DVOA matchup analysis

by NJBammer on Dec 30, 2008 11:52 AM EST

I can't wait until Sunday! This is going to be a fantastic game, and due to their terrific defense, we're in for a rough game with the Vikes.

WHEN PHIL HAS THE BALL:

I've been hearing a lot of talk about how great Minnesota is against the run, and how poor they are against the pass. Not according to DVOA! http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Minn is ranked #4 against the run, and #5 against the pass. Looking deeper into the numbers, we see they are terrific against #1 and #2 receivers (#5 and #2 in the league), but they don't defend against the pass to RBs well, so given the Eagles strengths, I foresee a lot of productivity for West and Buck in the receiving department. In fact, if we move the ball against the Vikes, that is pretty much going to be how we do it, as our offense, though good, is not overwhelming enough to beat them any other way.

WHEN MINN HAS THE BALL:

Minnesota has a bad offense, and it's gotten worse as the season has worn on. Although they are good enough to make do (#23 Total, #23 Running, #21 Passing), they don't really do anything well, except not turn the ball over. One thing they are really, really bad at is protecting the QB, giving up sacks about 9% of their passes (compare to 6% league average). Given our D's ability to stop the run (# 3), I'm assuming we're going to see a lot of 3rd and long passes. It's possible that Jackson will not make it the entire game.

OVERALL:

I expect that this will be a close game, but unless our offense turns the ball over a few times (which may happen), I don't see Minnesota scoring enough to beat us. If we get a few breaks and a) produce a few turnovers ourselves, and b) convert those goal to gos into TDs and not FGs, this game might get one sided early, which would put the whole thing on the shoulders of Jackson, which means it might get ugly late.

My prediction: Eagles 17, Minn 9

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Comments

I would agree

I expect our offense to be mediocre, even struggle at times against a decent defense. However, I fully expect to bottle up Adrian Peterson and the run game and put a huge hurting on Tavaris Jackson.

I think the key here is to get some key turnovers and put some points on the board. Making this team throw more than they want to should favor us a lot.

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Dec 30, 2008 4:05 PM EST reply actions

My prediction

Eagles 20 Minnesota 13

side note:
December 28, 1996 – Dallas’ last playoff win
February 10, 1997 – Mario Kart for Nintendo 64 is released

by 700 Level on Dec 30, 2008 4:16 PM EST reply actions

My Prediction

Eagles 41 Vikes 12

I bleed green and I piss silver and blue

by oldasquick on Dec 30, 2008 4:21 PM EST reply actions

score

Eagles 28 – Vikes 17 … peterson will keep them alive

If football had a church, Brian Dawkins would be my preacher !

by NorthPhillyKid on Dec 30, 2008 7:09 PM EST reply actions

Eagles-346 Vikings-2

by GreenInBaltimore on Dec 30, 2008 9:37 PM EST reply actions

u think they’ll get a safety? wth man.

http://www.libertyballers.com/

by Remis on Dec 30, 2008 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

botched long snap....

we decided we ran it up enough and decided to punt on 1st down. botched it.

by GreenInBaltimore on Dec 30, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions

haha

http://www.libertyballers.com/

by Remis on Dec 30, 2008 10:32 PM EST up reply actions

Good Post

i gota agree..the ONLY way i see Minni winnin is if Adrian Peterson does wat Frank Gore and Clinton Portis does against us and break to the outside….the thing with our d is we over persue alot and that leads to lots of cut backs………

Is it jus t me or was like all the gashin runs that relly hurt our D cut backs…..over pursiing D….which is good against runners that dont have vision but AP does so if we dont over pursue and make our tackles i think its a relatively easy playoff win for us

To me the Eagles are like that girlfriend that pisses u off, then u hate her, but the next morning you wake up and remember that thing u love so much about her

by XxBleedGreen5xX on Dec 31, 2008 9:19 AM EST reply actions

AP = Overrated

at least this year. A boom or bust RB who lead the league in fumbles with 9! He might reel off a few big runs against us, but he’ll leave Jackson in a whoooooole lot of 2nd and 3rd and longs, which will be very good for us.

By the way, I really got a kick out of your tagline.

"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant

by NJBammer on Dec 31, 2008 10:10 AM EST up reply actions

AP i think is just under the pressure of having such a good freshman year he cant possibly match it so he doesnt look as good this year, i think the fumble thing is jus like a phase, look at BWESTthis year in the Dallas game he had like 3 fumbles, remember last year he had like 0, that was just b/c of lack of concentration, AP undeniably is a great back, BUT yes a little overrated, this morning on ESPN First Take Jon Ritchie called him the best back in the NFL, i dont thing so, but he is on the Top three
my personal top 3 is
Brian Westbrook (hes a complete package)
LT (great…..great runner not good in other areas, BUT not as complete as BWest)
AP (still has to show versatility , but great great runner)

By the way haha thanks on the compliment

To me the Eagles are like that girlfriend that pisses u off, then u hate her, but the next morning you wake up and remember that thing u love so much about her

by XxBleedGreen5xX on Dec 31, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions