Eagles/Giants Blogsummit - Day four
by JasonB on Jan 9, 2009 2:00 PM EST
in News
33 comments
In the penultimate exchange of our Eagles/Giants blogsummit, Ed and I dive headfirst into our predictions. I think we both put up a pretty good defense of our respective squads. Just for fun we included our predictions for the other three games this weekend as well.
If you wanna catch up with our converation over the week, be sure to check out day one, day two, & day three.
Be sure to check out Big Blue View to see Giants fans think of our picks and analysis.
BBV - When we talk about predictions for Sunday's game you know that, as the Giants' blogger, I am picking the Giants. Jason, I assume you will pick the Eagles and I am anxious to hear why. Anyway, here is my case for why the Giants will win.
Simply, it boils down to this. The Giants are the better football team. The Giants are defending Super Bowl champs, the Eagles did not make the playoffs last year. The Giants went 12-4 this season, won the NFC East and earned the No. 1 seed. The Eagles went 9-6-1, earned a playoff berth with a season-ending victory (albeit an impressive one) and are the sixth seed.
I looked at the two regular-season meetings between the Giants and Eagles earlier this week. I believe the Giants' 36-31 victory is a game New York thoroughly dominated, and that only a couple of uncharacteristic Giants turnovers made the game close. In the second game, I honestly believe the Giants lost it more than the Eagles won it. There was a dropped pass by Domenik Hixon that would have gone for an 85-yard touchdown. There was also a stupid reverse to Mario Manningham that cost the Giants a field goal opportunity. Those two plays equaled a 10-point swing, and probably cost the Giants that game.
The Eagles have not shut down the Giants' running game either time the teams have played. Brandon Jacobs ran for 126 yards in the first meeting. In the second meeting, he had 10 carries for 52 yards (a 5.2 yard average) before getting hurt and Derrick Ward had eight carries for 39 yards (a 4.9 yard average). In the second game I think the Giants simply did not run often enough. If the Giants stick with the run like they should, and like they normally do, I don't see the Eagles shutting it down this time, either.
Also, I read the other day that in 11 meetings between a six seed and a one seed, the one seed is 10-1. So, that favors my team.
All of that said, I do respect the Eagles. They are a good team and have, for the most part, played well in recent weeks. Brian Westbrook and Donovan McNabb are tremendous, and playing against a Jim Johnson defense is never a walk in the park. Would I be completely stunned to see the Eagles win? No, but if the Giants play the way they are capable of playing I don't see it happening.
My Pick: Giants 24, Eagles 20
Other Games:
Steelers 17, Chargers 14
Ravens 24, Titans 21
Carolina 31, Cardinals 14
BGN - I happen to think the Giants got thoroughly dominated in game number two between these teams. Much like the first game, the close final score didn't really reflect how the game went. The Eagles owned the line of scrimmage in that game, much like the Giants controlled the line in the first game between the two.
You can call the Giants' turnovers in that game "uncharacteristic" but the fact is that it's not uncharacteristic for teams to turn the ball over against this Eagles defense. You can also say we didn't shut down the Giants' run game, but any time you hold a team that can run the ball as well as the Giants to 88 total rushing yards and less than 4 yards per carry.... you've done well. Maybe not "shut down" but pretty close.
And Hixon's pass drop? I would suggest that it's just as much of a fluke that he got open behind our defense as it was that he dropped the pass. This Eagles defense is ranked #3 in the NFL. They're the 3rd best pass defense in the NFL and it's not likely that many receivers are going to have opportunities to run free behind our secondary.
As for Jacobs getting hurt against us... would it shock anyone if he got dinged up again? He is a really good player, but he's clearly not the most durable back in the world. By Jacobs own admission he could have returned in that game but didn't see a point. "But why?" he said. "We couldn't get anything going and we didn't play as good as we're supposed to play." I thought that quote was interesting...
Plus, he always seems to get a case of fumbilitis against the Eagles. I believe he's fumbled in both games this year. Again, backs fumbling is not something that is rare against this Eagles defense.
