So... if I was running the offense this week

So we have an upcoming game with the Vikings this Sunday.  It’s going to be our first playoff game since 2006 and McNabb’s first playoff game since the Super Bowl in 2004.  There’s been a lot made about this game matching up one team’s strengths versus another team’s weaknesses and so forth.  DVOA ranks Minnesota #4 versus the run and #5 versus the pass.  (We’re #3 in both by the way.)  So this isn’t going to be like throwing against the Rams secondary the first week of the season, like much of the media has made it out to be.  However, Minnesota does not defend the pass against RBs and TEs well, and that part plays into our hands well.  Even though their pass defense is generally a lot better than it is given credit for, I think the odds of our success increase if we’re somewhere in the neighborhood of 65/35 pass to run, especially if both Williams are playing.  The key in this game is actually going to be running the ball effectively when we do run it; not necessarily the number of times we run the ball.  And yes, I know that sounds like something Andy would say, but it’s the truth.

The Vikings get a lot of credit with their rushing defense, and it is well deserved.  But watching some of their games got me thinking that perhaps one part of their defensive unit gets a lot of credit in this area and another part doesn’t get enough…  Their D-Line is an extremely good line for stopping the run; especially anything inside, but honestly I think their linebackers make their rushing defense what it is.  Their line may create problems for offensive lines and does create plays in the backfield, but more-so it creates space problems in the interior and allows the linebackers to come down and fill gaps and make good plays on running backs.  I honestly think their LBs make this defense work.  If you take one or two LBs out of the equation, I don’t think the system works as well.

So, we need to come up with a gameplan that will give us a greater chance for success every time we do decide to run the ball, and to be honest, I think it’s going to take some creativity for this game.  I know the buzz phrase for our passing game is “match up problem,” but I think that to be effective running the ball, we need to create match up problems there as well, and using the offense we’ve used all season might not do that.  If I were Marty, I come up with a one time gameplan for this game.  I honestly think teams are approaching the Vikings the wrong way.  You can run against them, you just can’t do it against their Base D very well (due to their solid LBs).  So…  I think our best chance of success in this game may be to run 75%-80% of the game in 3 or 4 WR Sets and a lot of Shotgun.  I know right now if Andy is reading this he’s probably salivating (and not over pizza) and nodding in approval.  But wait, I didn’t say pass 75%-80% of the time.  Let me explain:  (First let me preface this by saying I could find stats tailored to this analysis, so I had to do my best with what I had.  Go figure… stats weren’t precise enough to look at what I wanted!)

First, let’s assume that I’m onto something and that it would be much easier to run against the Vikings D if they were minus a linebacker or two.  How do we go about forcing them into Nickel and Dime packages?  Exactly 3 and 4 WR sets; maybe throw in a 5 WR set every now and again by motioning Westbrook out of the backfield.  I think this really plays into our hand considering how well our WRs block; as far as the running aspect goes.  The key to running against this team is getting into space, and spreading the formation allows us to do that instantly.  So how do the Eagles do rushing out of these types of sets?

Out of Shotgun, we’ve run the ball 49 times this year @ 4.8 ypc.  Now looking at 3 and 4+ WR sets (and we’re going to have a few snaps overlap in the numbers, but I can’t filter them out), in 3 WR sets we’ve run the ball 96 times this year @ 5.1 ypc; 4+ WR sets have given us 26 @ 5.6 ypc.  Contrast that with the 123 carries @ 3.6 ypc out of 2WR set this year.  So clearly, we’ve run the ball well when we’ve gotten the other team into Nickel and Dime coverage during the year.  Why not do it this game; just more often?

Now for this idea to work, we have to run a large portion of our passing game out of the same type of formations.  So how does McNabb do in these situations? 

Actually, if you look at the numbers, McNabb functions statistically better in 4+ WR sets.  So this really shouldn’t be a problem either.

So for this to be effective, it has to be plausible for us to be able to mount a sufficient rushing attack out of these formations.  Now, to my knowledge, we’ve never really tried to do anything like this, so can NFL offenses function effectively this way?  I know no one is going to like what I’m about to say here, but let’s take a little look at the Patriots this season.  The Patriots top running backs ran the ball about 190 times this year out of 3 or 4+ WR sets and averaged about 5.4 ypc.  Now, this includes snaps taken under center and from shotgun.  How much can you possibly run the ball out of the shotgun formation?  Well the Patriots ran 359 plays from Shotgun and 110 of those were rushing plays.  That’s about 31%.  So, the Patriots showed that they can execute a gameplan running the ball a lot from the Shotgun formation particularly and out of the 3 WR and 4+ WR sets… but how effective were they for the season?  They ran for 2268 yards this year; 6th best in the NFL.  We were 22nd.  Does this system specifically work against a top rushing defense?  Well, it’s a small sample size, but the Patriots used this against one top 5 rushing defense this season; Pittsburgh.  Although they lost the game, they put up 120 yards on the ground; or about 40 yards more than Pittsburgh’s 80 ypg average. 

Now, if we can run about 30%-35% of the time from Shotgun, 3WR and 4+WR sets, I think we would probably end up with a 65/35ish ratio for the game overall, and I think this approach will give us the best chance of maximizing our rushing attempts against a good rushing defense.