FanPost

DVOA analysis of upcoming Giants game

After a one week break, let's take a look at what DVOA can tell us about the upcoming game.  Link here:

First overall DVOA (through NYG)

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
TOTAL
DAVE
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 NO 43.1% 1 33.2% 3 6-0 32.5% 2 -16.4% 5 -5.7% 27
2 IND 42.4% 3 40.8% 1 6-0 33.4% 1 -9.1% 8 -0.1% 15
3 NE 38.6% 4 38.1% 2 5-2 30.9% 3 -7.9% 9 -0.2% 16
4 GB 35.1% 8 27.5% 4 4-2 17.0% 8 -20.5% 1 -2.3% 23
5 DEN 34.7% 6 23.6% 8 6-0 17.1% 7 -20.4% 3 -2.8% 24
6 PHI 33.0% 2 27.4% 5 4-2 8.4% 16 -20.4% 2 4.2% 4
7 BAL 27.9% 9 25.2% 6 3-3 25.2% 5 -5.9% 11 -3.2% 26
8 MIN 24.6% 7 24.2% 7 6-1 11.1% 14 -3.9% 13 9.5% 2
9 NYG 22.8% 5 22.0% 9 5-2 13.2% 12 -9.4% 7 0.2% 14

As you can see, both teams are in the top 10 overall, both better in defense than offense, both seem to match up well against each other.

When the Eagles have the ball:

TEAM OFFENSE
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
OFFENSE
DAVE
RANK PASS
OFFENSE
PASS
RANK
RUSH
OFFENSE
RUSH
RANK
NON-ADJUSTED VAR. RANK
TOTAL PASS RUSH
16 PHI 8.4% 13 8.0% 16 16% 16 13.9% 7 13.3% 19.4% 21.4% 9.1% 24
 

TEAM DEFENSE
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
DEFENSE
DAVE
RANK PASS
DEFENSE
PASS
RANK
RUSH
DEFENSE
RUSH
RANK
NON-ADJUSTED VAR. RANK
TOTAL PASS RUSH
7 NYG -9.4% 6 -8.8% 8 -14.8% 8 -3.6% 19 -7.0% -15.9% -2.6% 7.6% 24

 

Both of these teams are what they are pretty consistently.  Philly's strengths are overall countered by the Giants' strengths.  With one obvious exception.  The Eagles, amazingly enough, are pretty good at running the ball.  I know this includes some DJax and Wildcat, but still, that's an area where we should be able to exploit a relative advantage.  The question of course, is obvious.  Will we? 

No one knows what Andy thinks
No one knows what Andy schemes
No one knows what Andy plans
But Andy.

We may get somewhere passing the ball, and with WRs like Jackson and Maclin, one or two big plays might make up for what should otherwise be a difficult day passing the ball.  But if we run the ball a lot, well, that's a big "if".

When the Giants have the ball:

TEAM OFFENSE
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
OFFENSE
DAVE
RANK PASS
OFFENSE
PASS
RANK
RUSH
OFFENSE
RUSH
RANK
NON-ADJUSTED VAR. RANK
TOTAL PASS RUSH
16 NYG 13.2% 7 13.0% 9 33.9% 12 2.3% 11 13.4% 32.9% 3.6% 5.7% 13
 

TEAM DEFENSE
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
DEFENSE
DAVE
RANK PASS
DEFENSE
PASS
RANK
RUSH
DEFENSE
RUSH
RANK
NON-ADJUSTED VAR. RANK
TOTAL PASS RUSH
2 PHI -20.4% 1 -16.1% 1 -22.6% 3 -17.4% 8 -30.0% -34.4% -24.4% 10.9% 28

Interesting parallel here, in that the Giant's strength is again in the passing game, which is also our strength.  We're also fairly good in against the run, and the G's just average, so I don't anticipate a lot of ground yards for them.

Overall, the main reason we're good against the pass seems to be our ability to get to the QB and prevent long plays to the opponent's WRs, as most of the damage against us goes to the RBs and TEs.  Lucky us, the Giant's main RB threat Jacobs isn't a receiving threat at all, and their TE Boss is below average.  Balancing this is the fact their OL does not give up a lot of sacks, ranking 3rd in this category.  This will be the most interesting match up of the day, and if we can get to Eli, it should be a long day for the G men.  Kind of a big "if" though.

Overall, I predict a tough defensive game, with one or two big plays deciding it.  Given that right now I think we have more playmakers than they do, I'm going to predict those big plays will be in our favor.

Final:

Eagles 24
Giants 17

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