The trouble with David Akers
If you happened to catch the Steelers/Ravens Monday Night game last night you probably say Steelers' kicker Jeff Reed hit a 46 yard FC in overtime to win the game. You may have also saw him open the scoring with a 49 yarder... If you're like me, after watching that you might have asked yourself "Could our kicker have won that game for us?"
The answer these days is no.
The answer couldn't be clearer coming off a weekend when David Akers missed 2 kicks of over 40+ yards in a game the Eagles lost by only 4. Problem is, this is nothing new. Since he sustained that hamstring injury in 2005, Akers hasn't looked like the same player to me. It could be mental, it could be physical... I don't know... but I do know it's not good enough.
Akers used to be a weapon. He was damn near automatic. Reuben Frank's numbers back that up.
In 2000, he missed only four of 33 kicks. Just five of 31 in 2001, just four of 34 in 2002. In fact, from 2000 through 2004, the five-year span representing the Eagles' greatest success under head coach Andy Reid, Akers made 136 of 159 field goal attempts, an astounding 86 percent success rate.
Unfortunately Frank has more numbers that detail the cold hard facts of the three time pro bowl kicker's decline.
Since then, he's made just 47 percent of his 40-yarders, including only three of 13 over the last two years. From 45 yards and out, Akers has missed his last seven attempts dating back to a 47-yarder at Lambeau Field on opening day last year. Until then, he had made 64 percent of his career kicks from 45 or deeper.
Frank notes that from inside the 40 Akers has made 32 straight kicks... that's fine, but the fact is that almost any NFL kicker is near automatic from inside the 40. Andy Reid was asked if he knew what was up with Akers.
"I think the leg strength is there. You can see it on his kickoffs. He's kicking the ball off as well as he ever has. For whatever the problem was, it has to get solved, so he and I will work on that."
Andy makes a good point. Akers has kicked off well and his long kicks sailed wide, they didn't fall short. Akers seemed short on ideas himself as to his struggles.
"I go out and try the opportunities that are presented to me," he said. "It's not like you can make the kicks from 39 yards and from 41 you're not able to make them. I'm just off a little bit.
"In this game, at my position, you can't be off. It's a precision-based position. You have to be able to hit them. If you don't, you're out of a job."
The problem with Akers saying he's "just off a little bit" is that he's been that way for the past 3 years. Most kickers hit tough patches here and there and if Akers was simply having a little slump I could buy the "just off a little bit" excuse. But after three years of poor results from over 40 yards that just doesn't fly.
As for the specific reasons Sunday's kicks sailed wide, Akers said he misplayed the wind
"I actually just misplayed the wind, for the most part," he explained on Monday.
"I still feel I was right in my assessment," he said. "If there was a screw-up at all, I hit them too good.
"For the golfers out there, if you hit the ball kind of high in the air and let the wind take it, it affects the ball. Actually, I kind of drove it through the wind and it didn't have as much effect on it as I was anticipating."
You "hit them too good?" Maybe not the best choice of words...
The question now is... what to do? Since I'm no expert on kicking mechanics and clearly would have no suggestions about what Akers could do to improve himself... I have another idea.
Accept it.
Yes, accept that Akers is no longer reliable from distance. He may say he's just a little bit off, but the numbers don't lie. This guy has been a little bit off for a long time. At this point I don't think the team is best served by letting Akers kick from those distances and ceding 10 yards of field position. My proposal is to go Belicheck! If it's 4th down and managable distance and the Eagles are around that 30-35 yard line... why not just go for it?
Let's look at the cold hard facts. Akers has missed his last 7 attempts from over 45 yards. Does anyone think the offense wouldn't have a better percentage converting 4th downs than that? Since 2004 he's only made 47% of kicks over 40 yards. Last year the Eagles offense converted 60% of it's 4th down opportunites. I'd rather put my trust in Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook and risk giving the ball back at the 30 rather than trusting Akers and risking giving the ball back past the 40.
You guys tell me. Am I crazy?
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Comments
I agree. Whether it’s Akers or a combination of Akers/Rocca/Dorenbos, Reid had to know they had a better shot of getting 1 yard than of making a 50-yard FG.
I don’t think there’s any lack of effort — I think the injuries have just taken their toll. I respect the hell out of a kicker that’ll make a tackle or run for a first down on a trick play like Akers has done in the past, but it just seems like his roster spot has been untouchable when I’m not sure it should have been the past 2 years.
Dear Andy Reid, will you stop SAYING that you have to put your players in a better position to succeed and just *&^$ing DO it.
by BrianS on Sep 30, 2008 10:19 AM EDT 0 recs
It seems like the Eagles keep waiting for him to just snap back and regain his old form… but it’s been 3 years now. We’re waiting for something that’s just not coming.
by JasonB on
Sep 30, 2008 10:44 AM EDT
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Agreed
I’d rather have Matt Prater than Akers. Time to move on.
