DVOA inspired thoughts of last night's game
I'm a little supersticious, I'll admit. Since I boldly predicted an Eagles' win against the Raiders based on DVOA analysis last week, I didn't do anything of the sort this week, just in case. Well, now the game is over and we can see what happened and how suprising it was.
The main thing I'd like to look at is the Eagles' offense vs. the Redskins' defense. We had 2 big plays on offense, and otherwise some long drives which seemed to peter out around midfield. Other than the big play, we didn't run that well, and didn't convert enough 3rd downs to extend drives into points. Above all, we looked pretty poor in the second half. What does it all mean?
The Skins have a pretty good defense, that's what. not great, but pretty good. Overall, their D had a DVOA of -6.1%, slightly better than average. Their passing D is piss poor, with a DVOA of 15%, 19th in the league, but their running D is great, with a -25% DVOA, 3rd in the league!
So, given the large lead and the ineptness of the Skins' O, it seemed to me that in the second half our offense was content to run the ball a lot, go with the short passes, and run out the clock, which pretty much happened. While I would have liked to have seen more points, I can live with the certain win. The alternative would have been more downfield throwing, which might have resulted in more big plays, but might have resulted in turnovers, more sacks, and less time burned off the clock. Overall, considering the situation, I have little problem with the playcalling and results of the second half.
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Interesting Analysis
How can I learn more about DVOA?
by BreckBirds20 on Oct 27, 2009 12:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's the webiste...
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
by NJBammer on Oct 27, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love DVOA … it always adds perspective, thanks REC’D
Jim Johnson 1941-2009
"The 0-2 pitch, swing and a miss! STRUCK HIM OUT! The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 World Champions of baseball! And let the city celebrate! " - Harry Kalas 1936-2009
by Whodie126 on Oct 27, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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