Why pre-season predictions are dumb

by JasonB on Dec 18, 2006 11:02 AM EST in Philadelphia Eagles News

Remember when the schedule came out? Remember how every fan and every "expert" worked out their win loss record for every team? Remember how the Eagles season was supposed to go?

The Eagles would easily rip through their weak early season schedule only to falter in the second half and be ultimately done in by three straight NFC East losses on the road.

This was the "cakewalk" part of the schedule where we'd build our cushion for the brutal second half.

@ New Orleans (L 24-27)
@ Tampa Bay (L 21-23)
Jacksonville (L 6-13)
Tennessee (L 13-31)

Then was supposed to come the impossible part of the schedule where the Eagles would squander the cushion they built early and finish in the basement of the NFC East...

@ Indianapolis (L 21-45)
Carolina (W 27-24)
@ Washington (W 21-19)
@ NY Giants (W 36-22)
@ Dallas (?????)

Can you imagine the kind of predicitions people would have given if they knew McNabb would be gone for the 2nd half?

The paradox that is the Eagles season in many ways reflects the crazy, up and down year it's been in the NFL.

The NFL network has chosen the Eagles/Giants game as one of the games of the week and will replay it on "NFL Network Replay" Wednesday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. ET and Friday, Dec. 22 at 9:30 p.m. ET

Game of the Week: Eagles 36, Giants 22
In a battle for the NFC wild-card lead, the Eagles used big plays in the second half to beat the reeling Giants.

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For everyone else's amusement

I pulled my preseason predictions back up:
Win -- Sun., Sept. 10 @ Houston

Win -- Sun, Sept. 17 Giants

Win -- Sun., Sept. 24 @ 49ers

Win -- Mon., Oct. 2 Green Bay

Win -- Sun., Oct. 8 Dallas

Win -- Sun., Oct. 15 @ New Orleans

Loss -- Sun., Oct. 22 @ Tampa Bay

Loss -- Sun., Oct. 29 Jacksonville

Sun., Nov. 5 BYE

Win -- Sun., Nov. 12 Washington

Win -- Sun., Nov. 19 Tennessee

Loss -- Sun., Nov. 26 @ Indy

Loss -- Mon., Dec. 4 Carolina

Loss -- Sun., Dec. 10 @ Washington

Win -- Sun., Dec. 17 @ Giants

Loss -- Mon., Dec. 25 @ Dallas

Win -- Sun., Dec. 31 Atlanta

Lito, Lito, Lito, Lito, Lito, Lito...

by BrianS on Dec 18, 2006 11:32 AM EST reply actions

Wow

You may be the only person that called the Tampa loss before the year.

That was a game that worried me too. There's a very telling trend in the NFL about how often teams lose the second of 2 straight road gmaes. Regardless of who the opponent is it's pretty surprising how often teams lose those games...

Which make it all the more impressive that the Eagles won last night!

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Dec 18, 2006 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Tampa

I drastically underestimated the Saints this year. I thought the Eagles would beat Dallas, which would just be this huge emotional victory, but then thought that the Saints would just be too bad for the Eagles to lose the inevitable "Letdown" game, but that they'd drop the 2nd straight road game.

When it actually came time for the Tampa game, there was no way I thought they could lose.

Lito, Lito, Lito, Lito, Lito, Lito...

by BrianS on Dec 18, 2006 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

up + down?

From a certain perspective, it seems like it has been an up and down year for the Eagles. But if you look at the schedule from the standpoint of opponent's current records, you see that the Eagles are 6-1 against teams with losing records (the Tampa loss being the outlier), 1-3 against teams with winning records (the Dallas win being the outlier), and 1-2 against teams with .500 records. Interesting. Maybe it all comes down to schedule after all - just not in the way we thought this past summer. These stats don't bode too well for the play-offs, do they?

by dave in san mateo on Dec 18, 2006 12:32 PM EST reply actions

Well

all good teams have good records against bad teams. That's just the way it is. Plus, it gets even more confusing when you look at the record of a team the week the Eagles played them. For instance, the Giants had a winning record when they faced the Eagles.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Dec 18, 2006 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

that's the point

The point is that by the end of the year we know how good teams really are whereas during the year we can be misled by pre-season expectations and early schedules. Tennessee is obviously better than the 2-7 team that the Eagles played last month, and Jacksonville appears to be better than the 3-3 team that came to Philadelphia in October. From where we sit now, it looks like the Eagles's mid-season skid had a lot to do with the quality of their opponents during that stretch. The same for the recent win streak.

by dave in san mateo on Dec 18, 2006 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

great analysis

to break it down that way really makes our birds look like a mediocre team. Essentially, I guess they are...

Fly Eagles Fly!

by klkatz on Dec 18, 2006 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

I recall posting

a list of 8 sports journalists predictions of who would win the North. Four picked the Bears. Two picked the Vikings and believe it or not two picked the Lions.

And do we even need to talk about the yearly Cardinals and Dolphins love fest?

by Adam T on Dec 18, 2006 12:39 PM EST reply actions

The Cardinals!

They were everyones' trendy pick!

And don't forget the Redskins... Everyone loved the Redskins before the year.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Dec 18, 2006 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

Prediction

I know I predicted a 10-6 season. I didn't keep any record of which Games I saw them winning. I do know that I didn't expect them to come out blazing like they did. I usually predict a split againts the competitive NFC East teams.

After the quick start I really thought my 10-6 prediction would be low... and I was excited for 12 wins.

I will be greatful for a 10-6 season now. Thought I didn't expect them to get there this way.

Fly Eagles Fly!

by klkatz on Dec 18, 2006 1:00 PM EST reply actions

I predicted 10-6 too

I thought we'd be 7-1 before the bye and 3-5 after. I had us 3-3 in the division, so we already beat my prediction with four division wins.

What I don't get is how most of the "experts" picked us to finish last. Like the Redskins and Cowboys were so much better than us. Now, timing was an issue because we got Stallworth after the preseason predictions, so our receivers weren't looking that great in the summer. But if they used losing T.O. to the Cowboys to justify picking us last, they forgot that we won divisions before T.O. ever showed up.

by Blackacre on Dec 19, 2006 12:23 PM EST reply actions