Maybe the most amazing stat between these teams is that Giants have not yet sacked McNabb. I believe they got credited for a sack on a play where McNabb tripped after the snap and Justin Tuck touched him down. They've not been able to beat the Eagles' line and pressure McNabb for a sack once! The Giants' defense is built on pressuring the passer and when they don't get there, they struggle. That's evidenced by the 51 points they've allowed against the Eagles in two games this year.
The Giants may well be the better football team, after all records speak for themselves. However, the records do say that the Eagles are playing better football right now. Since the start of December the Giants are 1-3 and the Eagles are 4-1. There was a meaningless loss to the Vikes in there for the Giants, but the fact is that in the last month and a half the Giants have only tasted victory once. That means something.
I have no delusions about this game. Despite all my negativity toward your team in this post, I absolutely respect the Giants. They've got a good QB and a really good defense and when you have those two things you've got a better than average shot to win any game especially in the playoffs. Going on the road to beat a team like a the Giants in the postseason is a gargantuan task... but I'm keeping the faith. Keeping the faith in McNabb, Westbrook, and especially this Eagles defense. I say this ends with the exact final score of the last game.
My Pick: Giants 14, Eagles 20
As for the other games...
Tennessee 17, Baltimore 20
San Diego 13, Pittsburgh 17
Carolina 31, Arizona 17
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I for one thought the Giants got lucky in the first game. I really thought Jacobs fumbled on his way into the end zone, and the Eli manning pass past the line of scrimmage is now one of my new rule pet-peeves. If you remember, the Eagles had the ball with the chance to win, but couldn’t convert on 3rd-1 or 4th-1.
by Clyde Simmons on Jan 9, 2009 2:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great arguments for both sides
Jason, fantastic rebuttal. I’ll throw in another three cents.
1) Whether or not Hixon’s drop was a fluke or the poor coverage was a fluke, we don’t know he would have scored. That is an assumption made in every discussion. Hixon did have to slow down a bit for that pass and Sheldon is in a full sprint behind him. Not saying I think Sheldon catches Hixon stride for stride but I think he has a chance to trip him up there if the catch is made. Who knows what happens after that.
2) The Giants got a nice flukey play of their own with that blocked field goal turned TD. That was a 10 point swing. If that play happens differently, we are not even discussing if that game was close or not.
3) Jacobs got hurt in the third quarter of that game. Buckhalter did not play that entire game. Hey, Buck is no Jacobs but he is a very valuable piece of our running game. The dropoff from Jacobs to Ward is not nearly is significant as Buckhatler to Booker. (Not just including the running game when I say that. I am including blocking and the passing game)
by Dawk on Jan 9, 2009 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great arguments
Guys it has been a great week of back-and-forth with Jason, and I have enjoyed it. We all see what we want, through a blue prism (in my case) or a green one (in the case of the folks here at BGN). I have had fun tapping into the passion on both sides, and I’ve done my best to try and keep it as friendly as possible. Enjoy the game Sunday … although I do hope you guys are mourning the start of the off-season Monday morning instead of me.
— Ed
Big Blue View
by Ed Valentine on Jan 9, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
tecmo
that’s the same prediction that the tecmo simulation came up with. interesting.
then again, plax was playing, and for some reason someone put tony hunt in. but i digress.
World F#$king Champions
by psudrozz on Jan 9, 2009 2:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
funny thing, that whole #1 vs #6 seed record...
Generally the #1 team is really, clearly, better than the #6 team. They also play at home. Given the two things, it’s not surprising that their record is so good. IMHO, you cannot make the case that the Giants are clearly better than the Eagles. True, they lost 2 fewer games than us, but you can’t get past the fact that the Eagles beat them on their field just a month ago, and there’s no reason the think that the Birds are a worse team than they were then, and there’s no reason to think the Giants are a better one.