Also, I read a very well done analysis somewhere arguing teams need to go for it on 4th down more often regardless of how crappy their kicker is, and I very much agreed with it. Maybe work on that 4th and 1 playbook a little more first though…
by jhavrk8 on Sep 30, 2008 11:10 AM EDT 0 recs
Football outsiders had a bit of a take in the PFP on going on 4th and 1 where they argued just your point…
I think it might even have been in the section on the Birds…
by cavortingEagle on
Sep 30, 2008 11:45 AM EDT
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Sorry foos - no link
It’s in the Pro Football Prospectus (PFP 500 page book).
You can get it from amazon.
Fantastic stuff in there and worth the ($15) money.
by cavortingEagle on
Sep 30, 2008 12:06 PM EDT
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Oh, I realized PFP was Pro Football Prospectus… I just thought you may have seen an article or a post somewhere that specifically talked about the data you were referring to. Thanks though!
by foos05 on
Sep 30, 2008 12:07 PM EDT
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The paper that kicked off the argument is from an economist and you can see the actual report on the link below (Warning – it’s deep). He loses me with some of those equations, but he explains his points very well. Just google this guy and you’ll get lots of articles about this theory as well, I’ll include one for ya.
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=fact-or-fiction-nfl-teams-4th-downs
by jhavrk8 on
Sep 30, 2008 1:16 PM EDT
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Thanks
Nice, I’ve been wondering where FO were getting the source – I’ll give the paper a read…
You’re right the math is dense, but it seems there’s a fair chunk of elucidation as well…
If I think I grok it, mayhap I’ll try to write up a book report…
cheers
by cavortingEagle on
Sep 30, 2008 1:48 PM EDT
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Let me just get my PS3 booted up and I’ll relay in the 4th down plays… Ask Madden is appropriate in that situation, correct?
Seriously though, I was screaming at the TV to go for it. I totally agree that if we’re not going to bring in a new kicker during the year (which is likely the case), that we should start going for it on 4th more often. I mean even if we only get a fresh set of downs and pick up 6 or 7 more yards before we get back to 4th down, at least perhaps we’d be with Akers’ new range…
by foos05 on Sep 30, 2008 11:34 AM EDT 0 recs
Amen
I cannot agree more with this entire article. I would have preferred the Eagles go for it on both downs. They were short yardage situations on fourth down. It was painful to watch those field goals. I haven’t had confidence in Akers since his hammy injury back in 2005 either.
by Loyal Lion on Sep 30, 2008 11:39 AM EDT 0 recs
Real life isn’t like Madden where anything inside 40 yards should be an automatic field goal attempt. Anyways, we’re all probably only bitching because it didn’t work out for us. For the one kick, if that ball was three inches to the left, it would’ve been in. Anyways, I don’t think we need to overanalyze and overreact to everything. No one came to play that night it definitely didn’t come down to one single play or player. The Eagles had many more opportunities that they failed to take advantage of.
Destroyer of Subject Lines :3™
by yomjoseki on Sep 30, 2008 11:59 AM EDT 0 recs
Do you have Madden ‘09?
I don’t even bother trying anything outside of 40 with Akers – not sure I would with any other kicker either…
by cavortingEagle on
Sep 30, 2008 12:08 PM EDT
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Not even Sebastien the 76-yard juggernaut from the Raiders?
by foos05 on
Sep 30, 2008 12:09 PM EDT
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maybe it’s just me, but I hook everything right
by cavortingEagle on
Sep 30, 2008 12:10 PM EDT
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eh video game kicking blows… i just go for it on 4th, no matter what
by foos05 on
Sep 30, 2008 12:10 PM EDT
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Someone mentioned getting a new kicker. I’m not sure that’s necessary as in season kicking aquisitions never seem to go well. The fact is that Akers is still a premier kicker…inside 40 yards, so use him as such. Go for it between the 40 and the 25 and inside his range take the 3. I have a feeling that there will be a pleasant surprise how often we make the 4th down and have a chance at a TD.
by TwoTonsOfIrony on Sep 30, 2008 12:12 PM EDT 0 recs
It isn't the hamstring injury
Akers actually didn’t start sucking from 40+ until last season. He was decent in 2005 (6 of 11) and good in 2006 (6 of 8).
Last year, he sucked (2 of 10).
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/akersdav01.htm
Point: It wasn’t the hamstring. That’s good news because it means whatever is wrong might not be physical, maybe Akers can fix it.
Until he does, I agree with everybody: go for it on fourth and short. Last year, the Birds hit 9 out of 15 fourth down conversions.
by Behan01 on Sep 30, 2008 12:30 PM EDT 0 recs
this proves my point
that Rocca holding could be a big part of the problem.
by CMax on
Sep 30, 2008 12:32 PM EDT
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It sucks because
I’ve met Akers before. My dad actually takes care of his kid every now and then, so hes become something like a family friend.
