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Win to Run not Run to Win

Run to win?  The myth lives!

 

Everyone is talking about this game, again, as if Andy Reid did something different from say the Bengals and Ravens games and "ran the ball", etc.  He didn't.  The Eagles executed, and in the end of the 3rd quarter and start of the 4th quarter, it was clear the Giants offense was going to do nothing, so Andy Reid ran the clock out with Westbrook.

 

This game plan was very similar to both Giants game in 2006 and 2007, with a heavy emphasis on Westbrook running up the middle (Buckhalter game 1 07), LJ Smith passes (Celek passes game 1 07) and passes to one wideout (Curtis this time until he got hurt, Stallworth in game 1 06, Brown in game 2 and 3 of 06 and Games 1 and 2 of 07).  It had near flawless offensive execution though, unlike some of those other games - no turnovers, near perfection on 3rd down, and near perfect defense (still no turnovers and no sacks) giving up zero points.  Reid clearly has seen something that allows him to take advantage of Fred Robbins in the run that other teams have not been able to replicate for the most part.  And when you convert most of your 3rd downs, you get to keep driving and attempting to score.  And without Plaxico, there was clearly little to worry about on offense by the Giants.  This allowed us to run out the clock AFTER WE WERE ALREADY WINNING.

 

Here are the keys to the game.

Eagles 3rd down conversions 12 of 18, with 3 field goal attempts on the 6 that were stopped.  Essentially, the Giants only stopped the Eagles 3 times all day, given 18 chances.

Giants 3rd/4th down conversions 3 of 14 with 1 field goal attempt.  The Giants only didn't get stopped 4 times on the day.

2nd quarter and 1st drive of 3rd quarter rushing by Eagles - 13 rushes, 73 yards and 1 TD.

 

Called Passes and Rushes by drive:

Drive 1 - 2 pass, 1 run (-5 yards) - punt

Drive 2 - 3 pass, 2 run (4 yards, -2 yards end around) - punt

Drive 3 - 2 pass, 3 run (5 yards, -1 yard, -7 yards end around) - 51 yard FG

Drive 4 - 1 pass, 2 run (3 yards, -2 yards) - punt

Drive 5 - 6 pass, 4 run (3 yards, 2 yards, 9 yards, 30 yards TD) - TD run

Drive 6 - 3 pass, 2 spike, 2 run (11 yards, 5 yards) - blocked FG TD return

Drive 7 - 9 pass, 5 run (2 yard, 4 yard ,1 yard QB sneak, 2 yard, 3 yard) - blocked FG

To this point play calls were - 26 pass, 2 spike, 19 run (2 end around).  That's a 58-42 ratio excluding the spikes.  Again, differences were 3rd down conversions, no interceptions, and offensive running success in the 2nd quarter and start of the 3rd quarter.  And its WAAAY different to start getting 5+ yard runs in the 2nd and 3rd quarter while still biasing the pass, vs. getting -2 to 2 yard runs like against the Ravens and Bengals in those quarters.

Drive 8 - 3 pass, 7 run (7 yards, 3 yards, 3 yards, 6 yards, 2 yards, 0 yards, 3 yards) - TD pass

Drive 9 - 2 pass, 11 run (13 yards, 5 yards, 0 yards, 3 yards, 2 yards, 1 yard, 4 yards, 6 yards, 2 yards, -3 yards, 1 yard) - FG

Drive 10 - 1 kneel down

Play calls to end the game by running out the clock - 5 pass, 18 run, 1 kneel down.

 

Win to run, not run to win!

0 recs  |  Comment 12 comments

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You're right

The players are executing better and that’s the biggest factor. However, you can’t deny in the past games vs the ravens and bengals eagles couldve ran it a few more times

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Dec 8, 2008 11:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't matter

The difference between an early 58-42 ratio, and something else is 2% per rush with 45 plays. So say three fewer rushes, you end up 66-34. This really doesn’t seem like a big deal. The 5 passes, 18 runs to end the game is what gave it balance. And the 3rd down execution on passing is what allowed a few more early runs.

by Andrew B on Dec 8, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

To quote Jaws

Points come from the passing game.

One thing of note – that big gainer (30yd TD run). The Giants absolutely stacked the line with 9 players and I think 8 rushing. There were 0 safeties deep. Once Westy broke trough the line it was a TD whether the LOS was the Giants 30 or the Eagles. West is healing – 3 weeks ago, he’d have been tackled or have had trouble keeping his feet moving, but now…
No practice this week for West either!

by cavortingEagle on Dec 8, 2008 11:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Schedule has helped

Since the miracle cure on the 4 day week to face Arizona, the Eagles have had 10 days between games, and are now getting 8 days. Pretty nice. 3 games in 18 days is almost like having an extra bye week.

by Andrew B on Dec 8, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

true

Next practice is thursday.
Buck will likely be back.

I’m looking for some healthy skepticism to help me regain my balance.

by cavortingEagle on Dec 8, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

what are the chances

that Curtis will be ready to suit up. He is starting to become an amazing target for Donny. Not that number one guy, but a definate number 2.

Who wants to play Leapfrog with Trent?

by anuj on Dec 8, 2008 8:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thats what Moose said

Playing on Thanksgiving every year and being home was like having an extra bye week.

"I need to do a better job of putting players in the right position to perennially come up short of expectations"

by Whodie126 on Dec 9, 2008 9:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but...

in the 2nd half, only up by 3 points, we ran the ball 18 times (compared to 5 passes) and we scored on 2 of the 3 possessions (the final one being kneel downs).

so, when running the ball more than we passed it (and while only leading by 3 points) against one of the best defensive lines in football, we essentially scored on both of our drives AND kept the ball out of the giants offenses’ hands.

i’m not saying we become a power run team, but i DO think this game was VERY telling of what could be with a better balance when it comes to play calling. the execution was great, but who says we can’t execute in the run game like that if we give our big line a chance to get going and wear out the D-line?

http://poorsportsblog.blogspot.com/

by PoorSports on Dec 8, 2008 5:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Let me get this straight...