The record of #1 vs #6 is one of those which is more a case of correlation than causation. I don’t think it applies in this case.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant
by NJBammer on Jan 9, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Giants 21-17
Because the Eagles neeed more offensive playmakers……http://www.fanzak.com/fzrants/2009_NFL_Mock_Draft_10
by Bmoraven20 on Jan 9, 2009 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
oh where to start. i place no faith in a mock draft that has the Eagles picking 22nd over all… yes, this could be the case HAD THEY LOST IN THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PLAYOFFS! As they did not, their lowest possible pick can only be 25th… And the post is from today…
But T.O. and his sideline histrionics wear on a quarterback. He's like the hot stripper you tried to clean up and convert into a real girlfriend. It's a lot of fun until the moment she has her second drink while out to eat with your parents. You unravel quicker than she does.
by foos05 on Jan 9, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was always under the impression that only the teams who attended the Superbowl had their picks lowered.
by Clyde Simmons on Jan 9, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
NOPE
Clyde Simmons is correct, unless you are in the Super Bowl your draft pick is solely dependent on your record and not how you do in the playoffs. So if they Eagles lose this week or even next week they will have the 22nd pick in the draft.
by TwoTonsOfIrony on Jan 10, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If anyone had made their way over to big blue view to read their comments on the predictions, one of the Giants fans posted clearly insulting Jason. I’d like us to be the bigger group of bloggers and not go over their insulting back, but try to make rational arguments.
by Clyde Simmons on Jan 9, 2009 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yea, nice to see someone from that blog also tell him to back off of jason.
by Ben16 on Jan 9, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey if I’ve angered a Giants’ fan to the point of hurling insults…. I must be doing something right!
by JasonB on Jan 10, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think people in Philly are taking the Giants a little too lightly. The last times these two teams met, the Giants had absolutely nothing to play for, where as, the Eagles were in an elimination game. The Giants were also missing Barry Cofield and Fred Robbins (their starting DT’s). In the first game Westbrook had about 30 yards rushing, and the second game he had above 130 yards. You can see what kind of difference it makes when two starting DT’s are out. The Giants also had the distraction of Plaxico that entire week.
Having said all that I think the Eagles have a couple of things working in their favor. I think I read the most telling stat on nationalfootballpost.com . In the first game the Eagles had Plax double covered 93% of the time. In the second game the Eagles only double covered the Giants’ receivers approximately 7% of the time. This leaves the Eagles to put another man in the box (most likely Dawk) to try and stop the run. Having seen Dawkins the past few weeks, the guy wants out with a ring, in a bad way. He is tackling motherfuckers, and knocking them out of games. Another thing the Eagles have in their favor is the fact that the vaunted Giants D-Line only has one sack against McNabb (he slipped). Whatever the Eagles are doing with their protection scheme it’s working. I think this might change this game, but it’s still a huge advantage.
Both these teams have things working in their favor, I just think the Giants are healthier and more rested than the Eagles especially that Giants D-Line against the Eagles O-Line (Runyan is basically on one knee). Having said all that I still pick the Eagles. My brain wants to go with the Giants, but my heart will forever bleed green, and I just can’t pick against my team even though it’s foolish.
Final Score
Eagles 21 Giants 17
by Philly Homer on Jan 9, 2009 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agree
People are being over cocky against this Giants team. They got home field, they’re well rested, and they got plenty of motivation to try hard. We’re definitely the under dogs and it’s going to take some good coaching and some good plays to take this one.
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
by Joe_D on Jan 9, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it actually was a meaningful game for the giants they were playing to get the playoff birth and they were still playing for the 1 seed. they failed to lock up the 1 seed 2 weeks straight before edging carolina, also there was still a mathematical chance that dallas could battle them for the division at the time of kick off
by 0sirys on Jan 9, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
THe Giants were still playing for the division and a playoff spot. If you remember they didn’t clinch until after that game when Dallas lost.
by JasonB on Jan 10, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I for one am not feeling cocky
(Feeling cocky- giggity, giggity) My intestines have been in my throat since Monday morning. I’m hoping for an Eagle win, I’m expecting a nail-biter, and I’m fearing the end of a Cinderella run.
Eagles 23-21
I bleed green and I piss silver and blue
by oldasquick on Jan 9, 2009 6:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would be very surprised to see a blow out one way or the other
"When I have the ball, I experiment." #5
by Sabonis4Ever on Jan 9, 2009 8:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm Where to start
1. The giants are stupid along with every New Yorker ever born.
2. Bradon Jacobs is a bitch. What he said after the week 14 loss was very revealing. He is a big boy but once you hit him in the mouth he looks for a reason to quit. In boxing, one of the many aphorisms that are commonly used is “Once a quiter, always a quiter”. I feel this could happen. We should look to discourage him ASAP.
