Grading the Eagles Players vs. Expecations

by Andrew B on Jan 20, 2009 8:18 PM EST Comment 15 comments

Pro Football Prospectus 2008, like its previous issues, has a projection of player statistical accomplishment each year. Now that our season is over, its worth reviewing to see how different players faired.

Team

Wins: 11.7 - incomplete, Eagles got 9.5 actual wins but their scoring differential of 127 implies an expectation of 11.3 wins

Playoffs: 97.5% chance of making 9+ wins and getting in - passed

QB - McNabb: B

Projection: 328 of 507 (64.8%) 3851 yd, 29 TD, 12 INT, 35 rush 134 yd, 0 TD

Actual: 345 for 571 (60.4%) 3916 yd, 23 TD, 11 INT, 39 rush 147 yd, 2 TD

McNabb met expectations, coming in high on completions, attempts, and yards, low on TD (although Jackson's stupidity did rob him of one TD) and INT, on the mark rushing, but high on rushing TD. As we all saw all year long, he should have and could have done more, but what he did do was pretty spectacular.

RB - Westbrook: C-

Projection: 280 rush 1376 yd, 12 TD, 66 rec on 89 att, 518 yd, 4 TD

Actual: 233 rush 936 yd, 9 TD, 54 rec on 73 att, 402 yd, 5 TD

Westbrook's injuries kept him out of too many games and limited him in others, preventing him from reaching these lofty expectations, especially lowering his per carry average by almost one yard per carry.

RB - Buckhalter: A-

Projection: 75 rush 346 yd, 3 TD, 17 rec on 27 att, 124 yd, 0 TD

Actual: 76 rush 369 yd, 2 TD, 26 rec on 32 att, 324 yd, 2 TD

Buckhalter met expectations rushing the football, but was a pleasantly good surprise receiving. He made up for a lot of deficiencies in the game of the injured Westbrook this year.

RB - Booker: F

Projection: 43 rush 205 yd, 1 TD, 19 rec on 29 att, 148 yd, 1 TD

Actual: 20 rush 53 yd, 0 TD, 6 rec on 10 att, 11 yd, 0 TD

Don't need to say much here. Total waste of a roster spot.

RB - Hunt: F

Projection: 56 rush 274 yd, 1 TD, 16 rec on 23 att, 159 yd, 1 TD

Actual: 4 rush 9 yd, 1 TD, 6 rec on ??? att, 42 yd, 0 TD

If you get cut from the team midseason and noboyd picks you up, clearly you get a FAIL.

WR - Jackson: A

Projection: 28 rec on 49 att, 398 yd, 2 TD

Actual: 62 rec on 120 att, 912 yd, 2 TD, 17 rush 96 yd, 1 TD

Its pretty Amazing just how far above expectations Jackson played. His rushing play was a nice surprise as well, and but for his stupidity in Dallas, he would have had 3 TD's in the regular season. If he had scored a few more TD's, he would get an A+.

WR - Curtis: C-

Projection: 65 rec on 107 att, 892 yd, 7 TD

Actual: 33 rec on 62 att, 390 yd, 2 TD

This was a disappointing season marred by injury. His recovery by the playoffs, where he did half his regular season work in just 3 games is cause for hope for next year. He's got to hold onto the ball better though.

WR - Brown: D-

Projection: 54 rec on 150 att, 785 yd, 5 TD

Actual: 18 rec on 35 att, 252 yd, 1 TD

Brown was actually more productive than Curtis and also suffered and injury marred season, but you can't meet projections sitting on the bench. The emergence of Jackson meant Brown could no longer start, and since he wasn't part of the special teams units, he mostly became a healthy scratch.

WR - Baskett: B+

Projection: 16 rec on 25 att, 142 yd, 1 TD

Actual: 33 rec on 51 att, 440 yd, 3 TD

Baskett far exceeded his rather low expectations thanks to injuries to Brown and Curtis. But he faded down the stretch as he became more entangled in the web of Kendra, becoming invisible after Thanksgiving as another wideout emerged. If he can keep his focus on football, he could be a really good 3rd or 4th wideout.

WR - Avant: C+

Projection: 38 rec on 57 att, 468 yd, 3 TD

Actual: 32 rec on 57 att, 377 yd, 2 TD

He had fairly lofty expectations which he didn't quite meet, and at first was being outshone by Baskett, but came on strong at the end and kept pouring it on through the playoffs. The competition between Avant, Baskett, and Brown next year should be very interesting.

WR - Lewis: B+

Projection: 11 rec on 17 att, 96 yd, 1 TD

Actual: 19 rec on 35 att, 247 yd, 2 TD

When expectations are low, and you manage to double them, you have to account that a successful season. With just a little more consistency catching his handful of deep opportunities, Lewis could really shine. But does anyone think that will ever actually happen?

TE - Smith: C-

Projection: 35 rec on 56 att, 329 yd, 4 TD

Actual: 37 rec on 65 att, 298 yd, 3 TD

We know you can do more, but once again you didn't. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

TE - Celek: B+

Projection: 23 rec on 33 att, 209 yd, 3 TD

Actual: 27 rec on 38 att, 318 yd, 1 TD

Celek exceeded most expecations by a bit, then came on really strong in the playoffs. If he can keep it up, no one will miss LJ Smith.

TE - Schobel: F

Projection: 11 rec on 15 att, 101 yd, 2 TD

Actual: 2 rec on ??? att, 10 yd, 0 TD

The reverse of Greg Lewis. When expecations are really low, and you don't even meet that, what does it say about you? A great big FAIL.