As of the end of drive 6, while we had more called passes than runs, we were up 3 points (half time). Then in the second half, from your above stats, we passed 14 times and ran 23 times (excluding the kneel down on drive 10) and managed to stretch the lead while running, to 13 points. hmmm…..I say Run to win, and to break the other team’s resolve.

TAs for the 3rd downs, the real reason we did so much better was instead of having to convert 3rd and 10s with our inconsistent “pass on every down offense”, we were having to convert 3rd and 6 or less against the giants, on a consistent basis. You can look at stats from the beginning of football and they will tell you that your odds of converting drastically improve when you do that. Think about it…incomplete…incomplete…3rd and 10. run for 2 yards, run for 2 yards….3rd and 6. Its really a no-brainer. You always want to give yourself the best chance for success.

Note the run really started working on the 5th drive…if we hadn’t stuck with it through the first four it wouldn’t have been available when we needed it. No team in the NFL can just turn it on and run effectively whenever they feel like. You have to work on it to be good at it, we did that early and were rewarded late.

by Eagles need to run on Dec 8, 2008 7:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The lead really has nothing to do with the effectiveness of the offense chosen, because the offense doesn’t play defense. Its what kind of scoring the offense generates and what kind of yards of field position.

The Eagles scored 10 points in the first half, and should have had 16 points by the end of the first drive of the 3rd quarter while they were playing pass heavy offense. (It wasn’t the offense fault that two gimme field goals were blocked). They got a final 10 points in the last half on two run heavy drives to end the game.

The Eagles got 206 yards on 34 called passes (6.1 per) and 125 yards on 37 called runs (3.4 per). Obviously, continuous running is not going to produce the margin of victory at a 3.4 yards per carry clip.

“if we hadn’t stuck with it through the first four it wouldn’t have been available when we needed it. No team in the NFL can just turn it on and run effectively whenever they feel like. You have to work on it to be good at it, we did that early and were rewarded late.”

I’m not going to take the time to go into this now, but every assertion you make there is just total nonsense if you actually follow football. Suffice it to say, Westbrook did not rip off a 30 yard TD run because we “stuck with the run”. He did it because the defense played cover 0 with no deep safety. Any time a defense presents you with an opportunity like that, all you need is a 3 yard run, and it becomes a long TD because there is no one deep to stop the runner. And yes, you can just “turn on the run” and make it happen. The Giants have clearly showed that this year by playing run first. Their offense is normally effective from the jump and they don’t need 4 drives to “warm up”.

by Andrew B on Dec 8, 2008 10:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

okay so everyone is praising Marty for balancing out.

I agree with Andrew the way the game played out really balanced the game not the play calling. The biggest factor to our run pass ratio was our 3rd down conversions, longer drives allow for more diversity.

"I need to do a better job of putting players in the right position to perennially come up short of expectations"

by Whodie126 on Dec 9, 2008 9:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

final rebuttal

Hey, apparently I’m not the only one who thinks its a good thing to stick to the run early and have it pay off late. In fact, to quote one of the guys actually on the line executing the plays, Tra Thomas, "It’s hard to pass all the time,…If you keep pounding the rock, you might get three yards, then four yards, then no yards, but you might break the next one." This was directly in response to the perceived change in philosophy of Andy Reid’s play calling after the game against the Giants.

Its interesting how the players on the inside all felt there was a renewed commitment to the run, but everyone else not actually in the game, came up with a different conclusion after individual statistical analysis. Oh well!

To address your pass vs run yards per play stat as regards your criticism of continuous running, did you happen to catch the Panthers vs Buccaneers game? 299 rushing yards led to 38 points. I assume you realize football is about much more than stats and yards per attempt. If it were not, we should be one of the best teams in the league in terms of record right now. But we’re not. With regards to yards on offense we are one of the best teams in the league, especially passing yards, but you and I both know how inconsistent our passing offense is. There is no way we are the 5th best passing offense in the NFL. It was in fact it was an over-reliance on that pass that put us in our present predicament. I won’t repeat myself regarding all the different things running the ball impacts positively on. Read my other posts. All I know is for the first time in several weeks, the opposing team couldn’t say “okay now, if we just keep rushing McNabb, at some point we are bound to catch Andy in 5 straight passes”

Ultimately everyone has a different opinion regarding pass vs run. The NFL goes through cycles regarding offensive tendencies and how successful they are. There have been periods when the most successful teams have been those that could pass it all over the field. However, looking at the NFL today, its clear that the most successful teams are those that commit to the run and do it well.

Finally, correction…you really can’t just “turn on the run.” The Giants are successful because they made the commitment during the off season after evaluating their personnel, a 3 headed monster at RB including a bruising 265 pound tail back and an offensive line that had started the same 5 guys for over a full season. They made the decision to add a little known dude at the time named Madison Hedgecock. You should watch him play. May be the best blocking fullback in the NFL and is one of the big reasons they are so successful. You ever heard of running backs talk about how they need to have the rock in their hands to get a feel and a rhythm for running during the game? Ever heard of them talk about how they feel they get better with each carry, and as the game progresses? Well I have, from countless NFL backs.

Still don’t think 3rd and 6 is easier to convert than 3rd and 10? How about I issue a challenge to you…if we go back to calling 60:40 or 58:42 pass to run plays and that carries us deep into the playoffs, I will not type another word about the run game on this site.

by Eagles need to run on Dec 9, 2008 11:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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