3. That BS stat about #1 vs #6 doesn’t explain the Patriots losing to a wildcard team in the superbowl. Clearly there are too many varibles to look at seeds for an indication of who will win.
Where are the stats for 3rd games at? I mean this is a totally different dynamic than a simple #1 vs #6, right?
4. Hmm, ohh yeah they are missing their best playmaker…
5. Lastly, I still am not sold on Eli Manning. We know him and he knows us, still I feel without Plax he isn’t good enough to win a game without a big name offensive threat. He used to rely on Tiki Barber and Shockey(When he was good), now he needs the running game to dominate so he can have some easy throws.
P.S. Hasn’t one of JJ mantras been “Bend but not break” in regards to Rush D? Remember when Ahman Green would have like 200+ rushing but we wouldn’t allow TD’s? I think even if the Giants could run the ball well, like Andrew B and everyone else repeats, the passing game is where the points come from.
I like our DB’s over their Plaxless Wr corps.
by topcat6 on Jan 9, 2009 9:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm not even gonna touch #1
except to say that if you don’t think anyone on this list is smart, then it seems pretty unlikely that you are either.
As for #2, every team we’ve played this season has talked about “punching Brandon Jacobs in the mouth” (none more than the damn Ravens and their obnoxious fans), and Jacobs dominated all of them. I know he said he could have gone back in, but the fact is that the team held him out the next week against the Cowboys, which suggests that maybe he really couldn’t have gone back in (why he made that comment, I’m not sure, and I’ll admit I didn’t like it). Teams try to hit Jacobs, but he’s just too big to intimidate. He might get hurt, but he won’t get scared.
- - while it’s true that any team can win on any given Sunday, the #6 seed is usually a team who had to fight to get into the playoffs and then had to win the first round playoff game, meaning they are beat up and tired by the time they play the #1 seed, who almost invariably will have locked up at least a playoff spot before the final week of the season, and always has at least a week off to rest up. Add in home field advantage and the fact that, generally speaking, the #1 seed should be a little bit better than the #6 seed and it helps explain why the #1’s are 10-1.
As for #4 & 5, true we’re w/o Plaxico, and that obviously doesn’t help us, but I don’t think it hurts as much as some people think it does. Our game-changers this year have been the running backs, not Burress (even when he was playing). And every time he’s lost a weapon, Eli’s gotten better, at least until this december. But a lot of us over at BBV feel that the reason the offense sputtered in December wasn’t b/c of the loss of Burress, but rather b/c we lost both Burress AND Jacobs – the one game Jacobs played the offense played great against Carolina. Eli’s not the best QB in the league, and he’s not the kinda guy who’s gonna carry a team while putting up big stats like his brother or Tom Brady (or, giggle, Tony Romo), but he makes the important plays he has to make to win games, and at least this year he hasn’t been making crippling mistakes, other than in the Browns game.
Anyway, it should be a great game, and I can’t wait for Sunday. I feel like everytime these teams meet it ends up being a compelling game, so hopefully we’ll get another one.
by cjmulrain on Jan 10, 2009 12:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry for the weird formatting
didn’t realize that it would do that…
by cjmulrain on Jan 10, 2009 12:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Listen
1. Did you know that everyone knows that NY is thee most important city in the world? Even I know that. I don’t think that every New Yorker is stupid. Only 90%. If you work in City your prolly really smart and have a decent education and are motivated. I was in the Marines and all my friends in bootcamp where from New York. So, I have first hand knowledge on the garbage from the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn, it is just as bad or worse than where I grew up. I know that most real New Yorker are retards. Just like a lot of native Philadelphians are partially retarded as well.
2. Bradon Jacobs is a good back. If you think his comments were not a glance into his subconscious that’s fine with me. Remember, the Eagles are playing great football right now, so your boy might just quit sooner than he did last time. Injury or no injury.
3. Hello!!! Your team beat a the best ever regular season team to win a superbowl. Hasn’t there been a bunch of wild card teams winning the superbowl in this decade? Yeah, I thought so.
4. I’m glad you agree that Eli Manning isn’t at a point in his career where he can win games just because he is on the field.
