Race for the Wild Card
With 6 games to go, it looks like only the Giants and Cardinals have mostly wrapped up their divisions. (The Giants would probably need to go 2-4 to choke it away, the Cardinals probably couldn't choke it away even going 0-6, and in fact, the Cardinals could clinch their division next week with a win over the Giants and a 49ers loss to the Cowboys.)
That leaves the following teams in reasonable competition for two wild card spots, and the NFC South and Central crowns.
8-2 Panthers
7-3 Bucs
6-4 Falcons
6-4 Cowboys
6-4 Redskins
5-4-1 Eagles
5-5 Packers
5-5 Bears
5-5 Vikings
5-5 Saints
Any of these teams can fall off by losing to AFC teams or the quatrain of NFC bottom feeders (Seahawks, Lions, 49ers, Rams). But the following games have doubly important playoff implications due to the match-up of two contenders (ignoring Cardinals games, which would appear to have no bearing on their making the playoffs). In these games which don't involve the Eagles, no matter who loses, the Eagles win because it either creates more seperation or lets us gain ground:
Week 12
Packers @ Saints
Panthers @ Falcons
Week 13
Giants @ Redskins
Bears @ Vikings
Panthers @ Packers
Saints @ Bucs
Week 14
Eagles @ Giants
Bucs @ Panthers
Falcons @ Saints
Week 15
Giants @ Cowboys
Saints @ Bears
Bucs @ Falcons
Week 16
Eagles @ Redskins
Falcons @ Vikings
Packers @ Bears
Panthers @ Giants (#1/#2 seed on the line???)
Week 17
Cowboys @ Eagles
Giants @ Vikings
Panthers @ Saints
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comments
Comments
hey andrew, another great post
is this post assuming the Eagles win out or go 5-1?
by damonmoore43 on Nov 17, 2008 12:48 PM EST 0 recs
This just lays out all the remaining games the NFC playoff teams must play against each other. The Eagles could very well go 3-3 and come out in the playoffs, as 8-8 teams have made it in 1990 (1 team), 1991 (1 team), 1999 (2 teams), 2004 (2 teams), 2006 (1 team). An 8-7-1 team beats them out.
Over the past 18 years since 1990 and the expansion to 6 playoff teams, there’s only 4 years that a 9-6-1 team wouldn’t have made it in the NFC.
So lets put it this way:
Eagles close 0-6, 1-5, 2-4 – 0 chance at playoffs.
Eagles close 3-3, 2-16 chance at #5 seed, 4-14 chance at #6 seed.
Eagles close 4-2, 6-12 chance at #5 seed, 14-4 chance at #6 seed.
Eagles close 5-1, 13-5 chance at #5 seed, 18-0 chance at #6 seed.
Eagles close 6-0, 17-1 chance at #5 seed, 18-0 chance at #6 seed.
If you assume we have a 50-50 shot of winning any of our next 6 games, we have a 31% chance at 3 wins, a 23% chance at 4 wins, a 9% chance at 5 wins, and a 2 % chance at 6 wins.
If you assign those to the chance at each seed, the Eagles have a 36% chance at making the #6 seed and another 20% chance at the #5 seed.
The #3 seed is probably going to be the NFC South winner or the Cardinals. The #4 seed is probably going to be the NFC North winner. The weaker the pass defense, the better for us, which means our best scenario is the Cardinals as #3 seed and us as the #6. The Panthers, while presenting a bad passing match-up, do present a very tasty run match-up if we can rediscover strength running left.
by Andrew B on
Nov 17, 2008 2:28 PM EST
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Statistics are great
But they don’t win games. I’d be a lot more excited about our playoff prospects, if I felt like we could actually beat the better teams. I’m not entirely convinced that we have a 50-50 chance of winning each of the remaining games. But that’s why they play em. If we go 3 and 3, then if 2 of the Cowboys, Redskins or Falcons go 3 and 3 we’re out. Cowboys next two games are gimmes and the Redskins have a couple of easy games too. As you’ve pointed out, the Giants aren’t that good, so we can’t count on them knocking off the Skins or Cowboys either. I think we need 4 wins to have a real chance at a playoff spot, and beating the Cowboys and Redkins ourselves is almost a necessity.
by MJW on
Nov 17, 2008 6:22 PM EST
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Why not 50-50?
We were essentially within one play of beating every team we lost to, and within one play of getting beat by the Falcons.
I’d say that’s pretty 50-50.
Remaining schedules:
Redskins:
@ Seahawks
Giants
@ Ravens
@ Bengals
Eagles
@ 49ers
The only gimme on there is @ Seahawks. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see them lose any of the other games. You’ve got to like that they only have two more home games.
Cowboys:
49ers
Seahawks
@ Steelers
Giants
Ravens
@ Eagles
The next two games should be easy for them as you say, but they could then easily lose the last four.
Falcons:
Panthers
@ Chargers
@ Saints
Bucs
@ Vikings
Rams
Only the last game is a gimme for them. They could easily lose any or all of the other five.
Eagles:
@ Ravens
Cardinals
@ Giants
Browns
@ Redskins
Cowboys
I think the Eagles beat the Cardinals and Browns @ home. If they can get the Ravens this week, they are in really good shape with the last 3 divisional games.
by Andrew B on
Nov 17, 2008 8:14 PM EST
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easy games???
both the skins and boys lost ot THE RAMS DUDE!
Billy Penn who?
by 700 Level on
Nov 17, 2008 8:30 PM EST
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True.
And the Giants were up just 20-13 against them, 7:45 left in the 4th quarter, facing 2nd and 10 at the 50.
Still, the Rams suck.
by Andrew B on
Nov 17, 2008 11:07 PM EST
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awesome post
as bad as we have played at times this year, you have to look at this list, (forgetting yesterday’s debacle) and feel good about our chances
Billy Penn who?
by 700 Level on Nov 17, 2008 12:54 PM EST 0 recs
The news is still grim.
We’re probably still looking at 2 teams each from NFC East and South.
That means we need to pass Dallas and Washington in 5 games.
I think the only good news about the tie is that we can’t finish .500…
by cavortingEagle on Nov 17, 2008 1:06 PM EST 0 recs
my apologies for the harsh words...
but nobody wants you in here. You better hope the Birds dont pick off the Giants in a couple weeks… you’re going to have to eat a lot of words if that happens
Billy Penn who?
by 700 Level on
Nov 17, 2008 3:52 PM EST
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Eating words
Will the Cardinals beat the Giants in the desert?
On the road, the Giants only pulled away from the Rams in the 4th quarter, lost to the Browns, barely pulled it out against the Steelers, and hung on for dear life against our Eagles.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 4-0 at home this year, 6-2 last year.
I smell an upset.
by Andrew B on
Nov 17, 2008 4:12 PM EST
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Interesting Post
My question: If we could potentially get into the playoffs at 8-7-1, which I think was one of your main points, then is that really a good thing? We probably aren’t going very far in the playoffs (unless we really turn things around, but there’s little evidence of that). Would that falsely inflate the front office’s view of this team?
by ajay on Nov 17, 2008 5:17 PM EST 0 recs
I'm done feeding the troll
Let the thing starve
Billy Penn who?
by 700 Level on Nov 17, 2008 9:17 PM EST 0 recs
he has a point
we’re sitting here crunching stats when we know our team isn’t very good. I mean fuck!!!! I’m not abandoning ship but to say this team can go 5-1 lol. I actually laughed out loud! We lost to every division opponent and TIED the cinciani bengals and their bacup qb lolololol.
by Joe_D on Nov 18, 2008 1:07 PM EST 0 recs
Joe_D
when we run the table, i dont want to see you gloating about it in here.
You jumped of the bus
"and with that play the Philadelphia Eagles complete the most improbable run to a Superbowl Crown in NFL history"
-Merrill Reese (February 1, 2009)
by 700 Level on
Nov 18, 2008 3:22 PM EST
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Standards in NY
Just like life among the people of the most dishonest city in America, performance is all that matters and bad character is to be ignored at all costs.
Sports is a diversion and pasttime for me. I’d rather be proud of my team and have them lose, than cheer for a bunch of cheats, drug addicts, thugs, and faggots, and have them win.
BTW, the very worst part of Philadelphia cannot hold a candle to the shithole state of your stinking, rat-infested, filthy, diseased, urine smelling, potty-minded, AIDS-infected, trash dump, anti-American, criminal sewer, haterhoods that make up almost all of New York City. New York City is such a filthy crap dump that it is the only place I’ve ever seen a street sweeper make the city dirtier by running down the street. New Yorkers are the only evil dumb fucks in the entire universe who can stand idly by, watch a bunch of foreign terrorists kill 3000 of their fellow citizens, and then turn around the following day and protest the punishing of the guilty killers because it is somehow unfair for them to suffer. New York City is such a piece of shit that its football teams had to move out of the city to a malarial swamp to find a home – and that home in the swamp actually seems like a tropical island paradise compared to the 3rd world asshole that is Queens and Harlem where they used to play. New York City is such a dumpy shitbong that 90% of the people who lived there 35 years ago have moved out in terror and horror at what they had made it into, only to be replaced by the dregs of the sewers of all of the third world crapopolises of the planet. New York City is the only city in the entire country where if a criminal misfit breaks into your apartment and rapes and murders your wife, YOU will be the one who is prosecuted if you harm the criminal through counterviolence, known anywhere else in the civilized world as self-defense. New York City is such a diseased wasteland that it has to steal water from the Delaware in order to have pure drinking water, even though it is situated next to one of the largest rivers in the country. New York City is such a hotbed of ignorance that it was the only northern city to protest by riots fighting the Civil War. New Yorkers are so retarded that they continue to elect a government that spends twice the money of the entire state budget of Pennsylvania – most of it to subsidize the breeding and feeding of the largest population of shiftless welfare bums in the nation. Only New Yorkers are “smart” enough to run investment banks that have run the world economy into the ground, but dumb enough to not understand that rent control prevents the rental market from working and providing enough housing for the city. Only a braindead New York airhead would pay $8000 for the privilege of renting a 500 square foot apartment at $2500 per month where you have to walk up 6 floors and take your laundry to a laundromat around the corner because the cheapass landlord can’t be bothered to supply a washer and dryer. New Yorkers are so stupid that they actually think the rest of the country envies them and wants to live in their shithole of a city even as they have to go begging for bodies to Lagos, Calcutta, and Port-au-Prince just to get people to live in the city.
Your standards in NY are pretty good you say? How so? Your business hasn’t been shaken down for a kickback this month? Your roof hasn’t leaked since last year? Your super finally got around to your maintenance request 3 months later? Your car has only been broken into 5 times in the past two years? You haven’t been hit by a taxi-cab this year while crossing the street? Your homosexual boyfriend in Greenwich Village hasn’t given you a venereal disease yet this year? The mugger only got $60 this time because of the bad economy?
I’m at a loss to understand your pride.
by Andrew B on Nov 18, 2008 3:48 PM EST 0 recs
wow
"and with that play the Philadelphia Eagles complete the most improbable run to a Superbowl Crown in NFL history"
-Merrill Reese (February 1, 2009)
by 700 Level on Nov 18, 2008 4:00 PM EST 0 recs








