DVOA analysis for the Oakland game

I almost didn’t do this for this week’s game, because Oakland is so bad it almost makes meaningful analysis impossible.  However, wouldn’t you know if I were to skip this would be the week we get upset in a series of freak events – Tampa’s 63 yard FG comes to mind.  So, without further ado:

Eagles DVOA 57% #2

Raiders DVOA -61% #32

In no way should this be a remotely close game.  I’m not sure the line, but it will probably be higher than last week’s 16 point one against the Bucs.  But, looking deeper into the matchups:

When Philadelphia has the ball:

Philly has an outstanding offense, even with no real contribution yet from Westbrook.  With a DVOA of 23% (#6), we pass well (34% #10) and run well (22% #6).  You know all these things.

Oakland’s defense is bad against pretty much everything:

Pass D 18% (#18) (remember negative DVOA on defense is good, positive is bad)

Rush D 8% (#25)

Vs #1 WR 13% (#21)

Vs #2 WR 21% (#27)

Vs Other WR 30% (#26)

Vs TE -38% (#3) – Same as last week, this is something our opponent does semi-well, but maybe just because all other targets are so open.

Vs RBs 11% (#18)

Same as last week, it will be pick your poison, as the Eagles will have so many options, we can probably run the Wildcat 90% of the time and still score 20+.  As I said, it’s hard to predict how the Eagles will move the ball, but easy to predict that they will.  Probably like last week, we’ll see a few big plays to our WRs, some long drives, and high quality play overall.

When Oakland has the ball:

Unlike their defense, which is just ordinarily bad, Oakland’s offense is historically bad.  It all starts with Russell, but they don’t do anything well, with a passing DVOA of -54% (#32), rushing of -23% (#28).  If they are wise, they’ll run a lot to keep the score somewhat close, but who really knows?  Maybe they’ll punt on 2nd down to limit the damage Russell can do.

Philly has the #1 Defense overall to date, ranking with -39% (#3) against the pass, and -19% (#8) against the run.

Vs #1 WR -53% (#4)

Vs #2 WR -29% (#7) – big improvement over last week, due to a timely INT by Sheldon and other good play

Vs Other WR -71% (#1)

Vs TE 8% (#15)

Vs RBs 9% (#15)

Again, with the kind of blitzing D we run, you are going to have some success throwing to the TEs and the RBs, and this is a trade off that JJ and his disciples like McD accept.

Overall, this opponent is kind of the opposite of last week, which had an ok offense and a terrible defense.  Now it’s a below average defense and a putrid offense.  If the D comes in keyed up and determined and has a really great game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a shutout.  The offense should move the ball without a whole lot of trouble, and I think we’ll see Kolb and Vic again in the second half.  We should see more big plays from one or both of our big little WRs, and limited involvement from Celek and our RBs in the passing game.

Final prediction:

Eagles 27

Raiders 6