I don’t hate all New Yorkers, just the pretentious low-class know it alls.
by topcat6 on Jan 10, 2009 2:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"I know that most real New Yorker are retards. Just like a lot of native Philadelphians are partially retarded as well."
Finally something we can agree on. But let me tell you, I’ve relocated to DC, and I think there’s even more retarded people down here. I think 90% of everyone, everywhere is dumb. But that’s a discussion for a different time.
And yea, we did beat the Patriots last year, but even I’ll admit that was extremely lucky. If we played them 10 times, they’d have probably beaten us in 8 or even 9 of them. The Giants played nearly flawlessly in that one, and still needed a late game drive, a 4th and 1 conversion, and a 3rd and 5 miracle to win. That game, and even the Steelers winning it all are the exceptions that prove the rule. Out of 42 Super Bowls, a #1 seed has won 18 times, or 42.8. The #6 seeds have won 1 Super Bowl, or .02. If you don’t think that’s statistically significant, then I don’t know what to tell you. Does it guarantee that that the Giants will win tomorrow? No, absolutely not – but it does mean that they are statistically more likely to win.
by cjmulrain on Jan 10, 2009 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
correction
the #1 seeds I was looking at only went back to 1975. So it’s actually been 18 out of the past 33 years that the #1 seed has won the Super Bowl (54.5), and the #6 seed was only added in 1990, so they’re actually 1 for 17 (5). Also, over the past 33 years, 37 of a possible 66 #1 seeds have made the Super Bowl (56), while the #6 seed has only made it once out of a possible 34 times (2.9).
Take a look at this site and tell me that the #6 seed has just as good a chance as the #1 seed
by cjmulrain on Jan 10, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One of 17 six seeds one it all
That’s about 6, using a very small number of games (17) as a reference. If we go all the way, the number goes to 11. Me thinks 6% does not count as an exception. Less than 6% of cigarette smoker die of lung cancer. Using your logic, smoking related lung cancer is an exception to the rule, the rule being that smoking doesn’t cause lung cancer.
I bleed green and I piss silver and blue
by oldasquick on Jan 10, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"WON" not "ONE"
I bleed green and I piss silver and blue
by oldasquick on Jan 10, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
jason, have you considered doing another “andy reid approval rating” poll before the giants game? Depending on the outcome of the game, I think the results will be either higher than usual due to everyone being elated (as they should be…nfc championship game is good for any coach’s resume), or lower than usual due to the unthinkable. did you have plans to do any more of these?
by eagleyosh on Jan 10, 2009 12:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I’m going to do one after the postseason. I’ve decided to try and do them monthly rather than every single week. Doing it weekly seems to have react to the last game. If you we do it monthly we could take a broader look.
by JasonB on Jan 10, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My Take on the Game
Jason, great post and nice rebuttal.
Over at my site, I’ve been taking a look at each phase of the game as the week progresses ending in my prediction for the game. Not suprisingly, we share a lot of the same sentiments on how the Eagles will win this game.
Here’s how I see it:
Keys to the Game:
1.) Stop Brandon Jacobs: As I mentioned above, I think the Eagles will be able to limit his production. Without having to worry about Plaxico Burress, the Eagles will put eight in the box to slow down Jacobs.
2.) Get After Eli: Eli exercised his demons last year with a Super Bowl victory but he is still prone to a mistake when pressure is in his face. On occasion, he slips into his old habit of throwing off his back foot. The task won’t be easy, as the Giants have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, but if they are able to reach Eli, they should be able to force a turnover or two.
3.) Establish a Willingness to Run the Football: If the Eagles show the intent to run early, it will open up their passing game for later in the game. They need to commit to a rushing attack on the first offensive position. This will mean getting Correll Buckhlater involved in the action to lighten Westbrook’s load.
4.) Protect McNabb: The Eagles have been able to do this with astonishing success in the previous two matchups and they will need to do so again tomorrow. If they give McNabb time, there will be room to throw in the Giants secondary.
This will be a hard-fought game that will live up to all of the hype it has received. Like many NFC-East battles, I anticipate a knock-em-down, drag-em-out battle.
My prediction? Eagles live to play another day: Eagles 17, Giants 13
Chris Iafolla http://heardinthecheapseats.com/
by Chris Iafolla on Jan 10, 2009 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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