But, I have to admit, akers has been a liability. I think the problem is that he obsesses too much over his holder. When Koy Detmer was here and held for him, he kicked ass, and he was best friends with the guy and trusted that he would place the ball right where he wanted it every single time. Since 2005, detmer was out (except in 06 when reid brought him back for the playoffs). Ever since then, he hasn’t been the same. Of course, this is no excuse. He has acknowledged himself that he needs to chill out about the holder and just kick the damn ball. For the first time this summer he, rocca, and dorenbos the long snapper practiced for a month or so just kicking.
Personally, I think he’s having trouble, but I think he will do better this year. I think last year Rocca was still learning about placekicking, and there were a couple times I remember reading about how he accidentally angled the ball which made it go wide right or wide left. As rocca gets the game more (he has already showed how much better his punting has gotten) I think we will see improvement. I love akers too much to get rid of him, at least now. I understand he’s on the hot seat as he hasn’t done too well, but getting rid of him would be an echo of when we got rid of Trotter. It’s just sad to see the old guys go. Besides I personally have met the guy and he’s a great person, so there’s a personal aspect to the whole thing too.
As for whether we should go for it on 4th and 1, I was about to say yes, but then I remembered how we couldn’t go 1 yard in THREE DOWNS to score a winning touchdown, so…I’m not so sure. Maybe only if we have westrbook in the lineup?
by CMax on Sep 30, 2008 12:31 PM EDT 0 recs
I think
that going for the field goal on the first attempt was traditional football and that if they had gone for it on fourth and 1 and gotten denied it would have been huge for the Bears D and really early in the game. I honestly think that Akers read the wind wrong on that kick, what pissed me off is that he didn’t make any adjustments on the next kick. It looked like he made the same read on the wind and kicked it exactly the same, that is what frustrated me.
by Whodie126 on Sep 30, 2008 1:23 PM EDT 0 recs
Akers
Okay, here’s the kicks being discussed. The whole thing is BS.
2005
Week 1 – made 44 (Georgia Dome)
Week 10 – made 48 (Home)
Week 12 – made 44 (Home)
Week 14 – made 42 (Home)
Week 17 – made 49 (Home)
2006
Week 1 – made 42 (Houston)
Week 4 – made 40 (Home)
Week 6 – made 47 (Dome)
Week 11 – made 42 (Home)
Week 16 – made 45 (Texas)
Week 17 – made 41 (Home)
Week 18 – made 48 (Home)
2007
Week 1 – made 47 (Lambeau)
Week 4 – made 53 (Meadowlands)
2008
Week 2 – made 44 (Texas)
2005
Week 1 – missed 49 (Georgia Dome)
Week 1 – missed 49 (Georgia Dome)
Week 2 – missed 43 (Home)
Week 10 – missed 60 (Home)
Week 14 – missed 49 (Home)
2006
Week 2 – missed 49 (Home)
Week 15 – missed 48 (Meadowlands)
2007
Week 4 – missed 42 (Meadowlands)
Week 6 – missed 41 (Meadowlands)
Week 6 – missed 41 (Meadowlands)
Week 8 – missed 59 (Metrodome)
Week 10 – missed 53 (FedEx)
Week 13 – missed 48 (Home)
Week 14 – missed 57 (Home)
Week 15 – missed 47 (Texas)
2008
Week 4 – missed 50 (Soldier)
Week 4 – missed 47 (Soldier)
I don’t see the patterns some are blaming as excuses. Akers went 1-3 on 40+ yarders before being injured in Week 3 of 2005, then closed out 4-2 after coming back. So the “problems” started before the injury.
Several of the missed kicks are of the highly speculative 49+ yard variety. Kicks at that length generally aren’t made. Akers is 2 of 10 kicking at 49 yards and further, 4 of 8 from 46 to 48 yards, and 9 of 13 kicking from 40 to 45 yards. Surprise! The closer he gets, the better he is.
The Meadowlands also seems to be a huge factor here. Akers is 1 of 5 on long kicks at the Meadowlands since 2005. He also missed a 38 yarder there in 2005, while making four chip shots in 2005 and 2007.
So, kicking inside 40 to 48 yards, and not at the Meadowlands, Akers is 13 of 17 since 2005.
Have we located this statistical problem yet? Is this whole Tempest in a Teapot of “Akers can’t kick” a crock of shit?
by Andrew B on Sep 30, 2008 4:16 PM EDT 1 recs
Nice.
