DVOA analysis of upcoming Giants game

by NJBammer on Oct 29, 2009 2:04 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

After a one week break, let's take a look at what DVOA can tell us about the upcoming game. Link here:

First overall DVOA (through NYG)

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	TOTAL DAVE	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	NO	43.1%	1	33.2%	3	6-0	32.5%	2	-16.4%	5	-5.7%	27
2	IND	42.4%	3	40.8%	1	6-0	33.4%	1	-9.1%	8	-0.1%	15
3	NE	38.6%	4	38.1%	2	5-2	30.9%	3	-7.9%	9	-0.2%	16
4	GB	35.1%	8	27.5%	4	4-2	17.0%	8	-20.5%	1	-2.3%	23
5	DEN	34.7%	6	23.6%	8	6-0	17.1%	7	-20.4%	3	-2.8%	24
6	PHI	33.0%	2	27.4%	5	4-2	8.4%	16	-20.4%	2	4.2%	4
7	BAL	27.9%	9	25.2%	6	3-3	25.2%	5	-5.9%	11	-3.2%	26
8	MIN	24.6%	7	24.2%	7	6-1	11.1%	14	-3.9%	13	9.5%	2
9	NYG	22.8%	5	22.0%	9	5-2	13.2%	12	-9.4%	7	0.2%	14

As you can see, both teams are in the top 10 overall, both better in defense than offense, both seem to match up well against each other.

When the Eagles have the ball:

	TEAM	OFFENSE DVOA	LAST WEEK	OFFENSE DAVE	RANK	PASS OFFENSE	PASS RANK	RUSH OFFENSE	RUSH RANK	NON-ADJUSTED			VAR.	RANK
										TOTAL	PASS	RUSH
16	PHI	8.4%	13	8.0%	16	16%	16	13.9%	7	13.3%	19.4%	21.4%	9.1%	24

	TEAM	DEFENSE DVOA	LAST WEEK	DEFENSE DAVE	RANK	PASS DEFENSE	PASS RANK	RUSH DEFENSE	RUSH RANK	NON-ADJUSTED			VAR.	RANK
										TOTAL	PASS	RUSH
7	NYG	-9.4%	6	-8.8%	8	-14.8%	8	-3.6%	19	-7.0%	-15.9%	-2.6%	7.6%	24

Both of these teams are what they are pretty consistently. Philly's strengths are overall countered by the Giants' strengths. With one obvious exception. The Eagles, amazingly enough, are pretty good at running the ball. I know this includes some DJax and Wildcat, but still, that's an area where we should be able to exploit a relative advantage. The question of course, is obvious. Will we?

No one knows what Andy thinks
No one knows what Andy schemes
No one knows what Andy plans
But Andy.

We may get somewhere passing the ball, and with WRs like Jackson and Maclin, one or two big plays might make up for what should otherwise be a difficult day passing the ball. But if we run the ball a lot, well, that's a big "if".

When the Giants have the ball:

	TEAM	OFFENSE DVOA	LAST WEEK	OFFENSE DAVE	RANK	PASS OFFENSE	PASS RANK	RUSH OFFENSE	RUSH RANK	NON-ADJUSTED			VAR.	RANK
										TOTAL	PASS	RUSH
16	NYG	13.2%	7	13.0%	9	33.9%	12	2.3%	11	13.4%	32.9%	3.6%	5.7%	13

	TEAM	DEFENSE DVOA	LAST WEEK	DEFENSE DAVE	RANK	PASS DEFENSE	PASS RANK	RUSH DEFENSE	RUSH RANK	NON-ADJUSTED			VAR.	RANK
										TOTAL	PASS	RUSH
2	PHI	-20.4%	1	-16.1%	1	-22.6%	3	-17.4%	8	-30.0%	-34.4%	-24.4%	10.9%	28

Interesting parallel here, in that the Giant's strength is again in the passing game, which is also our strength. We're also fairly good in against the run, and the G's just average, so I don't anticipate a lot of ground yards for them.

Overall, the main reason we're good against the pass seems to be our ability to get to the QB and prevent long plays to the opponent's WRs, as most of the damage against us goes to the RBs and TEs. Lucky us, the Giant's main RB threat Jacobs isn't a receiving threat at all, and their TE Boss is below average. Balancing this is the fact their OL does not give up a lot of sacks, ranking 3rd in this category. This will be the most interesting match up of the day, and if we can get to Eli, it should be a long day for the G men. Kind of a big "if" though.

Overall, I predict a tough defensive game, with one or two big plays deciding it. Given that right now I think we have more playmakers than they do, I'm going to predict those big plays will be in our favor.

Final:

Eagles 24
Giants 17

1 recs | Comment 17 comments | Add comment

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

great analysis man

Let's get it.

by homestar2281 on Oct 29, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can’t even read those statistics. They make my head hurt, math was never my strong suit. However the concepts I do understand and comprehend, and I agree the outcome will show a Defensive battle to keep the offenses in good position to score, I feel the Giants Offense has more drive sustaining ability than ours does at this point though, here’s to hoping we get some continuity, in whatever form it may come.

Astra Inclinant, Non Necessitant

by EagleGreeninMD on Oct 29, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Isn’t Kenny Phillips out? Isn’t he pretty much their best defensive back? Shouldn’t this effect the game?

Who is their new starter?

by topcat6 on Oct 29, 2009 4:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He’s been out for a few weeks now.

"The last time the Eagles won by scoring in the final two minutes of regulation was a 23-20 win over Oakland in 2005."

by Smitty2K3 on Oct 29, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, KP has been on the IR since week 3!

by Hootman on Oct 30, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

c.c. brown

of texans fame.

"it's like i tell my ex-wife, i never drive faster than i can see, and besides it's all in the reflexes." -Jack Burton, Big trouble in little China

by snowhill82 on Oct 29, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I ain't trying to be a smart ass or anything but...

do you think it is a coincidence that the Giants have lost their last couple of games? I don’t know… Kenny Phillips is a player, and he is gone.

I was just wondering if this will impact their ability to cover. Since all we do is throw deep bombs and all that.

by topcat6 on Oct 29, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very true

Once the Giants got into the main portion of their schedule, a major difference was exposed. The difference being KP being out and CC Brown in. This started with the Saints game, though the Giants D collectively played poor, CC was a major contributor in his lack of coverage skills. He played better (mildly) against the Cards, but run support is his strength!

I would be very surprised if AR doesn’t dial up a few go-routes at CC!

by Hootman on Oct 30, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

their secondary is garbage.........

if ever there was a game Andy goes all out with the pass this it, donavan might hav a career high in pass attempts tommorow. Heres the thing …..if the giants roll coverage over 2 deseans side of the field well………we saw wow that turned out to the tune of Jeremy Maclin havin a career day. I kno our offense is struggling at sustaining drives and all but if we can just lull these guys 2 sleep and play good D then we can win again with the big play.

by goldenbird09 on Oct 31, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Considering the opposition, garbage is a pretty strong biased assumption?!

Would the Giants giving up 600 yards to Brees and Warner with CC playing be the equivilant of, the Eagles giving up 508 yards to Russell and Campbell? Albeit, Dawkins is gone as is Kenny Phillips too, but Harris must be that much better?

by Hootman on Oct 31, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Webster

Is their best DB by far.

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Oct 29, 2009 9:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

aaron ross is a pretty good young corner. he’s not quite webster. but he’s definitely serviceable. i actually kind of like michael johnson. he’s a good hitter.

"it's like i tell my ex-wife, i never drive faster than i can see, and besides it's all in the reflexes." -Jack Burton, Big trouble in little China

by snowhill82 on Oct 30, 2009 5:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs