless drives late in the game.

Final prediction:

Eagles 34

Tampa Bay 13