Note too that Chicago is the Windy City and take a look at what happened on his second kick…
video over at igglesblog…
er – with David Akers in the thread…
by cavortingEagle on
Sep 30, 2008 4:40 PM EDT
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Chicago
Akers made a 50, 42, 42, 40 while missing a 45 and a 39 in 2004 in Chicago. He made a 34, 23, 40 and 46 in 2001 in the Divisional Playoffs. He made a 23, 36, 27, and 32 in 2002.
I don’t see any sort of real Soldier Field problem here other than kicks over 45 yards are in general a crap shoot, and the further back you go, the harder they are to make.
by Andrew B on
Sep 30, 2008 6:09 PM EDT
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Yeah but when you limit it to that specific 48 yard criteria that changes things. Look how the stat would have changed if you limited it to between 40-49 yards. That’s another 4 misses right there.
And we can’t take the meadowlands out of it. He’s kicked there every year of his career. We’ll always have important games there.
I think it’s clear there’s a marked difference between his pre 05 performance and his post. Don’t you think he had speculative 50 yarders and kicks at giants stadium then too?
by JasonB on
Sep 30, 2008 4:49 PM EDT
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Akers at the Meadowlands
Jason:
Akers has not had a particularly successful career at the Meadowlands. Perhaps this accounts for why the Eagles have faired so poorly against the Giants under Andy Reid.
2000
Giants
Missed (length unknown by me)
Giants (Playoffs)
Made 28
Missed 30
2001
Giants
Missed 44
Made 25
2002
Giants
Missed 35
2003
No kicks attempted
2004
Giants
Made 47
Made 42
2005
Giants
Made 20
Missed 38
2006
Giants
Missed 48
2007
Giants
Missed 42
Made 53
Jets
Made 22
Missed 41
Missed 41
Made 31
Made 25
That would make him 9 of 17 career at the Meadowlands. Assuming the missed kick of unknown legnth in 2000 was over 40 yards, he’d be 3 of 9 over 40 yards at the Meadowlands. Not good.
As to speculative long kicks, he was 9 of 14 at 50 + from 1999 to 2004. He’s been 2 of 7 since. I don’t know if either of those are large enough samples to compare to each other.
In general, his 17 of 21 year from 40+ in 2004 kind of balances out his 2 of 10 in 2007 careerwise. Was either one part of a trend, or were they both flukey natural variability?
As to speculative kicks, actually, yes, he’s been asked to make more of them.
1999 he made a 53 and missed two 50+ yarders of unknown length
2000 he made a 51
2001 he made two 50’s and missed a 50
2002 he made a 51 and missed a 50
2003 he made a 52, a 57, and missed a 55
2004 he made a 50 and a 51 and missed a 53
2005 he missed a 60
2006 he had no long attempts
2007 he made a 53 and missed a 53, a 57, and a 59
2008 he missed a 50
5 seasons pre 2005 he was 1 of 3 kicking 53+ yards.
3 seasons since 2005 he is 1 of 4 kicking 53+ yards.
Yes, he’s being asked to make more speculative kicks.
by Andrew B on
Sep 30, 2008 7:25 PM EDT
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DUDE
you are a stat ass kicking machine!
"Watching Big Ben kiss the canvas nine times in Philly was like watching a guy fighting a school of sharks -- with everyone rooting for the sharks."
by 700 Level on
Sep 30, 2008 9:01 PM EDT
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this is just like what happened with vanderjagt, one year he’s the most accurate kicker in NFL history, the next he can barely hold down a job playing for the Toronto Agronauts….. Akers is still better than Vanderjagt is right now but I’d rather do what the Colts did when they saw this coming, and that’s land Vinatieri
by Remis on Sep 30, 2008 6:50 PM EDT 0 recs
with that said, Vanderjagt was the stunt double for Tony Danza when his character was kicking a field goal

by Remis on
Sep 30, 2008 6:54 PM EDT
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speaking of vanderjerk where is he now?
"Watching Big Ben kiss the canvas nine times in Philly was like watching a guy fighting a school of sharks -- with everyone rooting for the sharks."
by 700 Level on Sep 30, 2008 9:02 PM EDT 0 recs
David Akers...why did you change?
I have noted these changes in the past two years…
Short plant = miss right…
Right arm is too far back = miss right
Head up too quickly fires left shoulder forward = miss right
Plant foot has too much weight on the right side = miss right
Left arm is all over the place during approach and now it even gets above his shoulder = miss right
Approach angle is steeper than in the past = miss right
Flight path of ball is higher than it used to be = less accuracy!
David said in a newspaper article I saw “if you have an idea, I’d love to hear it”
Here it is buddy, in black and white. You’ll have to call me to learn the correct way to change these things. I do this for a living, so you’ll have to pay for it.
The cheaper way would be to just look at the You Tube thing you did. Look at the field goal you kicked down the middle and then look at the kicks you are missing. Get my point?
by hit em straight on Oct 6, 2008 10:01 AM EDT 0 recs