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Comments

Agree with all of it

Except I wouldn’t give Celek a B+. Came on strong, but blew too many blocks early on to earn anything higher than a B.

I will miss Buck who appears to be looking for a bigger role elsewhere and see ya L.J.

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Jan 20, 2009 9:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Safe to say...

…that Smith and Schobel are gone. I’m worried if Buckhalter gets any good offer he’s going to bolt because he doesn’t trust Andy to give him playing time (neither would I).

I wonder what they’ll do with Brown and Baskett. Brown is still owed a lot of money but if they didn’t want him in the NFC Championship Game…what can you say? And if you get rid of Baskett (and I’m assuming Lewis too) then you’ve got Jackson, Curtis and Avant left. That’s only three.

Big decisions ahead.

by ajay on Jan 20, 2009 9:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't see us getting rid of Lewis

He gets his token catch and contributes on S/T. He’s a good #5 which is exactly what he is, a #5 WR. Maybe I’m wrong and they decide to bring someone else in.

Pretty sure Buck said he’s going to try to go somewhere else where he can get some playing time. Sad to see Buck go, I always liked him.

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Jan 20, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

1 PROBLEM CELEK

he was just as bad as the rest of the TE drops and missed blocks he is a C- at the most

by FLAeagle on Jan 21, 2009 7:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

So what?

This is a grading against expectations, not accomplishments.

Celek beat all his expecations except touchdowns, which he saved for the postseason.

For all his drops he caught more balls at a higher catch rate than his projection.

by Andrew B on Jan 21, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That assumes the projections had some validity

I think it makes more sense to grade players based on what they actually accomplished in light of their actual roles on the team. Lewis for example was undoubtedly projected as a fifth receiver seeing relatively little playing time. With the injuries to Curtis and Brown, he (sadly) actually got a lot more playing time than could have been anticipated. So I don’t see him as a B plus. He exceeded the projections, but he sure didn’t contribute as much as a receiver who saw as much playing time as he did should have.

In the case of Celek, the projections don’t take into account blocking. So, yes, I agree, as a receiver he had a good year. But the weak blocking minimizes his total value as a player.

by MJW on Jan 21, 2009 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

still not willing to give up on booker

I have seen what the kid can do and toward the end of the season when he was active he looked like the game slowed down for him and he was understanding the offense more. This offense is more complicated than cam camerons offense and asks more of its running backs (especially if his purpose is to spell westbrook). I am willing to give booker 2 years before i make a statement as bold as he is a waste of a roster spot

by 0sirys on Jan 21, 2009 8:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think that's a fair comment

While Booker certainly didn’t do much this year, he wasn’t given very much opportunity, and he wasn’t used in ways that utilized his skills. Sending Booker into a game and then asking him to run up the middle or to pass block is not playing to his skills. The Eagles made a point of acquiring him. I don’t understand why they did so, if they didn’t really have a strategy for using him. Hey, maybe it will turn out that he just doesn’t fit in this offense, but I wouldn’t write him off on the limited exposure he got this year.

by MJW on Jan 21, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe their grand plan is to convert him to fullback.

by captain nodar on Jan 21, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

In this system you got to learn how to pass blocl. he was killed in pass blocking this year. I think it’s more of a thing besides running.

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Jan 21, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Third down back

I agree that a back who’s going to play the majority of the downs has to be a pass blocker. But a guy like Booker is best used as a third down back. If he’s in the game then he either ought to get the ball or be sent on a pass route. If they’re bringing him in when the play calls for him to pass block, that’s just a stupid use of personnel.

by MJW on Jan 21, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

awesome comment! +1

"I need to do a better job of putting players in the right position to perennially come up short of expectations"

by Whodie126 on Jan 21, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that is the thing joe he has to learn he was not asked to pass block in miami or at FSU. Westbrook said he was coming along and the diffrerences at the end of the season were night and day

by 0sirys on Jan 21, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jackson

Consdiering he is a rookie, he deserves an A+, no doubt. The play he made stripping the ball after it was intercepted against Arizona completely makes up for the Dallas Debacle. That was truly a pure effort veteran type play. He owned up to his shortcomings throughout the year and put in that extra effort in the playoffs that is needed to win championships. A+ no doubt.

by BirdBrane on Jan 21, 2009 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

"WRs"

“The competition between Avant, Baskett, and Brown next year should be very interesting.”

I agree, except I think Avant has a spot locked up given he works primarily in the slot and clearly earns Donovan’s trust.

So it’s probably more like Baskett vs. Brown vs. Lewis.

Baskett is an FA, but I’m not sure he’ll get a ton of interest, and whatever he gets, it won’t be at a price where the Eagles can’t afford to bring him back IF THEY WANT HIM. I’m going to guess that they do, given that he’s a good blocker on run downs, he makes the occasional big catch and he’s all they have in terms of a WR who can go up and get it (not that I can ever remember them running a fade near the end zone)

Lewis … we know what he brings to the table.

Brown I think is the real wild card. Do the Eagles think he was hurt this year or whatever, do they think he can still play, is he out of position, whatever.

Since Brown likely makes the most out of the three, and Lewis the least, the competition is weighted. If Baskett leaves (sorry, no team in L.A., gee) then Brown stays.

I have a weird feeling they don’t just give up on Brown. But I’m way too slow to give up on players.

by D3Keith on Jan 21, 2009 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs